New Year's Eve Treats

New Year’s Eve means the first of 15 bowls over the next three days. This is no place for the droopy-eyed sports bettor, this where you go on the attack. This is not the time to drink too much or eat too much. Life is all about moderation. No you don’t need to be a hermit, it’s not like the Peach Bowl is must see TV, rather enjoy the evening have laughs with friends and check your bets frequently however slick you have to be to pull it off. Preparation is the key is watching all these games over the 72 hours and I pity the fool who thinks he’s superman and parties like it’s 1999 and is going to make power-nap work in the context of halftime without having practiced. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. Houston (-5, 63)
Amon Carter Stadium – Fort Worth
12:00E ESPN

It’s déjà vu all over again for Air Force and Houston, opponents for a second straight year in this bowl. The Cougars won last year, 34-28, covering the number on a late field goal. At 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, the Cougars are looking to culminate its best season since winning 11 games in 1979. Houston is averaging 43.9 points per game and a nation’s-best 581.1 yards per game on offense. Air Force was 7-5 and 6-4-1 ATS with just a 1-5 record vs. bowl teams. The Falcons rushed for 273.6 YPG this season, fourth nationally, and will look to take advantage of a Cougars defense that allowed 5.0 yards per rush.

Why watch and wager- Houston’s a good play if one believes they can dictate tempo. The Cougars will want to play fast with Case Keenum hitting receivers all over the field, which presumably leads to touchdowns. Houston has covered their last five games off a loss and the defense will have to be disciplined (unlikely) to stop Air Force attack. The Cougs are only 1-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Air Force is a good play if you believe they impose their will on Houston. The Falcons like the other military schools play hard for 60 minutes, which is not always the case for Houston. If Air Force establishes running game, the undisciplined Houston defense can be gashed over and over and if they can keep continual pressure on Keenum to frustrate the Cougars, those points look inviting, considering they are 19-9 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

Sun Bowl
Stanford vs. Oklahoma (-10, 55)
Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso
2:00E CBS

El Paso natives are looking for a better showing than the 3-0 snore-fest a year ago. This bowl has typically been an exciting one, dominated by underdogs, 11-1-1 ATS prior to last year. The Pac-10 has won five straight games (3-2 ATS). All of this could bode well for Stanford, which comes in as a heavy underdog to Sooners without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. The Cardinal were 8-4 (7-5 ATS) this season to earn their first bowl bid since 2001. Oklahoma was 7-5 (4-7-1 ATS) and mostly inconsistent team. The Sooners have lost five of their last six bowl games both SU and ATS, with the one win coming in non-BCS ’05 Holiday Bowl.

Why watch and wager- This matchup could be called the “Backup Bowl” as neither will have their original signal caller, which will dramatically impact the outcome. Tavita Pritchard is in charge of completing passes for Stanford so running back Toby Gerhart doesn’t have face what would look like two dozen red helmets in the box. Under coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal is 7-0 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Though the Sooners defense wasn’t as strong as expected, they had their moments especially against teams that like to run the ball. In November encounters, they stuffed both Texas A&M (59 yards) and Oklahoma State (62 yards) and are wholly capable of doing the same against Stanford, without the threat of the pass. Boomer Sooner’s bowl record under Bob Stoops has been lousy of late, however Oklahoma is 11-4 ATS after allowing 175 or less yards in previous game.

3DW Line –Oklahoma by 7

Texas Bowl
Missouri vs. Navy (+6.5, 52)
Reliant Stadium – Houston
3:30E ESPN

Navy (9-4, 5-6-1 ATS) has always been a very competitive team in bowl games (7-3 ATS), but comes into this year’s Texas Bowl looking to snap a three-game postseason losing streak. The Midshipmen have proven a predictable team when it comes to bowl games lately, going 4-1 ATS and 5-0 Over the total. Missouri provides the opposition, which rallied to an 8-4 (4-7 ATS) finish by winning four of its final five games, topping the 400-yard mark each time. The Tigers are a heavy favorite, which could prove important since the chalk is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the history of this game, including a 3-0-1 ATS record with lines of 6.5 points or more.

Why watch and wager- Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert should be able to pick out receiver Danario Alexander among others, since Navy generates little pass rush and is in the bottom 20 percent in forcing negative plays. If Gabbert finds open receivers, that makes RB Derrick Washington that much more dangerous opening up all kinds of possibilities for squad that is 13-3 as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite. Navy covers the number by establishing fullback Vince Murray. If the Middies puncture the center of Tigers defense, that opens up quarterback Ricky Dobbs on the edges. Dobbs is the best passer Navy has had in decades, and immensely effective in play-action off the fullback dive for long gains. The Midshipmen are remarkable 71-44 ATS as underdogs the last 17 seasons.

3DW Line –Missouri by 3

Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State +2.5, 48.5)
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe
6:00E NFL Network

Minnesota (5-6-1 ATS) is one of a handful of teams playing in the same bowl game that it did a year ago. The Golden Gophers have become quite familiar with the Phoenix area, making third trip to Tempe in last four years. Unfortunately, they lost two previous contests. This will be the first time Minnesota is favored, despite 6-6 record in the regular season. Iowa State (7-4 ATS) shares that same record and is in a bowl for the first time since 2005. The Cyclones are looking to extend a three-game winning streak by the Big 12 in this bowl, one that has been high scoring and 13-3-1 Over since 1992. The underdog is 8-4 ATS the last dozen years.

Why watch and wager- The records of these two schools suggest just another meaningless bowl game, but that’s hardly what the coaches are thinking. Iowa State has posted win totals of 4, 3 and 2 the last few years, for a total of nine, thus a seven win season with a bowl win for first year coach Paul Rhoads would be an amazing accomplishment. Throw out a 16-13 victory over South Dakota State on Nov.14 and Minnesota is 0-9 (4-5 ATS) playing big boy football once the calendar flips to November the last three years. QB Adam Weber has to keep his wits about him for Minnesota. Yes, he taken a pounding and was gun-shy the last few games and if doesn’t correct this feeling, Golden Gophers drop to 0-5 ATS as bowl favorites. The Cyclones are not going to generate a lot of points, which means the defense has to step up and put the Gophers in a hole. Though mostly against the Hawkeyes, Iowa State is 10-2 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

3DW Line –Minnesota by 1

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (+5.5, 49.5)
Georgia Dome – Atlanta
7:30E ESPN

The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year. Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS) is favored after finishing 9-3, winning its last four games both SU and ATS, conceding just 8.8 PPG. The Hokies haven’t been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS since 2001. Tennessee (7-5 SU & ATS) shares that same bowl record in its eight games and has gone Under the total in five straight bowl battles, including twice in the old Peach Bowl. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.

Why watch and wager – For each of these teams, the goal is the same it’s just the method in which they get there is the difference. New coach Lane Kiffin was able to harness Jonathan Crompton from a mistake-prone quarterback into one that make better decisions and cut down interceptions. This was helped by Montario Hardesty who used his senior season to blossom and Crompton had deception on his side with a running game. In spite of alarming defensive injuries, the Vols held together under DC Monte Kiffin and are is 20-8 ATS away from Knoxville playing a team with 75 percent or better win percentage. This is important game for the stature of the ACC and Virginia Tech. The conference has started 1-3 SU as a bowler and Virginia Tech is in search of fifth straight 10-win season. Did you know Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams actually gained more yards rushing and had more touchdowns the Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Neither did anyone else and if he can break the century mark against the Vols, the Hokies should be good. The biggest concern Frank Beamer is lack if pass rush, exposing mediocre secondary. The Hokies are 32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

3DW Line –Virginia Tech by 6

Defense could reign at Holiday Bowl

The chant “D-Fence” might be ringing around Qualcomm Park for this addition of the 2009 Holiday Bowl. If this is low-scoring defense struggle, don’t be surprised, since Nebraska ranks ninth in total defense and Arizona comes in 20th among FBS schools. Those who watched the Big 12 championship game, viewed just how good defensive tackle Nudamukong Suh and the rest of the Nebraska defense is in almost taking down Texas.

Nebraska (9-4, 8-4 ATS) was a foot away from an upset of the Longhorns and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must regroup and prepare for Arizona who can also play a little D. The children of the corn are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Wildcats finished 11th in the country against the run and they will look to corral Roy Helu, one of the more underrated backs in the country. Quarterback Zac Lee does not appear to pose a threat, since he has neither the arm, accuracy nor poise under pressure to run long drives against a defense like Arizona. The Cats are 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference clashes and can turn some heads with a win in San Diego.

For long time Holiday Bowl aficionados, this is the second ever rematch, with these teams having competed in 1998. The Wildcats (8-4, 6-6 ATS) won 23-20 on that day and they will be after a second trophy.

Arizona’s season took off when Nick Foles took over as quarterback, giving them diversity on offense. The Wildcats will face a very good Nebraska pass defense and he will have to make quick reads and release the ball for a team that is 9-3 ATS as underdogs.

For all of Nebraska’s previous excellence, they are pedestrian 23-22 and 16-15 ATS after the regular season. The line movement has been wild on this matchup. The Cornhuskers started as favorites, were sent to underdogs by early bettors, with the late money reestablishing them as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com. No matter who is the favorite, it’s been a good thing in this spot with 10-3 SU and ATS in this encounter since 1996.

