2009 Rose Bowl Betting Preview

This year’s Rose Bowl matchup embodies the tradition of the event. Two long time college football powers, both of whom could have easily been playing for the BCS title will collide. In the last seven Rose Bowl games, the average total score has been 52.8 points per game. The way these two defenses line up, that seems as likely to happen as keeping your New Year’s resolution by the end of the month.

This figures to be a Keith Jackson special, with the “big hosses” up front controlling the action, particularly on defense. For a refresher, here are some of the numbers USC and Penn State put up on defense.

Total Defense
USC – 1st 206.1 yards per game
Penn State -5th 263.9 yards per game

Run Defense
USC – 5th 83.2 YPG
Penn State -8th 92.9 YPG

Pass Defense
USC – 1st 122.1 YPG
Penn State -12th 168 YPG

Points Allowed
USC – 1st 7.7 points per game
Penn State -3rd 12.4 points per game


The heralded USC (11-1, 7-5 ATS) defense was as good as advertised, except for one half against Oregon State. That’s not to say the Trojans didn’t catch any breaks. They played Ohio State without Beanie Wells, Oregon during its quarterback injury problems and the Pac-10 for the most part was weak. That’s not to take away anything from their performance on the field; these are just facts for team that is 13-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Rose Bowl has been a graveyard for the Big Ten, with a 10-19 ATS record in their meeting with the Pac-10. They haven’t won since 2001, when Wisconsin Barry Alvarez was in his hey-day and this conference has not covered the number against a Pacific 10 team since Ohio State scored late as two-point favorites against Arizona State to win 20-17, back in 1997.

Why should Penn State (11-1, 7-3-1 ATS) be any different? In many ways the Nittany Lions shouldn’t, since they are 0-10 ATS in road games vs. excellent defenses allowing 2.75 or less yards a carry. Penn State has also struggled mightily against defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game, with 0-13 spread record. For all the early season talk about the new offense, the Nittany Lions were stymied by Ohio State and non-existent against Iowa in the second half in their only loss, when they failed to capitalize on scoring chances in the first half in Iowa City.

So how does Penn State not only cover, but pull the upset against USC? Bookmaker.com has the Nittany Lions on the receiving end of 8.5-points with a total of 45, down three points from opening number. Joe Paterno and his staff have the best offensive line the Trojans have faced all year, period. The way to get them off-guard is to smack them in the mouth and utilize “trickeration” to get them to think, as opposed to play instinctively. USC is outstanding, however they don’t rise to every occasion and their offense can be contained as Arizona and California proved holding them to 17 points.

USC has to cut off the head, which in this case is quarterback, Daryll Clark. If the senior has issues, the Penn State offense has issues. As can be the case in big games, if USC jumps off to 10-0 lead in the first quarter, the Nittany Lions might get a little panicky, especially against this defense and start trying to make unnatural plays. If Pete Carroll’s crew can do this, they’ll move Penn State to 1-10 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points a game.

Jo Paterno happily returns to Pasadena for the first time in 14 years with his best team since then, he hopes he can leave just as happy as last time.