Rose Bowl Preview

With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State (9-3 ATS) is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since ’95. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon (7-5 ATS) prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. The Ducks are the favorite and they are 1-6 ATS as bowlers in that role. The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS as bowl dogs since 2002. The Pac-10 is 20-11 ATS in last 31 “Grand Daddy” games. The Big Ten has lost last six trips to Pasadena.

The Big Ten prides itself in the football sense on sending a team to the Rose Bowl on par with BCS championship game; it’s what Midwesterner’s know after all these years. This is a VERY important encounter for the conference and the Buckeyes. They’ve lost three straight BCS games to superior teams and though Oregon is the favorite, the Ducks are not in the class of the last trio of squads Ohio State has played in January.

Ohio State’s calling card is defense and they will have to find ways to shutdown the multi-faceted attack of the Ducks. Terrelle Pryor learned at the altar of Brett Favre to announce injury and say it is no big deal, entering in the Rose Bowl. Pryor has a torn PCL, which should limit him to pocket passer.

The Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season the last two years and will lean on their offensive line to maintain the 199 yard average on the ground to combat the Ducks defense. That means the offensive line has to shove around Oregon and RB’s Dan Herron and Brandon Saine have to hit creases with authority. The Ohio State defense has forced two or more turnovers in 10 of 12 games this season and will need to keep that pace and score touchdowns if they create Oregon miscues. The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS off a SU win, like they enjoyed over Michigan.

Oregon on paper is the better team and wins this game surprisingly easy if they mount an early 10 or 14-point lead. Ohio State is 106th passing in the country and unless they are fortunate enough to hit a few deep balls, the Ducks should be able to play well with the lead. Coach Chip Kelly’s diversified attack has the opportunity to keep Ohio State players and coaches guessing all day pass or run and LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli could have a wonderful opening of 2010 for team that is 6-0 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest over the last three seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Oregon as 4.5-point favorites with total of 50.5. Common opponents give the edge to the Ducks having beaten USC and Purdue, while Ohio State lost to both. System players should be aware New Year’s Day underdogs of three or more that played on the first day of new year or in BCS game as an underdog of 4.5 or more a season ago are 9-2 ATS.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 2