Arizona has a three bowl winning streak, however it dates back to 1997 and they are 6-7-1 and 6-4-1 ATS all-time. Since 1998, this has been a Big 12-Pac 10 tilt, with the teams from out west 8-3 ATS. In the last dozen years, the Big 12 is 3-9 ATS.

Both defenses would seem to have decided edges over respective offenses, but both could force turnovers or create field position advantages that could lead to points, thus the Under isn’t a guarantee.

ESPN has this surely physical battle at 8:00 Eastern and Nebraska’s outstanding kicker Alex Henery could be the difference in a tight tilt.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 4

A Battle in Boise

The opening bowl game on the Wednesday lineup has two teams in sharp contrast to what is expected later the same evening in a different bowl matchup. Why on earth would any sane person desire to watch Idaho and Bowling Green play football? Well, if you made the time for Temple and UCLA, this has a much larger potential for entertainment value with total listed at 68 points and besides, who doesn’t like a to watch a game on the Smurf Turf?

Idaho’s first winning season since 1999 was a tail of two separate campaigns. The first part of the season has the folks from Moscow going nuts as the Vandals were 6-1 and 7-0 ATS, making bettors unbelievably pleased. When the schedule picked, the defense wore down and Idaho allowed 50 points per game in finishing 1-4 and 0-5 ATS. The passing game was special all season in finishing 12th nationally.

Bowling Green also finished 7-5 SU and ATS during the regular season, having the almost complete opposite year. The Falcons began 1-4 (2-3 ATS) and had a soaring finish with 6-1 and 5-2 ATS close. The Bowling Green pass offense was even better in ranking 8th overall and the defense forced 11 turnovers is 4-0 SU and ATS close of regular season.

Other reasons to watch are some of the players involved. Bowling Green has receiver Freddy Barnes, who is five catches away from setting the NCAA record with 143 receptions in the season. Barring injury, this is the closest thing to a lock in this contest, since Barnes averages over 10 catches a game for a team that is 8-1 ATS away from home after the first month of the season over the last two years.

Idaho doesn’t have a star exactly, just a number of player to keep an eye. Junior quarterback Nathan Enderle has a strong arm and leads a down the field passing game that averaged 9.5 yards per attempt, better than two yards more than what opponents allowed. The Vandals have a trio of running backs and they will be important if Idaho is to win, since the defense can’t stay on the field for long (allow 35.5 PPG) and coach Robb Akey doesn’t want one-dimensional attack. Though Idaho can be expected to be pumped up for rare bowl appearance, they’ve shown an inclination of having a tough time turning negatives around with 3-12 ATS record after two or more consecutive straight up losses the last few years.

Bowling Green has been a streaky bowl team at 4-4, losing first three, winning next four, before being dismantled by Tulsa 63-7 in GMAC Bowl in 2008. The Falcons are 1-5 and 2-4 ATS vs. other postseason participants.

This is Idaho’s second-ever bowl experience as part of the FBS universities. They played in this very game 11 years ago and pulled one the bigger outright upsets in downing Southern Miss 42-35 as 17.5-point dogs. This is first time a MAC squad has played in this bowl and the underdog has covered four of last five.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Bowling Green as a one-point underdog, which is where they started after being a favorite for about two weeks. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS on the road vs. poor passing defenses allowing completion percentage of 58 percent or worse. Presuming the line holds, Idaho is 9-4 ATS as an underdog and 9-2 ATS after surrendering 450 or more yards in next game, though unfamiliar territory with this much time off for a bowl experience.

ESPN will have it live in Boise at 4:30 Eastern and watch guard Idaho guard Mike Iupati, looks like sure-fire NFL player.

3DW Line – Bowling Green by 7

Lining up two more Bowlers

One of the great aspects of this week leading up to being bombarded by bowl battles, for the next couple of days; you can take them one at a time before the onslaught arrives. This way the sports bettor can sit back and enjoy the games and not have to be consumed with flipping channels, which will come soon enough. Make the time to enjoy the relative serenity of one game at a time, with a pair of contests that offer notable contrasts.

EagleBank Bowl
UCLA vs. Temple
RFK Stadium – Washington, DC
4:30E ESPN

UCLA (6-6, SU & ATS) found out the true meaning of bowl eligible, having to wait two weeks to find out if they had another game or not. When Army lost to Navy, that set into motion the Bruins plans and they head this far East for the first time since 1998, when they traveled to Miami-Fl, however the nation’s capital in late December isn’t exactly South or Santa Monica Beach. Temple (9-3, 8-3 ATS) also had to wait just over a week to find out whom they would play, but they didn’t mind a bit, since the Owls are going bowling for the first time in 31 years. If any team should be jacked, it should be Temple and having a BCS team as opponent just adds to excitement.

Coach Al Golden has turned in one of the better coaching jobs this season, taking a team with definite limitations and almost making to the MAC title game. True freshman Bernard Pierce was sensational, running for 1,308 yards and 15 TDs, essentially in just eight games. Temple averaged 192 yards per game against teams that allowed 157 YPG and the Owls are 23-11 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. The one dimension missing is a passing game, having not thrown for more than 150 yards since Oct.10. With this time off, coach Golden hopes a semblance of passing the pigskin is possible with Temple 8-21 ATS away from home when they gain 100 to 150 net passing yards.

At least the Owls have something to hoot about offensively, that’s more than UCLA can say. The Bruins managed just one more yard of total offense than Temple at 339 yards (albeit vs much tougher competition) and did not run or throw with aplomb. Kevin Prince is presumed to be UCLA’s starting signal caller and could use the help of offensive linemen to block somebody. The Bruins are 4-20 ATS when they run for 100 to 150 yards and Temple surrendered just 109 per game this season.

The UCLA run defense had was run over by teams with a solid run game, however with Owls not being able to fly via the air, the Bruins can pack the box and dare Temple to beat them throwing the ball. UCLA is 17-8 ATS after a spread loss like they suffered against rival USC and Bookmaker.com has them as 4.5-point favorites with total drifting downward to 44.

As mentioned, Temple has to be super excited to play in this game, with better than three decades between bowl appearances and the Owls are 16-6 ATS as underdogs. UCLA didn’t show a substantial amount of improvement, other than becoming eligible to play in this contest and frosty environment against a team with a long losing history, doesn’t figure to make the Bruins charged-up. Their 28-7 loss to the Trojans has UCLA 2-6 ATS off a loss by 20 or more.

Temple has almost no postseason history, having played in bowls in 1978 and 1934. The Owls only took on three teams playing in bowls and was 1-2 and 2-1 ATS in 2009. The Bruins postseason history is much deeper at 13-15-1 with 11-11 ATS. UCLA has performed much better in the role as underdog compared to favorite like they are in the second EagleBank Bowl. They are 5-10 ATS as chalk, including most recent 2-7 spread mark.

3DW Line – Pick

Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami-Fl
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
8:00E ESPN

Wisconsin still has not-so-distant and not-so-pleasant memories of its last trip to the Champs Sports Bowl. That came last December when the Badgers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) were spanked 42-13 by Florida State. For 2009, Miami-Fl. is the opponent, and though head coach Bret Bielema’s team is two games better than it was a year ago, the Hurricanes (9-3, 6-6 ATS) present an imposing challenge. Miami ended up having played one of the country’s tougher schedules featuring eight bowl teams (5-3 SU & ATS). The Badgers were matched against seven postseason participants (4-3, 2-5 ATS) and failed to win or cover versus the last three.

This bowl has had more name changes than the emotions Urban Meyer has gone through in the last week (Tangerine, Blockbuster and Micron PC) and annually has been one of the least competitive bowls, as since 1993 only three games have been decided by a touchdown of less. Maybe a cheap tire company should be the sponsor in the “Blowout Bowl”.

Wisconsin has to have QB Scott Tolzien play well or the Badgers probably can’t win just running with John Clay. They need balance and throwing to talented tight ends and underrated WR Nick Toon, prevents Miami from stuffing the box. Off their demolition of Hawaii (51-10), Wisconsin is 21-6-1 ATS next after conceding 20 or fewer points.

Miami must have quarterback Jacory Harris at the top of his game. The Hurricanes undoubtedly have more offensive weapons, speed and athleticism, however if Harris is under pressure in the pocket, the offense tends not function as proficiently. It would make sense for Miami to play to strengths and come out throwing, testing the Badgers with their speed and determine how they react, which leads to running the ball with Graig Copper and their stable of backs. The Canes have covered five of last seven against teams with winning records.

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite, with total of 57 and despite most recent 7-3 ATS bowl mark, the Hurricanes are 10-24-1 ATS as favorites. The Badgers have covered the number just once in last seven encounters against squads with winning records and are 4-9 ATS as underdogs.

Wisconsin has become a bowl regular and is 9-10 with 9-8 ATS mark. This will be the Badgers sixth straight trip to the Sunshine State for bowl activity and the eighth consecutive time they will be an underdog in the postseason (3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS). Miami is 18-14 as a bowler, with above average 14-10 ATS record. The Hurricanes are 11-9 ATS as faves, but 1-3 ATS the last four times. The ACC team in the Champs Bowl has six-game winning streak with 4-2 ATS record.

