I love handicapping and betting the NBA as well as enjoy reading articles and books about the same. I continuously read or talk to people that say there is no way to beat the NBA on a regular basis. I understand why they feel that way. It can be very frustrating to watch a team blow a 20-point second-half lead or an elite team lose outright to a cellar-dweller. If you are going to bet the NBA, you first have to realize those type of games are going to happen. The NBA is the most situational sport to handicap bar none. There are games with teams that have no rest versus teams with two or three days rest. There are teams that have a non-conference game in between two divisional games. If you just handicap NBA games based on fundamentals, I believe you are missing the big picture and will have a very difficult time in winning on a consistent basis.There are as many different thoughts and ideas on how to handicap the NBA as there are people that bet it. As I did last year, this season I will again write about betting myths, handicapping fallacies, and other pertinent points involving betting the NBA. The point is to help readers understand what handicapping the NBA entails and how to make money at doing so.
I just read an article that somebody had written and put on the Internet talking about how to handicap the NBA. Their first rule was to eliminate any game with a double-digit point spread. If you would have done this last year, you would have immediately eliminated 19.6% of all regular season games, 237 games. That is one reason why I love the NBA: there is a plethora of games and they happen every single day, even Christmas and Thanksgiving. I get to pick and choose what games I bet on but the oddsmaker has to put lines and totals up for every game. In my mind, I get to cherry pick which gives me the advantage.
Saying to eliminate double-digit dogs from betting consideration caught me by surprise because there are some very good trends involving double-digit dogs that are worthy of betting. Yes, they may take some work to uncover, but isn't that is what handicapping is all about? Anybody who says to not even consider games with double-digit dogs needs to quickly re-examine their line of logic.
A great trend that I found on the StatFox FoxSheets is to bet on a road double-digit underdog when it is playing a team that has lost two of its last three games. The qualifier is the double-digit favorite has to be a team with a winning record but less than a 60% winning percentage. Over the past five years, betting on this trend, you would have a 31-9 record, 77.5%. The double-digit dog sees a vulnerable team in their opponent as they have dropped some games recently and they aren't a first-tier NBA team. The dog definitely has some bite to it. Its bite gets bigger to the tune of 16-2 ATS if the dog was playing at home in their previous game.
Let's look at some other profitable trends involving double-digit dogs. A team's rest and their opponent's rest can have a factor in the outcome of a game. Double-digit dogs over the past five years that have rest and are playing a team who played a game yesterday don't give us a trend worth betting on a side, but we do have a 60% winning wager betting on the Under. That is an easy-to-find situation that pays nicely.
There are many factors to look at in handicapping the NBA. One qualifier to take into account is the quality of the teams based on their winning percentage. If our double-digit dog is winning only 30% of less of it's games, not a very good team, and they are playing a team with a 60% or better winning percentage, the Under happens 57.1% of the time, 76-57, over the past three years. We can improve our winning percentage to 64% if both teams have played their previous game on the road.
A lot of handicappers like to bet on teams that have recently covered the spread on a better than average basis. It is best to look at very basic trends and to add different qualifiers to such teams. Let’s start with a team that is on a 3 game ATS covering streak as a double-digit dog. Again, there is nothing worthwhile in betting on the double-digit dog, just a 51.4% winner over the past five years. However, if you bet the Under in such a situation, you would be winning 63.2% of your bets. Move that winning ATS streak up to at least 4 straight games and you are cashing your Under tickets 66.7% of the time.
How about if a team has covered the point spread in at least 4 or more of their last 6 contests and now they find themselves getting 10 or more points by the linesmaker? You do have a 56.8% winning bet on the big dog, but a much better money-maker is betting the Under in such games. With that wager you have a 70.5% winner, 31-13, over the past three seasons. Yeah, I’ll take a look at double-digit dogs.
A more basic trend involving double-digit dogs is if the lined total is 180 or lower, just play the Under and you have a 73.9% winner over the past three years.
This brings me to a point that really needs to be brought up. I don't like to go back very many years when using a specific totals range as scoring in the NBA has changed over the years. A totals range in the 170's was more prevalent five years ago than it is today. In 2003, there were 279 games during the regular season with a lined total in the 170's. Last year there were only 15 games with that low of total posted by the linesmakers. Looking at the other end, lined totals of 210 to 220, there were only three in all of the 2000-01 season. Last year there were 173.
Incidentally, 55.3% of those games with that total range last year went Over.
To the people who are immediately eliminating handicapping NBA games with double-digit dogs, shame on you. You are missing some very good betting opportunities by putting blinders on.
Jim Kruger is a basketball expert and is the main man for Vegas Sports Authority.
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