Can Tennessee Start 7-0 ATS in 2008?

Though the Tennessee Titans are off to their best start in franchise history at 6-0, the competition has not been as difficult as say Pittsburgh has faced. This week Tennessee can make a statement about the order of power in the AFC South when they play host to Indianapolis. Jeff Fisher’s club follows his lead, plays with tremendous enthusiasm and tough-mindedness. NFL bettors everywhere have taken notice, with Tennessee having covered all six contests.

Indianapolis knows a thing or two about fast starts, having started 7-0 last season, 9-0 in 2006 and 13-0 in ’05, yet are off to their slowest start in four years with a 3-3 mark through six games. But a win on the road against the undefeated Titans would not only allow to get back in the division race, it would let everyone know the five-time defending AFC South champions aren’t about to give up their perch without a fight.

Tennessee is the only other team to win the AFC South since its inception in 2002, and though the Titans managed a wild-card berth as runners-up to Indianapolis in ’03 and a third-place finish a year ago they have their sights set on the top spot.

In what was thought to be a trap game last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, the Titans kept their focus and rolled to a 34-10 victory over the rebuilding Chiefs. Rookie running back Chris Johnson (168 yards) and LenDale White (149) ripped Kansas City for 317 yards on the ground. Tennessee is 12-2 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Injuries have been a factor in the Colts uncharacteristic start. Two-time, 1,000-yard rusher Joseph Addai sat out last week’s 34-14 defeat in Green Bay with a knee injury suffered in the first quarter in Week 6. Though Addai scored four times in the first four games, he averaged only 53.5 yards per outing and 3.5 yards per carry. The Colts need him back healthy, albeit he doesn’t have the greatest track record against the Titans with 199 yards in three full games. Indianapolis was off-kilter the whole game at Lambeau Field and should have no trouble refocusing for this conflict. The Colts are 16-5 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points a game on the season.

The all-time regular-season series, including seven meetings between the Baltimore Colts and Houston Oilers, stands at 15-11 in favor of Indy. The Colts are 8-2 and 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with the Under 6-0 since 2006.

Bookmaker.com has Tennessee as a four-point favorite with a total 40. Throw out last year’s season finale in which Indianapolis was resting their starters and this will be the first time since 2003 the Titans have been favored against the Colts in meaningful game.

Indianapolis covers if they contain the Titans fourth ranked rushing offense that averages 153.8 yards per game. The Colts run defense ranks 29th, which means the Indy linebackers have to do a much better job getting off blocks and making plays. They are 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards a carry. Tony Dungy’s club has to limit mistakes, like 23 penalties in last two games. Though the running game has not been productive, OC Tom Moore must show more patience and have more rushing attempts. Indy is 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of .750 percent or higher over the last three seasons.

Tennessee covers if they do one of the things Green Bay did last week, get physical with the Colts receivers. Titans’ cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper would appear to be well equipped to slow down Indianapolis receivers by how they like to play. Coach Fisher is big on taking on challenges, find out early how bad the Colts defense really wants to stop the run, bludgeon them in the A and B gaps. The Tennessee defense leads the NFL in fewest points allowed and is 18-6 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games.

Our Monday night system looks to play on a division favorite of a touchdown or less that has won two straight games. This system is 25-8 ATS, 75.8 percent.