3DW Line – Miami by 4

Vikings look to sink Chicago's season

Formally known as the Purple People Eaters, Minnesota captured six straight NFC Central Division titles from 1973-78, appeared in four conference championship games and three Super Bowls. Along with Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota enjoyed four consecutive double-digit win seasons—playing a 14-game schedule—starting in 1973 and was entrenched as one of the league’s elite franchises.

Three decades later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl but they took a considerable step last Sunday when Green Bay’s lost in Pittsburgh giving them back-to-back division crowns for the first time since the late ‘70s. Only two current Vikings—Brett Favre and Pat Williams—were alive when it last happened and they’ll try to secure a first-round playoff bye for the first time since 1998.

Speaking of No. 4, he once again made himself the center of attention by refusing to exit last week’s loss to Carolina. Thus heading to the Windy City, Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) has unintentionally given ESPN a number of storylines heading into its last Monday night telecast.

Though Favre and coach Brad Childress have reportedly kiss and made up, questions have to remain, especially in the Vikings locker room, where players have to wonder who is really in charge. Enough players will back Favre, while others will support the coach. No matter who backs who, Minnesota backers are impassible with their team 5-22 ATS in final road of the regular season.

Favre has been remarkable, no matter what his age, as the Vikings have a had a top 10 offense all season and are fourth in scoring at 28.3 points per game. Minnesota’s outstanding season has in part been because of how they played in division, showcasing a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS record in NFC North games.

Minnesota got a potential belated Christmas gift, with New Orleans losing a second straight home game, blowing a 17-0 lead to Tampa Bay and losing in overtime 20-17, leaving ajar the door for Minny to be the top-seed in the NFC if they win out and the Saints falter at Carolina next week.

Chicago (4-10 ATS) fans couldn’t have been happier this past off-season, they finally got their franchise quarterback, one problem; he needs to be able to throw the ball to somebody. Jay Cutler has thrown for over 3,100 yards and 19 touchdowns, but been picked off a league-high 25 times. Chicago receivers are arguably the worst in the NFL (good luck trying to find ones that are worse) and the combination of poor route-running and Cutler trying to force throws have sunk Chicago.

The Bears have fallen like the winter temperatures to 5-9 by losing six of its last seven games, including a 36-10 rout at the hands of the Vikings in November. Chicago has become THE play against team having dropped seven in a row against the spread. The Bears are 2-16 ATS this month as underdog versus team that is off SU and ATS loss.

In the previous matchup, Chicago had no answers for Favre, who completed 32 of 48 for 392 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his scoring tosses—one each to rookie Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor and Visanthe Shiancoe—came in the second quarter as the hosts built a 24-7 halftime lead. Cutler threw for 147 yards and a touchdown and was picked off twice and sacked four times.

The Bears have fared well at home in this head-to-head series however, going 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS dating back to 1998. They are also on a nice 12-3 ATS run when revenging a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. However, coach on the hot seat Lovie Smith has seen his team at its worst against good teams, 0-7 ATS vs. clubs with a winning record in this campaign.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Minnesota as eight-point road division favorite, with total of 41.5. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS as North Division visiting favorites and is a torpid 2-13 ATS in December as road chalk. The Vikes are 7-0 UNDER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. If Chicago has an ounce of pride, they should play well after another dismal effort, on home turf against rival with playoffs ahead of them. The Bears are 14-6 ATS at Soldier Field after posting 10 or fewer points and are 8-0 UNDER as an underdog this season.

Minnesota covers if they have the kind of game plan that has them jumping all over the Bears early. Get Adrian Peterson wide, play action pass deep and use Shiancoe over the middle. The Vikings running game has produced 62 or fewer yards in two of the last three weeks, this is opportunity to fix things against 25th rated run defense. The defensive front four can dominate the Chicago offensive and keep Cutler’s miscues coming. Above all, Childress has to convince his team to play 60 minutes and finish their work, otherwise they could fall victim like the Saints or almost what happened to Philadelphia on Sunday.

Chicago covers if they can make Favre uncomfortable in the pocket. Over the last few seasons, the former Southern Miss product has not played well outdoors in the cold. After 12 touchdowns and no interceptions in November, Favre has just three TD’s and four picks in the final month of 2009. It’s going to be up to the defense to raise their level of play and force Vikings into mistakes. Chicago talk radio has brought up OC Ron Turner as a big part of offensive issues and Da Bears can’t be too quick to abandon the run, as long as they are within two touchdowns. Cutler is a good play-action passer, don’t leave him without options. Chicago must dominate the special teams to control field position.

Monday Night System – Play On a division team that outgained its opponent in earlier game by more than a 100 total yards. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Independence Bowl Preview

Expect a shootout in Shreveport, when QB Jerrod Johnson and Texas A&M (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) hook up with his counterpart Joe Cox of Georgia (7-5, 4-7 ATS). The Aggies ranked in the Top 25 nationally in scoring and most phases of offense, while the Bulldogs surrendered 26.4 points per game, the most since 1990. This lead to DC Willie Martinez and two other assistants to be released, which means coach Mark Richt will be more involved with that side of the ball. The Aggies defense conceded 32.7 points per game, including 47 or more four different times. This is Georgia’s lowest-tiered bowl in eight years.

Georgia is another squad with Play On tendencies sporting 25-16-1 bowl record; with 16-11 ATS mark. The Bulldogs are a ferocious 10-2 and 9-3 ATS in last dozen bowl pairings. Georgia only played three teams that didn’t go bowling and finished 4-5 and 3-6 ATS against them. Texas A&M is back in the bowl scene after a year away and seeks to improve recent 1-7 and 1-6 spread record as bowler. The Aggies were 2-4 and 3-3 ATS when matched versus other bowl clubs. The underdog is 7-4 ATS in last 11 Independence clashes, with the SEC 8-2 and 7-3 ATS.

Coach Richt isn’t trying to redo the Georgia defense, just find a way to make it survive a single bowl game. "I'm not trying to reinvent anything," he told reporters last week, "My role is to set the parameters and make sure everything is being covered and to make sure we have a plan schematically and a plan to implement that strategy.

Richt hopes his stop troops can have an impact, since they are 13-39 ATS when they allow 28 or more points. Beyond linebacker Rennie Curran, Georgia is only average on the defensive side of the ball.

The Texas A&M defense is abysmal, which suggests the only way to win is scoring, with Johnson having a big ball game. Depending on how a person wants to view the Aggies, they are 13-3 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards like they did against Texas or 5-15 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards as they did against the Longhorns.

No matter how you look at it, points shouldn’t be an issue, with the total up 66.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com, with Georgia favored by 6.5-points. Texas A&M is 11-2 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons, while the Bulldogs are 20-7 UNDER after covering the spread in two out of their last three games.

The Independence Bowl starts at 5:00 Eastern on ESPN2 in what should be an entertaining high scoring affair.

3DW Line – Georgia by 4

The Sunday Setup

Closed with a 2-1-1 day and have a system on a sorry NFL underdog that is 28-6 ATS. Speaking of pooches, have a great angles on another dog at 84.6 percent. The Free Play is an AFC divisional matchup. Good Luck

What I know today – Being a sports bettor is much easier than betting horses. (Lots of longshots at Turf Paradise yesterday and the #5 cashed the first eight races)

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System -1) Play On teams like Washington after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous contest, in conference games. Since 2004, this system is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The Houston Texans are 11-2 ATS in the second of back to back road games.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal has hit seven of last nine plays in the NFL and has Pittsburgh as his play.

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Music City Bowl Preview

Both Kentucky and Clemson had higher aspirations of playing in a bigger bowl, however previous game losses have them matched up for second time in four years. The 2009 version of Clemson (8-5, 7-5 ATS) lost in the ACC title game and carries the disappointment of yet another season without a BCS bowl berth.

Tigers’ fans have voiced their thoughts on another trip to Nashville, selling just 4,000 tickets, after being 90 seconds away from traveling to Orange Bowl. Coach Dabo Swinney’s infectious enthusiasm will be put to the test and will call on senior leaders like C.J. Spiller to leave the Clemson campus as winners. Clemson is 3-11 ATS off a spread loss like they suffered vs. Georgia Tech.

Kentucky is 7-5 (6-5 ATS) with two sizeable long time in coming wins to its credit, against Auburn (1961) and Georgia (1977). Nonetheless, a season ending loss to Tennessee has the Wildcats in this game for the third time in last four years, missing out on chance to likely playing on New Year’s Day in the more prestigious Outback Bowl. The Wildcats are 18-33 ATS off a home loss.

Clemson has the special talents of Spiller and Kentucky has their Mr. Versatility in Randall Cobb. The sophomore runs out of the “WildCobb”, has caught 37 passes, returned a punt for six, all part of his 15 scores. A midseason injury to quarterback Mike Hartline was thought to have derailed the Wildcats bowl chances, however he’s listed as probable for Sunday night and Kentucky is 9-3 ATS in last dozen non-conference clashes.

This is Kentucky’s fourth trip in five bowl appearances to Nashville and the Wildcats have won three consecutive bowls, raising record to 8-5 and 5-3-1 ATS. Kentucky is 2-4 and 3-3 ATS against other bowl teams. Clemson is just the opposite of their opponent, with three straight bowl failures, which started against this very opponent in 2006. The Tigers are 15-16 and 10-13-1 ATS playing as bowler and have lost three in a row against the number.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Tigers as 6.5-point favorites, with total of 53. Clemson is 1-6 ATS as bowl favorites of late which matches this bowl’s history, with the underdog 8-2-1 ATS. The Tigers are 5-0 UNDER in most recent bowl conflicts. The dog has covered six of last eight Kentucky postseason encounters and these ‘Cats are 16-5 OVER when facing a winning team.

