Independence Bowl Preview

Expect a shootout in Shreveport, when QB Jerrod Johnson and Texas A&M (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) hook up with his counterpart Joe Cox of Georgia (7-5, 4-7 ATS). The Aggies ranked in the Top 25 nationally in scoring and most phases of offense, while the Bulldogs surrendered 26.4 points per game, the most since 1990. This lead to DC Willie Martinez and two other assistants to be released, which means coach Mark Richt will be more involved with that side of the ball. The Aggies defense conceded 32.7 points per game, including 47 or more four different times. This is Georgia’s lowest-tiered bowl in eight years.

Georgia is another squad with Play On tendencies sporting 25-16-1 bowl record; with 16-11 ATS mark. The Bulldogs are a ferocious 10-2 and 9-3 ATS in last dozen bowl pairings. Georgia only played three teams that didn’t go bowling and finished 4-5 and 3-6 ATS against them. Texas A&M is back in the bowl scene after a year away and seeks to improve recent 1-7 and 1-6 spread record as bowler. The Aggies were 2-4 and 3-3 ATS when matched versus other bowl clubs. The underdog is 7-4 ATS in last 11 Independence clashes, with the SEC 8-2 and 7-3 ATS.

Coach Richt isn’t trying to redo the Georgia defense, just find a way to make it survive a single bowl game. "I'm not trying to reinvent anything," he told reporters last week, "My role is to set the parameters and make sure everything is being covered and to make sure we have a plan schematically and a plan to implement that strategy.

Richt hopes his stop troops can have an impact, since they are 13-39 ATS when they allow 28 or more points. Beyond linebacker Rennie Curran, Georgia is only average on the defensive side of the ball.

The Texas A&M defense is abysmal, which suggests the only way to win is scoring, with Johnson having a big ball game. Depending on how a person wants to view the Aggies, they are 13-3 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards like they did against Texas or 5-15 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards as they did against the Longhorns.

No matter how you look at it, points shouldn’t be an issue, with the total up 66.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com, with Georgia favored by 6.5-points. Texas A&M is 11-2 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons, while the Bulldogs are 20-7 UNDER after covering the spread in two out of their last three games.

The Independence Bowl starts at 5:00 Eastern on ESPN2 in what should be an entertaining high scoring affair.

3DW Line – Georgia by 4