Checking out NBA Season Win Totals

Living in Las Vegas for many years and being a season ticket holder for UNLV basketball and football and thus a long-time observer of Mountain West Conference sports, the only thing that surprised me more than Utah center Andrew Bogut being the first player drafted in the 2005 NBA draft by the Milwaukee Bucks was quarterback Alex Smith from Utah being the first player drafted in that year’s NFL draft.

Now mind you, I don’t have anything against the University of Utah nor even the Beehive State in general. But I watched these guys first hand perform in college and I just couldn’t see either one of them being worthy of the title of “America’s Most Wanted Draft Choice”.

Well, maybe Alex Smith will change positions and turn out like former All-American Kansas QB Nolan Cromwell, who was drafted in the second round by the LA Rams as a defensive back. Cromwell went on to play in four straight Pro Bowls.

While Andrew Bogut isn’t wearing a cape and performing in All-Star dunk contests, he is quietly turning out to be an upper quality post man in the NBA. Which leads us to our first season-win wager for the 2008-09 NBA season.

Take Milwaukee OVER 30.5 wins

I have had the good fortune of having traveled around the country, and even the world (if Arkansas counts), in my short lifetime (I plan on living to be 105. I want to see the Kansas City Royals in another World Series). However, I have never been to Milwaukee. My wife is dying to go so she can experience the “Laverne and Shirley Tour” and a first hand visit to the Shotz Brewery.

The Milwaukee Bucks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001. That was their zenith this century. Milwaukee won 26 games last year, down from 28 the year before. That was one of only three instances out of twelve possibilities over the past four seasons where an NBA team fell below 30 wins for the season and did not improve by at least eight games the following season.

The Bucks have a new General Manager, John Hammond. He was VP of Operations for the Detroit Pistons for a number of years, a very successful franchise. Hammonds had turned down other offers in the past, perhaps he just liked working down the street from the Shotz plant.
The Bucks have a new coach, fiery Scott Skiles. Skiles won’t win any personality awards with players, but he will improve a team immediately. Defense will be the focus along with a new sense of discipline.

The Bucks decided to play for the now and not the future in trading away young Chinese seven-footer Yi Jianlian to the Nets. They lost potential in exchange for a sure thing. Jefferson will remove a lot of pressure from Michael Redd to be the main scorer every night.

Center Bogut has turned into a legit scoring option with 38 double-doubles & is a good shot blocker and should improve again this year. The X-factor is PF Charlie Villanueva. He just doesn’t always show up. (which will give him an immediate reservation to Coach Skiles doghouse). In games last year that Charlie V. played at least 35 minutes, he averaged 25.4 points and 10.8 rebounds. Maybe he just needs to be in the game and not waiting on the bench.
The weak spot is at point guard where former Sonic (remember them?) Luke Ridnour resides. However, we aren’t asking the Bucks to win the division title, just get into the 30’s in total wins. Something I feel very comfortable in putting my money on.

Take the Portland OVER 43.5 Wins

Okay, I have to admit a bias for the GM of Portland, former point guard for the 1988 national champions of my alma mater, the University of Kansas, Kevin Pritchard. Besides Pritchard’s talent of making shots off-balance, in my eyes his most remarkable talent was being able to have a grizzly five-o’clock shadow beard every single day of his college career. He is the only guy I have ever seen at that age look older than Greg Oden!

Pritchard has done a remarkable job in building the Blazers through a myriad of moves in the past few years. I watched Brandon Roy in the Vegas Summer League a few years ago and proclaimed him the future rookie of the year. The man was unbelievable.

Portland now has possibly the best rookie with last-year’s injured center Greg Oden. Oden has been impressive in pre-season and gives the team an aspect many teams only wish to have.
An acquisition that many people are excited about is Spaniard 6-5 Rudy Fernandez who helped Spain to the Silver Medal in the Olympics. He attacks the rim and will get to the line.
PF LaMarcus Adridge made a quantum leap in his second year and could give the Blazers effective high-low action with Oden. The Blazers have very good front court depth with Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, and Joel Przybilla.

The biggest preseason surprise has been French draftee SF 6-8 Nicolas Batum, mostly known for his defense. The team also plays defense finishing in the top ten in most categories. Getting G Martell Webster back from injury into the season will be a plus. PG is the weak spot but Steve Blake is steady.

Portland won 41 games last year. They need to improve defensively but having Oden in the lane will help. They are a better team this year and should eclipse the OVER in season wins.
Other plays that I have made and recommend:

Memphis OVER 22.5 wins
Charlotte UNDER 36.5 wins

Good luck, it should be a fun season!

Note: Jim Kruger is a friend of 3Daily Winners and owns Vegas Sports Authority.