3DW Line – Clemson by 6

Week 16 NFL Previews

On the next to last weekend of the NFL regular season, several teams are looking to wrap-up division titles; enhance postseason positions or inch closer to making the playoffs. The Cincinnati Bengals can win first AFC Central crown in three years with triumph over collapsing Kansas City. New England returns to the top of the AFC East with a win, but against a much tougher opponent in Jacksonville, who has faint playoff hopes. Baltimore sends Pittsburgh packing with a win and enhances wild card possibilities. Philadelphia still could leap into No. 2 seed by winning and Minnesota turmoil continuing. Denver’s in a tough spot at Philly and can’t afford to mess up with a thousand 7-7 AFC teams chasing them. The Giants have win last two games and hope division partners can dump Dallas.

Kansas City at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

For the Bengals, it’s time for closure. They played their best game since mid-October in final second’s loss to San Diego last Sunday after losing teammate Chris Henry. On Tuesday, the team attended Henry’s funeral and what is sure to be emotional scene at Paul Brown Stadium; Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS) can make it a celebration of his life by being division champions. Besides the fact that Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite, there is little to suggest that coach Marvin Lewis’ team won’t get the job done here. They own a 4-2 ATS edge vs. the Chiefs, home teams have won and covered four of the last five, and Kansas City hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road since 2006. This series also shows a significant Under trend, 5-1 in the previous six.

Keys to the Game-

Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) pulled off the rare feat of failing to win or cover three straight home games and ends the season on the road. The Chiefs best offensive weapon is Jamal Charles, don’t give up on him because of his big play capabilities. Quarterback Matt Cassel’s completion percentage (54.6) would be three to four percent higher if his receivers didn’t lead the NFL in drops. Tapes show 75-80 percent of drops have been on receivers on throws touched and not turned into completions. Catch the ball! In Cincinnati games this season, the underdog is 13-1 ATS and the defensive front seven better do a better job than the 286 yards they allowed to Jerome Harrison or this gets ugly.

With the Bengals wanting to run the ball, the Chiefs 31st ranked run defense is the perfect compliment to Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson toting the pigskin. Do you think coach Lewis will want to give the fired up Johnson a few extra carries vs. his old team, me too. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season and will expect its defensive line to collapse K.C. running game and make Cassel throw before he wants against solid corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -13.5, 39.5

Carolina at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

Props to former coach and CBS commentator Bill Cowher, who correctly predicted the Giants would be sharp and ready to play at Washington, which they were in ripping the Redskins 45-12. Toss out the Turkey Day tumble in Denver and Eli Manning has led an offense that has averaged 37 points per contest in four of last five games. New York (8-6, 7-7 ATS) is 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. Carolina is just 6-8 (7-7 ATS) after winning 12 games a season ago and will likely be looking for another quarterback next season. The Panthers impressive 26-7 mauling of Minnesota has them at 40-20 ATS all-time in December. They are also 21-10 ATS as a road dog of seven points or less under coach John Fox. Favorites have won and covered four of the last five series meetings, and four of those also went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

Coach Fox’s backside is clearly on the hot seat and he will lean on familiar formula in attempt to upset New York. His two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart need to have a minimum of 30 carries, setting up QB Matt Moore to take deep shots downfield to Steve Smith. Carolina has to bring a few defense wrinkles like they had for the Vikings last week and give Manning at least time for pause. The Panthers are +8 in turnover margin the last three weeks and are 7-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Keep Julius Peppers motor on high and let his single-handily disrupt Giants offense.

Though Manning has been shaper than a Ginzu knife, the Carolina secondary has been like pickpocket with eight interceptions in the last month. When Eli is feeling it, he’s fearless in trying to thread the needle; he’ll have to be slightly more cautious vs. this secondary. Coach Tom Coughlin doesn’t have to watch tape on Carolina to know their game plan; he just has to have his defense execute to thwart them. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS off a road win the last three years and have to add help if T Dave Diehl struggles with Peppers.

3DW Line – Giants by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -8, 42.5

Jacksonville at New England 1:00E CBS

New England looks to wrap up the AFC East while putting to rest any playoff hopes the Jaguars might still boast. It certainly hasn’t been the season as expected for the Patriots (6-7-1 ATS), but they are still 9-5 and figure to be a team that few will want to match up with in the playoffs. They are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, so a win and division title here would ensure a first round home playoff game. Under Bill Belichick, New England boasts a 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS record in the last two weeks of the regular season. For the 7-7 Jaguars (5-9 ATS), this is a critical contest in which they are trying to improve on a 1-5 ATS skid in December/January road games. Jacksonville has never won in New England, going 0-5 and 2-3 ATS while being outscored by a 27-13 margin.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville has lost consecutive home games, to lose control of postseason destiny. Though the playoff picture is far from rosy, a win and Denver and Baltimore losses (certainly a possibility) brings them right smack in the middle of the AFC picture with winnable game at Cleveland to follow. The Jaguars don’t have any burners to test beatable Patriots secondary, that means get the ball in the hands of Maurice-Jones Drew every way imaginable. That forces New England to be preoccupied with stopping him and opens the field for others. Everyone knows Tom Brady will pass, however the Pats have made attempt to be much more balanced running the ball. Since surrendering 305 yards on the ground to Tennessee, the Jags have conceded 78.5 YPG via the run. It is imperative Jacksonville defenders tackle well or they will be hurt by Patriots receivers after the catch and fall to 1-11 ATS off a division battle.

Defenses have taken to bracketing Wes Welker and Randy Moss and forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere to throw the ball. He’s been somewhat reluctant to do so and thrown un-Brady like passes for interceptions the last month, especially in the red zone. On the presumption the other pass receivers can get open, a half dozen early completions forces defenses to adjust and makes New England more explosive. The Pats found a pass rush last week with six sacks and Jacksonville is 5-16 SU when David Garrard is taken down three or more times the last three seasons. With the Pats 34-16 ATS as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite, all eyes of MJD and make Garrard a pocket passer.

3DW Line – New England by 12.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -10, 44

Baltimore at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

After meeting in the AFC title game a year ago at Heinz Field, the most the Ravens and Steelers are hoping for now is a chance at the wildcard spot. A loss would be catastrophic to both. Pittsburgh (4-10 ATS) is 7-7 after ending its five-game losing skid by beating Green Bay on the game’s final play, but finishes its schedule vs. two playoff hopefuls. Baltimore is 8-6 SU and ATS, but plays its last two games on the road, where it is just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in ’09. This will be the second meeting of the season between these AFC North foes, with the Ravens having won the first, 20-17 in overtime, in a game where the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 SU & ATS in division games this year. Eight of the last nine physical battles these teams have played in Pittsburgh surprisingly went OVER the total. The visiting team is 15-5-1 ATS in this series.

Keys to the Game –

Second year starter Joe Flacco has rebounded from mid-season slump and has been far more accurate the last five weeks, except for Monday night date in Wisconsin. With Steelers secondary cheapjack, Flacco will have chances to light up Pittsburgh down the field like many have with no Troy Polamalu. Offensive tackles Jared Gaither and Michael Oher have to play great and control free-lancing linebackers from limiting Flacco’s time in the pocket. Baltimore is not as prolific defensively as in the past, but they still can play very well within the parameters of certain scores as 15-4 ATS record proves when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.

The importance of Polamalu is shown in deep balls. During Super Bowl season, only two passes were completed for 40 or more yards, in 2009, nine such plays have been made. The safeties have to be in better position as the ball heads towards receiver’s hands. How about the offensive line lending a hand and giving Robert Mendenhall someplace to run and not have Big Ben have to throw so many times and take all those hits. The Steelers are 12-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game, but just 3-10 ATS as favorites.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -3, 43

Denver at Philadelphia 4:15E CBS

After taking care of San Francisco, the Eagles (9-5 ATS) continue to roll and hope to wrap the NFC East title with a win here vs. Denver. Anything but however, could set up a winner take all matchup with the Cowboys next week in Arlington. Philly has won five straight games to move to 10-4 on the season, producing 32.5 points per game during that stretch. The Eagles’ Week 17 win over the Cowboys snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in home finales. After the shocking loss to Oakland, this game is even more important to Denver (8-6 SU & ATS), who can keep control of its wildcard destiny with a win. The Broncos are on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid when visiting NFC foes, including a 23-17 loss in Washington in Week 10. The home team is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak in this AFC/NFC series.

Keys to the Game-

Denver is 22nd against the run and has become increasingly susceptible to cut-back runs. With Brian Westbrook reportedly ready to return, the Broncos have to protect the backside more diligently. The Denver defense coaches have to create schemes to free up Elvis Dumervil to chase Donovan McNabb. In the Broncos eight wins, Dumervil had 13 sacks, in the five losses, just two. Without disruption, Denver falls to 2-11 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better. To upset the Eagles, the Denver offense has to do better than 35.7 percent on third down (23rd) and not settling for field goal attempts.

