Happy New Year

To start football for 2010, the compelling game of the three is probably the least interesting in football terms. Today marks the end of the line for Bobby Bowden’s historic coaching career. He was as gracious in defeat as he was in victory and the game of college football takes a hit for losing such a great man. The best early game is LSU and Penn State in the Holiday Bowl with two schools synonymous with winning. The Big Ten Conference opened strong in the bowl season with Wisconsin victory; can Northwestern build on the momentum with their first postseason triumph in 62 years?


Outback Bowl
Auburn vs. Northwestern
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa
11:00E ESPN

Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948, to break that trend it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the New Year’s Day conflicts. The Wildcats haven’t played on Jan. 1 since 1997and are underdogs to Auburn (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) team, which won just two of its last seven games in 2009. Interestingly, the Outback underdog has covered the number the last five times the pointspread exceeded four points. Auburn offers a new approach as offensive team these days; however is 5-9 ATS as bowl chalk. The Tigers were 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS vs. other bowlers. Northwestern (5-6 ATS) won last three games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4.

Reasons to wager – Don’t right off Northwestern in this New Year’s opener. QB Mike Kafka is an all-purpose performer and the Wildcats are well-suited for this role since they are 10-3 ATS as underdogs recently, with eight outright upsets. While Auburn’s offense saw dramatic improvement this season, the defense went backwards, allowing a SEC-high 26.9 points per game. Though the players change, coach Gene Chizik should remind his team, Northwestern has given 43.8 points a bowl in last six tries. The Tigers will look to establish runners Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb. If they do, this opens up passing lanes for Chris Todd who threw 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions. The Auburn defense has to turnover the Wildcats since they are 2-9 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last two seasons. Sportsbook.com has Northwestern catching eight points with total of 54 and the Wildcats are 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, losing by 3.2 point per game.

3DW Line – Auburn by 7

Capitol One Bowl
LSU vs. Penn State
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
1:00E ABC

Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995, but two of the losses happened in Orlando. The Nittany Lions yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. LSU was 9-3 and 5-6-1 ATS, allowing just 16.0 points per game. The Tigers will also be looking to extend a run of overall success in bowl games, as they boast a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 1995. Under head coach Les Miles, the Tigers are 15-6 ATS in games versus non-conference foes. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in L5 matchups.

Reasons to wager- Both of these teams are perfectly placed in Orlando, since neither could beat the superior teams in their conference and their best wins are ordinary to say the least. Penn State emerges as winner if they stop a pedestrian LSU offensive line. It appears they should, however the only comparable opponents Penn State faced were Iowa and Oho State and they shoved the ball down the Nittany Lions throat for a combined 391 rushing yards. Penn State is a mere 6-17 ATS away from Mt. Nittany vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game. LSU has lacked any sort of offensive consistency all year and doesn’t figure to find it against a solid Penn State defense. What the Tigers have to do is stop Lions offense and win field position battle and stick with the running game. Jordan Jefferson can hit six passes in a row and miss next six, get him in comfortable locations on the field for success. LSU is 12-1 ATS away from home after consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

3DW Line – Penn State by 4

Gator Bowl
West Virginia vs. Florida State
Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville
1:00E CBS

This will be Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sidelines for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. With Florida State sporting a 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, they shouldn’t be playing New Year’s Day, but TV ratings matter. Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. West Virginia (5-6 ATS) is 9-3 and has won four straight bowl games, with last loss coming to same opponent in this very game in 2005. The ACC is 7-2 ATS the previous nine encounters.

Reasons to wager- Not sure if there are exceptional reasons to tune in and place money on this Gator Bowl. Florida State’s flaws were spotted early, allowing almost 400 passing yards to Miami and having to come from behind in the fourth quarter to hold off Jacksonville State. Finishing second in too many recruiting battles, shows the Seminoles record is well-deserved. On offense, E.J. Manuel has stepped in for injured Christian Ponder, with mixed results. Like most freshmen quarterbacks, he was poised when he had time, but got in a hurry when pressured and was less selective in the red zone. The Noles are 29-11 ATS after two or more consecutive spread. Betting on old smiley face from West Virginia can be hazardous to one’s health and wagering account. West Virginia is 2.5-point favorite with total of 60 and coach Bill Stewart is 6-13 ATS as the favorite wearing the lead head set. The Mountaineers win this game with ease if QB Jarrett Brown returns to his pre-concussion form from October. West Virginia has too many speedy players to account for and if Brown is close to 100 percent clarity with this much time off, no reason they don’t knock off Florida State, except for the Stewart factor.

3DW Line – West Virginia by 4