Double Digit NFL Dogs are Dastardly

Aside from the day of the week this game is being played, will anything be different from the first meeting between the Bengals and Steelers? Not unless Carson Palmer makes a miraculous recovery and suddenly starts at quarterback for Cincinnati having the same abilities as he possessed in 2005, the Bengals last trip to the postseason. He missed the Oct. 19 meeting when the Steelers crushed Cincinnati 38-10 at Paul Brown Stadium. On that day, the defense led by James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons met at Ryan Fitzpatrick’s helmet, sacking him seven times, along with numerous other “welcome” hits, as Palmer started nursing a sore right elbow.

Willie Parker Pittsburgh should be a go unless his shoulder and/or knee received a failing grade following last Sunday’s 11-10 victory over San Diego at Heinz Field. He chipped in with 115 yards on 25 carries, while Mewelde Moore remained involved in the offense with five catches for 33 yards. Even though Parker won’t practice full-tilt in the days leading up to this game, Cincinnati’s steadily improving defense still won’t be too pleased to see him. Prior to missing Week 6, Parker had 682 yards and six touchdowns in the previous six meetings between these teams. A year ago he totaled 213 yards and one score as the Steelers swept the annual series they now lead 47-30 all-time. Food for thought is the home team is 2-11 ATS in this division rivalry.

Besides failing to protect Fitzpatrick in the first meeting, the Bengals couldn’t sustain drives. They were 4-for-16 on third-down conversions and Fitzpatrick averaged only 7.8 yards per completion. His longest pass went for just 19 yards to wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who has been his usual steady self with at least seven receptions in five straight games, including 12 in last week’s 13-13 tie with Philadelphia. Cincinnati is actually known in betting circles for playing well right now with 20-8 ATS record in road games in weeks 10 through 13.

Bookmaker.com has Pittsburgh as 11-point favorites, not a number you often seen on the board for football. It is interesting to note double digit favorites are 1-17 against the spread this year, with the Bengals having nabbed a pair of those wins. The total opened at 36.5 at many sportsbooks and has fallen to 34 during the week. Could it have anything to do with Cincy averaging 13.8 points a game and the Steelers being 90-17 ATS when they allow 14 or less points?

The Cincinnati defense has shown improvement of late, being more physical and aggressive, however that has been at home, on the road they have given up 27 points per game. The Bengals are 3-18 ATS away when facing a team with a .700 SU record or higher and that figure is sure to stay in the negative unless they can find a way to protect Fitzpatrick, since any life insurance company won’t touch him as many hits as he has been taking.

Pittsburgh needs to take the “park” out of Willie Parker and let him roam. After missing five games, Parker’s legs will be fresher than Charlize Theron on the red carpet, up against players that have 10 hard-hitting contests under their belts. The Steelers need to be mentally prepared on a short week against inferior opponent, even if they are in same division, as they are sporting 5-15 ATS mark as a favorite of 10 or more points, with average margin of victory under eight.

The always popular (?) NFL Network will have this Thursday night telecast starting at 8:15 Eastern and hopefully they have the sound mechanics solved, so it doesn’t sound like your listening to a local high school broadcast. Thursday road teams that were an underdog in last game are 5-19 ATS.