The Eagles commitment to the run has lead to five-game win streak. They have average 115.2 yards a contest on over 28 carries. Prior to OC Marty Mornhinweg change in philosophy, Philadelphia had six less carries a game. This has opened the field even further for big play specialists like DeSean Jackson. Though Denver is second against the pass and has Champ Bailey, watch for Philly to have Jackson line-up in the slot several times and put him in motion to keep Bailey and Denver secondary off guard. McNabb scorched the 49ers last week for 306 yards passing and the Eagles are a high-flying 13-3 ATS after accumulating 250 yards thru the air. Like most quarterbacks, Kyle Orton doesn’t like defenders in his face when throwing, expect Philadelphia to work the A-gaps hard with line stunts and blitzes.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 15
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7, 41.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

No Christmas returns here

When I was last able to do this, knocked down a 2-1 record. We’ll start with a perfect reverse trend in the NBA chasing the worst team in the league. Found a non-qualifying system that just misses at 79.5 percent, but with a couple of NBA plays might be joining our long list and is already 3-0 this season. Free Plays now available. Good Luck

What I know today – It was another successful Christmas and it wonderful to be with my family.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) PLAY ON road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points outscoring their opponents by three or more points a game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This NBA system actually yields two plays (Lakers and Hawks) and is 31-8 ATS the L5Y, including 3-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The New Jersey Knuckleheads are 0-10 ATS versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this season.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall is 5-1 in the bowls on sides and totals ans has North Carolina as his top play. The LCC is 4-2 on sides thus far and and has Boston, College, UNC and Ohio U as majority plays.

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Bowl season ready to roll

All the gifts have been opened and glad tidings shared. The gift cards (the new fruit cake) are stacked to never fit in the wallet and the return receipts are in a nice tidy bundle. For the sports bettor the first six bowl games were like the appetizer trey passed around the last 36 hours, good choices, but it is time to eat. Starting Saturday and for the next eight days, 24 bowl games will be televised to whet the insatiable appetite of even the most piggish of wagering junkie. Without further ado, let get this party started.

Little Caesars Bowl
Marshall vs. Ohio U
Ford Field – Detroit
1:00E ESPN

Little Caesar’s Pizza takes over sponsorship of the game more commonly known as the Motor City Bowl. Former conference rivals will square off in the 2009 rendition, as Ohio U. and Marshall meet. The Bobcats (9-4 SU & ATS) are seeking their first 10-win season in 31 years and return to scene where they lost MAC championship to Central Michigan. Marshall (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) is in first bowl since 2004, which wasn’t enough to prevent from coach Mark Snyder being forced to resign. Interim coach Rick Minter takes over as the Thundering Herd look to have first winning campaign in six years.

Marshall was a regular participant in this bowl at the turn of the century making four straight trips. The Thundering Herd is 5-2 SU and ATS as a bowler, however just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS vs. those also playing in bowls. Ohio U. has never won a bowl in three previous tries, falling in the GMAC Bowl in 2007 and losing twice in the 1960’s. The Bobcats split games vs. other bowl teams, with sharp 5-1 ATS mark. The MAC is 2-5 SU and ATS in last seven contests.

Why watch and wager –Ohio is favored by three-points at Bookmaker.com, won three of last four, covered each time and will have regular coach Frank Solich as their leader. Marshall finished 1-3 SU and ATS and will have coach looking for another job at the completion of this bowl game. If Bobcats quarterback Theo Scott has more touchdowns than picks, Ohio is 6-0 SU. The players from Athens are 7-1 ATS after one or more consecutive covers this season. Marshall has offensive limitations and feeds running back Darius Marshall (ironic) a load of times, hoping he gets hot vs. ordinary Ohio run D. The Thundering Herd is anything but with 8-22 ATS record having lost two out of last three contests. Motivation is on the side of Ohio, seeking first-ever bowl victory and the most coveted trophy in college football, The Deep Dish Large Pizza (crazy bread included). For geography buffs, these schools are a mere 90 miles apart.

3DW Line – Pick

Meineke Car Care Bowl
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Bank of American Stadium – Charlotte
4:30E ESPN

Charlotte hosts its eighth annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) plays in its home state, taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in this bowl and they come in 4-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-4-1 ATS) looks to pick up the pieces of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from ending Cincinnati’s Cinderella season and making a trip to the Sugar Bowl. Coach Dave Wannstedt still has something to sell his team as they could be the first 10-win Pittsburgh squad since Dan Marino wore the blue and gold 28 years ago.

Both teams suffered disappointing season ending losses and North Carolina is 12-14 all-time in bowl matchups, with winning spread record of 10-6-2 ATS. The Tar Heels are 5-3-1 ATS as bowl underdogs and were 5-3 and .500 ATS against other bowl squads. Pittsburgh has failed to win or cover last three bowl assignments and is 10-15 and 7-10 ATS in their history. The Panthers are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS vs. those also playing after the regular season. The Big East is 2-4 ATS in this contest.

Why watch and wager – Difficult bowl game to gauge range of emotions. Pittsburgh could be more chagrined than a Republican about the health care bill and fail to take winnable contest at home against Bearcats. North Carolina has shown more range of emotions than Robert Downey Jr. in Sherlock Holmes. The Tar Heels started 3-0, lost three of four, won and covered four in a row and filled a diaper at N.C. State. If emotions plays no part, than turnovers have to for North Carolina to win, since their offense isn’t good enough to emerge victorious on its own. The Heels are 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. For Pittsburgh, they traded Bourbon Street beads for car parts. The Panthers have to attack with explosive pass catches TE Dorin Dickerson and Jonathan Baldwin early, which loosens up above average UNC defensive line for diminutive Dion Lewis to scoot thru. Pitt is three-point favorite with total of 44.5, yet is 3-7 ATS when picked by three or fewer points.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 3

Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs. USC
AT&T Park – San Francisco
8:00E ESPN

The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC (8-4, 3-9 ATS), as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since ‘01. Playing in this level of bowl game is unfamiliar territory for USC, but Trojans defense allowed more than 35 points three times after having done so twice prior to this season since Pete Carroll was coach. Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) was inconsistent in their first season under coach Frank Spaziani, but reached a bowl for the 11th straight year despite being picked to finish last in the ACC's Atlantic Division in the league's preseason poll.

This is USC’s first non-BCS bowl game since 2001 and they have spectacular 31-16 all-time bowl mark with 13-12 ATS record. Under coach Carroll, they are 6-2 SU and ATS. One of the few schools that could match the Trojans postseason prowess is Boston College, who saw their eight-game bowl streak snapped last year in the Music City matchup. The Eagles are 13-7 and 10-7 ATS, with 5-3 ATS mark as underdogs. Underdogs are rock solid 5-1 ATS in San Fran and with the total at 44, all three tilts that had totals of 46 or less show underdogs 3-0 SU & ATS.

Why watch and wager – People can’t turn away from car wrecks and mishaps and USC qualifies as both. After seven straight Pac-10 titles and matching number of BCS bids, coach Carroll’s fun-loving crew plays in a converted baseball stadium. No, the Trojans aren’t using Joe McKnight’s Range Rover connection to arrive at AT&T Park and freshman Matt Barkley won’t have important offensive weapons to use once again. USC is 19-6 ATS with two weeks or more to prepare. Boston College also starts a freshman signal caller, he just happens to be 25-year old Dave Shinskie. The Eagles offensive line has to open holes for RB Montel Harris, which sets up WR Rich Gunnell for play-action passes. B.C.’s goal is slow the game down and remind older USC players that this is the Emerald Bowl, not a more prestigious contest. The Eagles are catching seven-points with total at 45 and they are 13-3 as 3.5 to 10-point underdogs.

3DW Line – USC by 5

Hawaii Bowl brings SMU full circle

Southern Methodist last played in a bowl game in 1984, and three years later was sanctioned with the “Death Penalty”. The Mustangs return to the same venue in Hawaii 25 years later, with much of the credit going to former Hawaii coach June Jones. While some of those on islands despise Jones for taking the money and leaving Hawaii, the facts were he did everything he could to stay and just wanted to be adequately compensated, since the U of H and BCS go together like Hawaiian weather and snow.

SMU (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) has seen Jones turn around a dormant program in just two years after having produced one winning season (1997) since feeling the wrath of the NCAA. Jones has manufactured his run-and-shoot offense in Dallas, that ranks 28th in passing nationally and has to be tugging on his lei thinking about 118th ranked Nevada pass defense to throw against. The Ponies are 5-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

SMU will face a Nevada (8-4, 7-5 ATS) team that was 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS down the stretch, scoring 49.6 points per game after starting 0-3. The Wolf Pack are in a bowl game for a fifth straight year and are the first NCAA team to have three 1,000 rushers.

In retrospect, it’s unfathomable to consider Nevada was actually shutout by Notre Dame 35-0 in both teams season opener. How could a team with that much firepower on offense only gain 307 yards against what turned out to be porous Irish defense? It just proves things are not always as they first appear.

Nevertheless, two-thirds of the 1,000 yard club won’t be available, with Luke Lippincott out with injury and Vai Tuau an academic casualty. That leaves quarterback Colin Kaepernick to be the main focus of attention for SMU and he has delivered. The Wolf Pack is 11-3 ATS when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Nevada as 12.5-point favorite with total of 72.5. The Wolf Pack is 3-6 all-time in bowl games, covering the spread just once in six lined appearances. They were .500 against others playing in the postseason with 3-1 ATS mark. Nevada hasn’t won a bowl since outlasting Central Florida 49-48 in Hawaii in 2005.

