I don’t know how many NBA sports bettors ever think about the differences in the time of the season and what influence, if any, it might have on which team will cover a point spread or what games in what situations might go Over or Under the lined total? Is this a valid angle to look at?Living in Las Vegas and having gambled in all capacities for more years than I care to remember (those cocktail waitresses coming around all the time playing you with free drinks might have something to do with my memory insufficiencies), I’ve seen all types of beliefs, superstitions, methodologies, mantras, etc. of people who sit in the sports book, in front of slots and video poker machines, and at the card and dice tables.
Standing at the rail of the craps table, or more likely leaning on it, I’ve watched people increase their wager tenfold because somebody has thrown three naturals in a row, 7 or 11, on the come out roll. Their logic is he’s hot and he will roll another 7 or 11 winner giving them enough money to pay the cover charge to the casino’s super nightclub with a party being hosted by Corey Feldman. They don’t realize, or forget (those cocktail waitresses fault again?) that every roll of the dice is an independent event with prior results having no effect on the upcoming roll.
I think the phrase “I’m due”, “he’s due,”, “they’re due”, or for heaven’s sake, “somebody is due”! is one of the most frequently-uttered axioms in gambling. “I’m down $400 in blackjack, I’m due to win”. Well, maybe if you would learn to double-down when you have a total of ten and the dealer has a four showing, you wouldn’t be losing so badly. It is also one of the most fruitless expressions there is not just in gambling, but in life. I went through six years of college thinking I was due for an “A” in a class, any class. It finally happened in Bowling 101. I was so ecstatic until I found out that anybody who showed up for every class got a perfect grade. I guess I was somewhat ignorant thinking my 119 average on the lanes would achieve such a high grade.
It is not just a superstition or a wild belief that certain times of the season have certain tendencies. Just like at the beginning of a new baseball season, the first 30 days has some strong trends as many teams are getting used to working with new teammates on both offense and defense. There are always a few new coaches or changes in systems that teams have to become fluid with. December has its own certain trends that occur that not many people are aware of. These aren’t all 60%+ winning systems. They are more like tendencies to give you an edge, which in betting the NBA, it is very important to have any edge you can get.
Getting an edge is easy for December games. Since the beginning of the 2004 season during the month of December, away dogs have cashed a ticket 54.1% of the time. Except for the last couple of weeks of the season in April, December is the only month that has greater than a 50.5% winning rate for road dogs. That is as basic as you can get. Does this mean you should blindly bet on away dogs in December? In my opinion it doesn’t, but it does make me look at road dogs first before considering a home favorite. It’s nice to start capping a game with a 4.1% edge.
A situation that has averaged about nine occurrences a season but is worth looking for due to such a high winning percentage is: Since the 2002 season, a team off of a road win of 20 points or more has a 31-15 ATS record in December, 67.4%. There is only one other month with even a winning record in this situation, 28-22 in the month of March. The linesmaker doesn’t catch up with shading the line enough this early in the season. By January he does with the result of a 16-26 ATS record for the team off the big road victory.
How about following an easy trend for December that gives you two-for-one results: winners in both the side and the total? This out of sight trend only entails playing on teams that have won two road games in a row and also playing Over the lined total in that game. In December over the past three years, you would have cashed 15 out of twenty tickets on the winning side, one push, and 17 out of 21 times on the winning total. You don’t have to be a maverick of a handicapper to make money betting that trend.
A general rule many handicappers follow is to play on teams that have lost a couple of games in a row. They believe the line will be adjusted enough so the losing team is getting some value. This isn’t the case in December games. Teams that have lost two straight games only have a losing ATS record in that third game during one month of the season. And naturally that month is December. Just as in one of our earlier examples, the line has not adjusted accordingly this early in the season.
As in most sports, revenge can be a great tool to look for when handicapping games. First, in this example, we have to exclude April where you have about two weeks left of the regular season and a lot of funny stuff can happen such as teams tanking games to achieve a good draft spot, teams with playoff spots cinched that are resting regulars, and teams looking at young players to determine their future with the squad.
So, excluding April, if you just blindly played on a team seeking revenge from a same-season defeat, you would make money in every month over the past three years except what month? Move to the head of the class (or the front of the betting line) if you said December! Playing on same-season revenge-seeking teams in November, January, February, or March, means you would have a winning record of 55.5%. If you have played the NBA before, you will know that is not a bad record to hang your hat on. Maybe same-season revenge-seeking teams in December get into the holiday spirit as they only cover the point spread 45.5% of the time.
Pay attention to these December trends to help make you money. Right now, I am in the middle of a tough bowling match, but not to worry. I’m due to pick this 7-10 split up.
Jim Kruger is a noted NBA handicapper and owner of Vegas Sports Authority.
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