First Monday Night Home Game for Texans

In the first Monday night game ever at Reliant Stadium, Houston will go for its third straight win against Jacksonville on its home turf. While both of these teams appear headed home in January, recent get-togethers between these two have been interesting.

Case in point: The Jaguars won the earlier meeting in Week 3 on a 37-yard field goal by Josh Scobee in overtime to prevail, 30-27, failing to cover the 6.5-point spread on Sept.28. Kris Brown tied the game up on a 47-yarder with a second left, but consecutive David Garrard passes to Matt and Greg Jones, no relation, in the extra stanza set up the game-winning field goal. Matt Schaub was brilliant that day with 307 passing yards and three touchdowns in the losing cause.

The loss of Schaub hurt any chances the Texans even had of heading to the postseason and his replacement, Sage Rosenfels, has been subpar. Houston finally won without Schaub, beating Cleveland 16-6 behind a breakout game from a sagging defense (three interceptions, including two of Brady Quinn). This was just the Texans second road win and cover in 13 games.

The emergence of rookie running back Steve Slaton has been one of many rookie tailbacks who have stepped up in a big way in 2008 and his 774 yards and six touchdowns are proof of how important he has been. Slaton has also caught 32 passes and hasn’t fumbled.

Like Slaton, wideout Andre Johnson has also emerged after a slow September. Since the beginning of October, Johnson has caught 76 passes for 892 yards and three touchdowns. Playing against Jacksonville is a real boost of confidence for Houston, who is 7-6 and 10-3 ATS versus the Jags.

Beside San Diego, there hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville, which sits at 4-7 with 3-8 against the spread record. Losses to Cleveland, Cincinnati and Tennessee really did the team in and rumblings about head coach Jack Del Rio’s job security have surfaced again.

Garrard has failed to continue the success and progression from a year ago and has only nine touchdown passes through 11 games. The lack of production from Garrard has not been contagious to Maurice Jones-Drew, who leads the team with 11 touchdowns. With Jones-Drew reaping all the fruit, the cupboard has been bare for fellow running back Fred Taylor, who has yet to score and is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry.

Bookmaker.com has Houston as a three-point favorite, with a total of 48. This will be only the third time the Texans have been favored in this series in 13 meetings, thou they were an expansion team early on. With Monday night games on 12-1 OVER roll this season, this one is worth a look also. The Jaguars are 8-1 OVER as a road underdog over the last two seasons and the Texans are amazing 10-0 OVER versus AFC South opponents over the same time span.

Jacksonville covers if they protect Garrard, who has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks. The patchwork offensive line is springing more leaks than a White House classified report. The Houston run defense is beatable, meaning Jones-Drew and friends can have enough moments to matter. The passing game has become real predictable. Any empty backfield means slant to Matt Jones or seam route to Mercedes Lewis, with bailout to Jones-Drew. Throw down the field and maybe the Jags improve to 13-3-1 ATS as division road underdogs.

Houston covers if they keep finding Johnson, since they have won four of the six games he has 100 yards or more receiving. His presence has opened up Kevin Walter, who has seven touchdowns this season. Their running backs are beat up; however spot production is necessary against pedestrian Jaguars defense. The defense forced five turnovers last week, unlikely to happen again, but the same aggressive attitude could take the Texans to 12-5 ATS hosting division rivals.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any Monday night road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in consecutive games. This system is 20-9 ATS, 68.9 percent.