With the ghosts of Eric Dickerson and Craig James lurking in the background (the old “Pony Express”), SMU earns first bowl bid in a quarter century, which ironically is the same bowl. The Mustangs are 4-6-1 and 2-2 ATS all-time. SMU is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 non-conference clashes, but is 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

The total has intriguing dichotomy, with Nevada 10-2 OVER having won two out of their last three games and SMU 16-5 UNDER as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Before making a decision either way, consider this Foxsheets system- Play UNDER in a bowl game if the non-conference participants are from second tier division 1-A conferences. (34-10 L10Y)

It’s never made much sense why the Hawaii Bowl starts at 8:00 Eastern on Christmas Eve, since the games are typically four hour scoring marathons. Favorites and underdogs have alternated spread victories for the last five years, and based on that pattern, it would be the underdog’s turn to cover in 2009. This has been a very high scoring bowl series, with the winning team having surpassed the 35-point mark all but once since ’95 while averaging 44.9 point per game.

3DW Line – Nevada by 15

Another Pac-10 team to fall?

Good luck in trying to figure out the California Bears this season. Preseason publications were correct is saying USC was vulnerable and Cal and Oregon were the two teams thought to be most capable of being Pac-10 champions. After a 3-0 start, the Bears were declawed by Oregon and USC by combined scores of 72-6 and were shown to be overrated. California (8-4, 6-6 ATS) regrouped and won five of next six, including an incredibly impressive 34-28 victory over rival Stanford at their place. With a chance to finish the season at least feeling good about themselves and earn Sun Bowl bid, what does Cal do, get whacked by Washington 42-10, dropping them to this pre-Christmas bowl in San Diego. California is 3-13 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers.

Everyone following the Utah football program agrees this year’s 9-3 record is a long way away from last season’s 13-0 and final No.2 ranking. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a successful campaign in Salt Lake City, since it was only Utah’s eighth nine-win season all-time. This has become a very stable football program under coach Kyle Whittingham, being able to possibly win 10 games after undefeated year, despite only four retuning offensive starters. Word out of Utah campus is the Utes (5-7 ATS) have quickly moved beyond overtime loss to astringent rival BYU and looks forward to the challenge of taking on a Pac-10 club, always a point of emphasis for Mountain West schools. Give Utah time to prepare and they are rugged opponent, with 24-10 ATS record when playing with two weeks or more of rest over the last 17 years.

Because of the matchup, this bowl shows up as a respectable 14th in our rankings. California was 3-3 SU and ATS against teams participating in bowls. Utah is 2-3 with only one cover vs. competition also playing in the postseason. The Bears are 10-8-1 as bowlers with 5-6 ATS record and this marks the sixth straight time they are favorites (2-3 ATS). The Utes are uber-bowlers with 11-3 record (9-3 ATS), which includes eight straight triumphs (6-2 ATS). They are sparkling 6-1 ATS as underdogs. The favorite has won all four Poinsettia Bowls, with a .500 spread record.

Both teams will be intent on stopping the other team’s running game, led by backup pigskin-totters. Cal has Shane Vareen in for Jahvid Best, who’s been unable to overcome concussion issues. Utah wants to force QB Kevin Riley to beat them and their defense is capable, since they are 11-2 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in consecutive games.

The Utes lost stud ball-carrier in Matt Aiata, however his replacement Eddie Wide ran for over 1,000 yards and scored 12 touchdowns, starting the last seven games of the season. California wants to see if true freshman quarterback Jordan Wynn handles a little Pac-10 pressure. Utah coaches might go max protection in obvious passing situations since the Bears were 108th in the nation in pass defense, allowing 260.9 yards per game, with 17 TD passes.

DiamondSportsbook.com has California as three-point favorites, with total of 51.5. The Bears have shown their trustworthiness in this exact situation under coach Jeff Tedford with 4-13 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3, losing by 4.1 points a game. Cal is 10-2 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Besides their dumbfounding bowl streak, Utah is 15-2 UNDER away from home after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, winning by six points per game.

ESPN will televise this confrontation from San Diego starting at 8 Eastern.


3DW Line – Cal by 2

Las Vegas Bowl Preview

This is easily the best of the early bowl conflicts, ranking 8th on our radar, with two Top 25 teams. This is BYU’s fifth straight Las Vegas Bowl, which seemingly isn’t that big a problem, since the Mormons have a large population in the southern part of Nevada. Maybe in a different economy, the Cougars (10-2, 5-7 ATS) might be inclined to look at another site, but given the choice, Vegas made the most sense.

BYU’s senior class has won 10 or more games for the fourth year in a row. Quarterback Max Hall directs the 13th best pass attack in the land at 299.6 yards per game. Coach Bronco Mendenhall is an Oregon State alumnus and former defensive coordinator with the Beavers and hopes for running back Harvey Unga continued health. Slowed with severely injured hamstring in fall camp, only recently has Unga gone full tilt like he did against Utah in gaining 116 yards. Opposing coaches agree, the Cougars are much harder to prepare for with a healthy Unga. BYU is 4-13 ATS after the first month of the season the last two years.

Oregon State (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) was oh so close to making first Rose Bowl appearance in 46 years, but came up short to rival Oregon in pivotal contest. A justifiable question is the Beavers mental state after falling to the Ducks. In a similar scenario a year ago, Oregon State bounced back and won the Sun Bowl, however this year they have nine fewer days to prepare, making it harder to gauge response time.

Sean Canfield closed career with a brilliant senior campaign (16th passing offense), completing a school-record 70 percent of his passes. The Rodgers brothers, Quizz and James, will test BYU’s speed on the defensive perimeter. Oregon State is 13-4 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest under coach Mike Riley.

BYU opened as early 1.5-point favorites and were swiftly turned around to underdogs. The Cougars are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS vs other bowl teams, with Oregon State 3-4 and 4-3 ATS. The BYU bowl history is pretty pathetic at 9-17-1 SU and 9-16-1 ATS, including 6-9 ATS as underdogs. The Beavers are 8-5 SU and 5-3 ATS (5-0 and 4-1 ATS under Riley), with 5-3 spread record as favorites. Since the bowl committee established an affiliation with the Mountain West, the conference is 6-6 and 5-6-1 ATS.

Bookmaker.com has Oregon State now posted as 2.5-point favorites, with total having sunk two points to 58.5. Both teams were excellent away from home, with the eager Beavers 4-2 and 5-1 ATS and the feisty Cougars 6-0 and 4-2 ATS, winning by over 26 points a game.

Oregon State is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons and the total might be an indicator of outcome since coach Riley’s team is 7-1 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

This is 8:00 Eastern start on ESPN and the favorite in a BYU bowl game is on 7-0 and 5-2 ATS run.

3DW Line – Oregon State by 4

New York might need bailout in Washington

With their season on the line, the New York Giants came up short at home again versus Philadelphia last week, losing a high scoring affair 45-38. Although not mathematically dead in the playoff race, their hopes are on life support, with two of their final three games on the road. This perilous position means the Giants have to sweep Washington for the third time in the last four years to keep dreams alive of a fifth straight postseason bid.

A week after beating the Cowboys, New York (6-7 ATS) lost a fourth straight game to the Eagles at the Meadowlands and fell to third place in the division with a record of 7-6. Philadelphia sits at 10-4 and Dallas is 9-5. Washington (6-7 ATS) brings up the rear in the NFC East at 4-9 and comes into this Monday night game off a victory at Oakland. The G-Men will come to Washington 17-5 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.

Unlike recent seasons (18-6 SU & ATS the last three years as visitors including postseason), New York has floundered of late away from home, losing its last three games both SU and ATS, by at least 20 points each time. They’ll look to break that skid with a fourth straight win in Washington against a Redskins team set on spoiling any remaining hopes for its division rival. The Giants are 15-4 ATS in road games against NFC opposition.

Washington D.C. is known for stirring debates and rumors flying (among many other things) and the latest involves Mike Shanahan being the next coach of the Redskins. Present head coach Jim Zorn swallowed his pride earlier and gave up control of calling plays, yet apparently never lost his team despite all the distractions.

Washington has continued to play hard and only one of their nine losses has been by more than 10 points, proving their competitiveness. After losing three consecutive games by seven total points, they routed the Raiders 34-13 as 2.5-point road favorites and have covered the spread five straight times.

Among those that have shown improvement is quarterback Jason Campbell. The former Auburn signal caller has gone thru almost as many offensive coordinators as Tiger Woods “indiscretions”, but has been more consistent with 2,946 yards passing, 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll set career highs in all three categories, but it’s up for debate whether or not he’s still the quarterback of the future, turning 28 years old on New Year’s Eve.

