MNF in Buffalo has Two Quarterbacks who can wing it

As far as Mr. Quinn’s long anticipated first game at quarterback in the NFL, Brady earned an ‘A’ for the Browns last Thursday night but the rest of the bunch got a failing grade as Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) slipped further out of playoff contention with a crippling 34-30 loss to visiting Denver.

The Browns second collapse in five days was no fault of Quinn, who completed 23 of 35 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns and no turnovers. Both scoring tosses went to tight end Kellen Winslow, who had 11 catches for 111 yards. Cleveland also had a season-high 160 yards rushing; however, its defense was torched by Jay Cutler and allowed 564 total yards—the second-most produced in Broncos history. Cleveland is 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons.

Barring injury, there’s no turning back for the Browns. Quinn’s the starter; Derek Anderson’s the backup and likely trade bait during the off-season. Sooner or later it had to happen, and the last straw came in Week 9 against Baltimore when Anderson threw an ill-advised, game-sealing interception that Terrell Suggs brought back for a touchdown.

In Buffalo, Quinn will face a defense that’s allowed only eight passing touchdowns in nine games. But the Bills, 5-4 (4-5 ATS) after last week’s 20-10 loss at New England and mired in a three-game funk, are having trouble getting to the quarterback (14 sacks) and forcing turnovers (12). The Bills are 14-2 ATS after playing the Patriots.

Buffalo has only one win and cover since September and they’ve cracked 20 points just once during the same span. Many fans in Buffalo are lobbying for more carries for running back Marshawn Lynch, who has yet to surpass 100 yards in a game in 2008 after doing so three times in 13 starts as a rookie. However, he does have six touchdowns for a team that 11-1 in November as home favorite versus a non-division team.

Last year’s meeting between these teams was a classic old school viewing. Played in a blizzard in Cleveland, the Browns won 8-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals and a safety. Winds gusted to 40 miles per hour, and Anderson and Trent Edwards combined to complete 22 of 57 passes (38.6 percent) but neither turned the ball over. The victory gave the Browns an 8-5 lead in the all-time regular-season series.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as five-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Bills are 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record the last two years. A sharp contrast in totals trends is noted for this Monday night affair. Cleveland is 8-1 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game and coach Dick Jauron’s squad is 6-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread since 2006.

Cleveland covers if they change up a little more this week, being more aggressive in setting up passing game with Quinn and letting Jamal Lewis pound away up the gut later in the game. The former Fighting Irish star showed good poise in throwing short and medium routes and should take shots deep to Braylon (concrete hands) Edwards. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has to be wiser to not expose his cornerbacks like last week, since they lack confidence and can be beaten. The Browns are 22-11 ATS after one or more consecutive spread losses.

Buffalo covers by playing the right opponent at the right time. The Bills have rushed for a sliver over 80 yards in losing four of five. The Browns surrender 145 yards on the ground, making this the right moment for Buffalo to get running game back in order. It’s becoming more obvious Trent Edwards, like most quarterbacks does better with good ground attack and is not nearly as comfortable having to play passer all game. Run the pigskin against weak Cleveland run defense and throw shorter passes to rebuild Edwards confidence. Can Quinn chuck the ball around the gridiron, find out be taking away the Browns running game. The Bills are 19-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

This week’s Monday night system is to Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in last two games. This means voting against the Browns, with this system 20-8 ATS, 71.4 percent and racking up earlier win against Denver when they lost to New England 41-7.