West Texas Shootout in Lubbock

For knowledgeable college football fans, this matchup is only unexpected to the degree that both have failed to lose in 2008. Every preseason magazine had these two Big 12 teams either second or third in the South Division. Texas Tech coach Mike Leach has his most complete team during nine seasons, being able to not only pass, but run with effectiveness and a decent defense. Texas has taken the college football world by storm, with coach Mack Brown assembling a team hungry to get better weekly and unafraid of a daunting four week schedule as challenging as any team would find in college football.

From a situational standpoint, not much more Texas Tech could ask for. The Red Raiders are undefeated at 8-0 (3-2-1 ATS) after Kansas conflict, coming home to take on hated rival and #1 Texas. Passing guru Leach catches the Longhorns on the final stop of what seemed a nearly impossible four-game stretch, with this the only true road game. In a league stuffed with potent offenses, this could be the one that could case Texas the most difficulties. Quarterback Graham Harrell makes quick decisions and unleashes the ball with more velocity than typical Lubbock chucker. Having Michael Crabtree and other talented wideouts doesn’t hurt, all being able to take the pigskin long distances on the various crossing routes. The biggest change has been on the other side of the ball, where the defense can actually stop opponents, however is vulnerable to the pass ranking 98th position nationally. Texas Tech is 8-4 ATS as home underdog, but just .500 under Leach.

The legend of Colt McCoy continues to grow, with one superb performance after another. "We need to continue for him to be who he is," said Texas coach Mack Brown. "I don't know if we need him to be any better." His uncanny accuracy and decision-making is setting him apart from the pack and the newcomers that are emerging off coach Brown’s bench only add to the weaponry. The Texas defense will not be haled among the elite ranked at 44th nationally in total defense; nonetheless they make plays when they count the most in such as offensive-minded league like the Big 12. Think back how they shutdown Oklahoma in the second half and stopped high-powered Missouri until they had built a 35-0 lead.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 3.5-point favorites, with a total of 74.5. In looking at the Total both teams have a commonality. The Horns are 21-5 OVER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better and the Red Raiders are 13-3 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or higher.

If anyone is looking for a defensive struggle, better find a MMA match, as this Big 12 confrontation will be about as they say in the South, Aw-fense. The Red Raiders have given up just three sacks, which Texas defense is capable of in a half. Harrell is going to have to be on target and steady. Texas Tech will have to run enough to balance the offense, and they are 15-5 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 90 or less rushing yards a game.

The Longhorns have already faced a slew of outstanding quarterbacks and won’t be overwhelmed. Their biggest advantage is they have had the best field general in each contest in McCoy and Texas Tech will have to stop him. The Texas running game has been gaining confidence and churning out more yardage with regularity. Texas has covered four of their last five road games against teams with winning records.

Texas leaves the comforts of Austin and is 4-8-1 ATS on the Big 12 road. This Texas tussle originated 80 years ago and the home team is 7-3 ATS the last decade. The favorite is 6-9 ATS in the last 15; however November is when the Horns do their best work with 19-9-2 ATS record.