Run defense was Washington’s focus during the offseason—it signed Pro Bowl tackle Albert Haynesworth to a $100 million contract—yet still allows 117.5 yards per game. That is no fault of Haynesworth, who has battled nagging injuries the last two months and he and his teammates have given up only 122 yards on the ground the last two games. That isn’t necessarily a good omen, as the Skins are 0-7 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 2007. For the Washington optimist, whose party controls the House or Senate, the Redskins are 9-1 ATS versus offensive teams like the Giants (382.4 YPG) averaging 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as three-point favorites with total of 43.5. These teams renewed their rivalry in Week 1 and the Giants held on for a 23-17 victory at home after building a 17-point lead late in the first half. Mario Manningham caught a 30-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning, Osi Umenyiora returned a Jason Campbell fumble 37 yards for a touchdown and kicker Lawrence Tynes booted three field goals to account for New York’s scoring. Manning’s squad has won and covered three in a row at FedEx Field, however is 0-5 ATS in last five favorite roles and 4-10-1 ATS on Monday’s.

Despite their spread streak, Washington is 3-9 ATS at home, nonetheless has covered last four times dressed up as hogs, whoops, underdogs. Six of the last eight games at Washington have gone OVER when these teams meet.

New York covers if the offensive line plays up to previous standards and controls the action. Like most quarterbacks, Manning is not nearly as effective when he’s getting knocked around. The front five has to give him time and the Giants offensive coaches need to be more patient in the run game. They feeling from New York observers is if the offense doesn’t pick up a couple of first downs running in a particular drive, Tom Coughlin’s staff is quick to pull the trigger and start passing almost exclusively. Given time, Manning should pick apart the Redskins middle defense since the safeties couldn’t cover the Giants’ receivers with a bolt of Christmas wrapping paper.

Washington covers if the secondary can rough up the G-Men’s youthful wide receivers. At times, alligator arms have been seen by various New York pass catchers over the middle, and Redskins’ safeties love to deliver big shots. Washington’s pass rush has hit another gear and with the Giants’ tackles faulty in pass protection and not picking up stunts properly, they could create chaos in the pocket. Tight end Fred Davis has become Campbell’s go-to-guy if Santana Moss is covered. Davis is big and can get down the field to cause Giant(s) headaches (that’s terrible) for the team in blue.

Monday Night System – Play On home team whose opponent surrendered 35 or more points in previous game. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Monday NBA Systems

Five contests on the NBA docket to start the week leading up to Christmas holiday. Utah and Orlando and Cleveland at Phoenix will generate the most buzz, with each having a twist that sets them apart. The other three conflicts all have unique systems worth considering on sides or totals.

Milwaukee at Indiana (-2, 202.5)

After a fast start (8-3) giving Bucks fans hope about the future, Milwaukee has lost 11 of 14. This sets up potential totals play, as road teams that have lost four or five of their last six contests and sporting a win percentage of 40-49 percent, look to be OVER play when the total is 200 to 209.5 and facing a team with win percentage of 25 to 40 percent. (16-3 L3Y)

Utah at Orlando (-8, 204)

The Jazz have won two of three on their five-game road trip before Christmas. Orlando rebounded, literally, from a loss to Miami and bested Portland 92-83 as nine-point favorites. In that contest the Magic cleaned up on the glass with 64-43 edge and favorites that have a +3 or better rebounding edge on the season and off a game where they out-boarded the opposition by 15 or more, are 74-36 ATS in next contest since 2007.

Sacramento at Chicago (-4, 200.5)

The Bulls have been big disappointment this season with 10-15 record and even worse against the spread at 8-15-2 ATS. Chicago has managed to cover three in a row; however their luck might run out tonight. The Bulls escaped with 101-98 overtime win against Atlanta Saturday night and home squads being outscored by six or more points a game, after a close win by three points or less, are 20-57 ATS since 1996.

L.A. Clippers at San Antonio (-8.5, 193.5)

The Clippers have shown general improvement thus far at 12-14 and are in the midst of a six-game road trip. They won their last outing in Philadelphia 112-107 in OT and face a San Antonio club that has been scoring, averaging 107.3 points per game. Tonight watch the total, since it is best to play OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, after a team like the Clippers allowed 105 points or more, against opponent after they’ve scored 100 points or more five straight games. (40-12 L13Y)

Cleveland at Phoenix (-2, 209.5)

The “Shaq-tus” makes his return to the desert, to face Phoenix who has yet to lose at home with 10-0 record (6-3-1 ATS). The Suns are off a 26-point walloping of Washington and teams that score 102 or more points a night, off a win by 15 or more, against an opponent that scores between 98-102 points per game, are 30-7 ATS if the line is +3 to -3.

College basketball doubleheader on the duece

The All-City Classic used to be one of premier holiday tournaments in the country, but as the college basketball landscape changed, so did this event. Now it is primarily a local draw instead of diverse field, yet quality basketball is still available in Oklahoma City. Both games can be seen on ESPN2 starting at 6:30 Eastern, with a distinct Oklahoma flair, providing a pair of wagering opportunities.

UTEP vs Oklahoma 6:30E ESPN2

Texas El-Paso (6-2, 2-2 ATS) is one of the out-of-state participants for this event and is off to their finest start in nine seasons. With Memphis no longer a shoo-in to win Conference USA, the Miners are among four teams that could mine a league crown. UTEP’s leading scorer is Randy Culpepper, who is a proven point producer and is complimented by forward Arnett Moultrie and guard Julyan Stone. The roster is further enhanced by D-1 transfers Christian Polk and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter. The Miners are 17-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

The post-Blake Griffin era got off a taxing start with three straight late November losses, however since that time, Oklahoma has gotten both feet leveled. The Sooners (8-3, 4-5 ATS) lack dominant defensive player in the lane and were taken apart for over 89 points a game in those defeats. Since then, the players have rededicated themselves to shuffling the feet and keeping opponent in front of them and they have surrendered 73 or fewer points in all but one game in amassing six straight wins. The Sooners last two contests have gone over the total and they are 12-26 ATS when that occurs the last dozen years.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Oklahoma as a three-point pick with total of 147.5.

LaSalle vs Oklahoma State 8:45E ESPN2

LaSalle has 7-3 record and has played to about everyone’s expectations, which is part of their problem in the bigger picture. Losses to South Carolina, Villanova and Kansas were expected, however aspirations of getting into the field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament means you have to pull a few surprises. The Explorers (2-4 ATS) failed to come closer than 10 points in any of those defeats and did not cover the spread in any of those contests. This would be the perfect opportunity to step up and upset a known Cowboys club before a national cable audience. Led by NBA prospect Rodney Green and freshman big man Aarric Murray, La Salle is inauspicious 0-6 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or points a game over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma State (9-1, 3-1-1 ATS) won a clutch game at Stanford 71-70 as two-point road underdogs last Wednesday and they will look to build on that momentum. Senior guard Obi Muonelo snapped out of an ugly funk, scoring 18 of his 20 points in the second half and the Cowboys needed every one of them after building a 15-point lead against the Cardinal. Oklahoma State is undersized and needs have James Anderson deliver each time out and freshman point guard Ray Penn is gaining notoriety. The Cowboys are nine-point favorite and are 13-3 ATS in that role over the last two seasons.

Unreal NFL Sunday Info

Overall a respectable 3-2 day with our system plays a perfect 2-0. Today we have one of the very best systems we have had all year in the NFL at 25-2 ATS. The Top Trend is 100 percent over an extended period of time and Paul Buck looks to continue his latest hot streak. Good Luck
What I know today – Teams that have negative turnover margin of -3 or worse are 13-2-1 ATS in next game the last eight weeks in the NFL. This week that would be Miami, St. Louis, New England, Arizona and the Giants tomorrow night.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System -1) Play On home teams like Detroit after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games with a winning percentage of 25 percent or less, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This system is Holy S _ _ _ 25-2 ATS, 92.6 percent since 1999.

Free Football Trend-2) The Baltimore Ravens are 17-0 ATS at home off a non-conference contest.

Free Football Pick -3) Paul Buck is 17-4 the last five days and has Kansas City as his top play.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order StatFox Edge Bowl guide, you will thank me.

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Week 15 in the NFL

It’s the last Sunday before Christmas and NFL teams are scurrying like busy shoppers to find that one last game that could put them in the postseason. Philadelphia has climbed atop of the NFC East standings and needs to win out to earn the third seed, while San Francisco didn’t let their playoff dreams die with Monday night upset. Miami is in better position than Tennessee as they prepare to meet, will they still be at the end of the day? Baltimore is expected to put Chicago on the sale rack, yet are the Ravens fully focused with Pittsburgh on deck. Speaking of the defending Super Bowl champions, it’s Jim Mora time (Playoffs?), they just need a victory and they’ll face one of the hottest and most complete teams at the moment in Green Bay who is looking to secure top NFC wild card. What do you make of Cincinnati at San Diego, as the Bengals continue to deal with mounting injuries and yet another death within the organization. Wicked weather up and down the East Coast will also impact games, as totals have in several cases.

San Francisco at Philadelphia 4:15E FOX

In need of a key win to stay atop the NFC East, Philadelphia (9-4, 8-5 ATS) squares off against a team it has had its way with in recent years, the 49ers. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has throttled San Francisco by at least two touchdowns in each of the last three meetings and the offense has scored 40 points per game in those contests. Those routs contribute to a trend of 26-12 ATS mark vs. NFC West foes under Reid. After beating New York Sunday night, Philly has its sights set on the NFC East title, and has two home games slotted before the season finale in Dallas. San Francisco (6-7, 8-3 ATS) has won just once in six road games in ’09, but has been competitive to the tune of 3-1-2 ATS. Dating back a little further in this head-to-head series, road teams own a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS edge since 1992.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia has won four in a row, covering three times thanks in part to +5 turnover margin in those games. The offense has hardly missed a beat ranking third in points scored (28.6) despite numerous key injuries. For this matchup it’s how the defense performs. The 49ers like to play rough, which the recent shoddy tackling won’t work against Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. The Eagles can’t allow either player to be a big factor. Alex Smith reads the defense better out of the shotgun when passing, this leaves it up to the Philly defense to disguise blitz packages and force Smith to go to second and third options, definitely not his strength. Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS at after allowing 35 points or more last game.

The playoff pulse may be faint for the Niners, but at least they have one. San Francisco stymied Arizona twice this year and must utilize similar gameplan against Eagles. This includes tight bump and run coverage on the outside and pressure on off the edges forcing Donovan McNabb to throw in traffic. Patrick Willis blitzes have to get to McNabb. There will be bad plays, but rollout Smith to avoid pressure and take deep shots, as Davis and Michael Crabtree are proving they can catch the ball in traffic. Keep Gore moving with quick-hitting runs. Little known fact, Monday night winners as road underdogs in next game are 9-2-1 ATS the last four years.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7.5, 41

Miami at Tennessee 1:00E CBS

Miami and Tennessee are in a grouping of teams in the AFC still holding on to wildcard playoff hopes. Unquestionably, the loser of this week’s game is in trouble in that regard. If series history is any indication, that team would be Miami (7-6 SU & ATS), as favorites have swept the previous four contests between these teams while going 3-1 ATS. From a matchup perspective, the Dolphins are up against a treacherous spot with 4-14 ATS record versus excellent rushing teams averaging 150 or more on the ground since 1992. Nevertheless, the Fins are on impressive six-game ATS winning streak in road finales. The Titans (6-6-1 ATS) are 6-7 after beating St. Louis and have won six of their last seven. This is the middle encounter of a three-game homestand for them and they are 12-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards twice in a row.

Keys to the Game-

Miami stuffed Maurice Jones-Drew on the ground last week (59 yards) and the defense will called upon again to contain the NFL’s leading rusher Chris Johnson. It takes all 11 guys to prevent Johnson from hitting big plays. If the Dolphins want to have something to play for in final two home games, they have to clean up road miscues. Miami is fortunate to be 3-4 SU as visitors, as they own -9 turnover margin on the road. The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in road engagements against AFC opponents the last two seasons and will turn to fullback Lousaka Polite, who has made tremendous impact on third down and on short yardage plays. He’s 13 for 13 on third or fourth and one this year.

Johnson needs 160 yards a game to break Eric Dickerson all-time rushing record. He’s allowed Vince Young to grown as a quarterback, being the necessary threat to balance the offense and be game-changer and back who runs out the clock for Titans. Second year quarterback Chad Henne, like many young QB’s, is not as efficient on the road. A healthy Tennessee secondary had been picking off more passes since ending losing streak, make Henne throw into small windows. Jeff Fisher’s squad is 8-4 ATS after winning by 14 or more points and has to tackle Ricky Williams before he turns the corner or gets into the secondary.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 5
Bookmaker.com Line – Tennessee -5, 43

Chicago at Baltimore 4:15E FOX

Baltimore plays its third straight game vs. a NFC North foe, and so far the results have been mixed, bad on the road, good at home. Fortunately, this week’s contest is in the latter grouping, versus the bumbling Bears, who have lost eight of their last nine games against the spread. The last time Chicago (5-8, 4-9 ATS) visited an AFC team, it was clobbered by Cincinnati 45-10, and in this game they will be looking to negate a trend that finds them 7-25 ATS in December road contests. Baltimore (7-6 SU & ATS) has thrived under John Harbaugh versus bad teams, going 8-0 ATS against those with a losing record, including last week’s walloping of Detroit. That win kept the Ravens’ playoff hopes afloat, but following this home finale, they’ll spend their final two weeks on the road, at Pittsburgh and Oakland.

Keys to the Game-

San Diego and Indianapolis run the ball nearly as bad Chicago, who is dead last in the NFL at 85.7 yards per game. One HUGE difference, they both have prolific passing attacks, the Bears, not so much. For Chicago to pull the upset, they have to create any kind of seam for Matt Forte to run thru since the door has been closed most of the season. Da Bears are 9-21 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better in the second half of the season and have to rattle QB Joe Flacco, since the Ravens receivers are average at best. Baltimore averages 4.6 yards per carry (5th), Chicago surrenders 4.4 YPC (20th), which suggests the Bears front seven has to lower this figure to under four to stay competitive.

Because of the end of the season playoff chatter, Baltimore hung a Navy triple option-like 308 yards rushing on Detroit last week. The offensive line made every running play look like a trip to the bowling alley, knocking Lions down with ease in averaging 7.7 yards per carry. The Bears defensive front has been nothing special and they will at least try to simulate similar results. They should give Flacco time to find open receivers in Chicago secondary, with the Ravens 20-8 ATS after rushing for 175 or more yards. Baltimore secondary is not adequate versus most good passing teams, the Bears’ pass catchers sloppy routes and Jay Cutler’s lack of accuracy creates turnover potential for them. Chicago's attitude about arriving late in Baltimore will play a factor in the outcome.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 11
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -11, 39

Cincinnati at San Diego 4:05E CBS

Perhaps the biggest game on the Week 15 NFL slate, Cincinnati and San Diego go head-to-head with a possible bye in the first round of the playoffs hanging in the balance. For the Bengals (6-7 ATS), the mere thought of that was highly improbable at the outset of 2009, yet here they are, 9-4 and headed towards the AFC North title. They have been particularly effective as underdogs, sporting 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. They will need to come up with a truly special effort to upset San Diego though, as the Chargers (7-6 ATS) have won their last eight games to move to 10-3. They have also done very well historically against Cincinnati, compiling a 7-2 SU and ATS record in last nine meetings. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are now 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in December after their win in Dallas.

Keys to the Game –

It has been an unbelievable 2009 for the Bengals. It is hard to fathom their mental state after the death Chris Henry. Helping assistant coach Mike Zimmer overcome the loss of wife is one thing, but this is a teammate. It’s not like Cincinnati has been sailing along either, particularly on offense. Since ringing up 45 on the Bears, Cincy has totaled a mere 16.8 points per game, with almost no pass offense. From scheme perspective, all their AFC North rivals run the same 3-4 defense as San Diego, making preparation simpler. Cincinnati has seen too many third and longs of late and has to do a better job of managing down and distance. The Bengals are 6-3-1 ATS in the second of two road tilts and will have to have monster games from corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, who are talented enough to limit San Diego receivers.

Though it may sound callous, San Diego has to start fast to make Cincinnati players feel worse than they already do. The Bengals has presented little in the way of passing, thus blitz Carson Palmer repeatedly. Offensively, make them play the whole field, throw short and long, run screens to both sides and mix in running game. The Chargers are a momentum team and are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins since 2007. Cincinnati ranks second in the NFL in both average number of plays on scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19), making it imperative San Diego doesn’t allow them to dominate the time they possess the pigskin. Watch this closely, as the Bolts have conceded 5.1 yards per carry in last four games.

3DWLine – San Diego by 10.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -7, 43.5

Green Bay at Pittsburgh 4:15E FOX

Pittsburgh has lost its last five games and, by all rights, seems to have been removed from any playoff consideration. In fact, Green Bay (9-4) can thank schedule makers for giving them the Steelers at the right time. Even still, this is a dangerous spot for the Packers (8-4-1 ATS), who look to hang on to their wildcard position in the NFC playoff standings. This is the second of back-to-back road games for them after the win in Chicago last week and upped their road mark to 20-9 ATS under coach Mike McCarthy. Pittsburgh (6-7, 4-9 ATS) is in the unsightly situation of a defending champion relegated to spoiler for the last three weeks of the season. They are 6-1 SU and ATS in their previous games hosting the NFC. Home teams have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in last four get-togethers between these storied franchises.

Keys to the Game-

Green Bay has never played in Heinz Field, last visiting Pittsburgh 11 years ago. This is not ideal location to get kicker Mason Crosby back on track, nonetheless, unless he stops missing makeable field goals, eventually the Pack will be picked off. Excellent game for Packers to use tight ends, as Steelers will blitz from every direction and try to double wide receivers depending on formation. Utilize Jermichael Finley extensively. With Green Bay looking like NFC wild card club, McCarthy should change up red zone offense to add more traditional sets to increase productively since empty backfield has seen mixed at best results. The Pack’s second rated defense can lead the way since they are 6-0 AT in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two consecutive contests.

Pittsburgh can only blame themselves for this five-game losing streak. The Steelers have lost to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, who are a combined 6-30 if you take away their wins over Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh players are to learn one lesson, they found out they couldn’t just “turn it on” when they felt like it and if that same attitude persists, Green Bay will cuff them. This whole Ben Roethlisberger taking sacks is getting old, since the physical beating has to be taking a toll and he needs to get rid the ball and make better reads or the Packers defenders will be all over him as well. It’s been 35 games since Steelers allowed 100-yard rusher, however they have surrendered over 137 yards per game in their last three and take on a hot one-cut back in Ryan Grant. Pitt is 13-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, does Steelers pride show up?

3DW Line – Green Bay by 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -2, 41

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.