Suger Bowl Wagering Preview

What mindset does Alabama (12-1) bring to the Sugar Bowl? Are they angry about losing to Florida or do they have hangover like many unbeaten teams before them, losing last game. The Crimson Tide ended up 9-4 ATS this season and third in the country on defense. At least they will have head coach Nick Saban harping at them to finish the season the right way.

“Our players are certainly disappointed,” Saban said. “But this is an opportunity. If you’re going to be a great team, when you lose, you want to come back and play your best the next time you play.” Alabama returns to New Orleans for the first time since New Year’s Day 1993, when they won their last national championship, in upsetting Miami-Fl. 34-13 as eight point underdogs.

Alabama has tremendous talent on both sides of the ball and could impose their will on Utah. Make no mistake; this by all appearances is not last year’s Georgia and Hawaii Sugar Bowl. Utah has a football program that has gone unbeaten twice during the regular season in the last five years. The Utes have won seven consecutive bowl games and have beaten proven teams like TCU and Oregon State this season, albeit in Salt Lake City. Utah (12-0, 7-4 ATS) does have added pressure of trying to uphold the non-BCS schools that have gotten to this stage. The Utes are 10-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Crimson Tide are in a bad spot from public relations viewpoint, because a win and cover or even blowout will be looked upon with a yawn, and a close game or even upset of Bama would send shockwaves for a team that was number one not that many weeks ago. Alabama is 4-9 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has Utah as 9.5-point underdogs with total of 45.5. The Utes are 23-9 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest and can make even further noise about a playoff system with the upset. Utah has been one the best bowl team’s period with 10-3 and 8-3 ATS record. How they pull the upset is halting the Tide running game. Utah was 14th in the country against the run and Alabama’s toughest games were when the running game was held in check, like Ole Miss, Tulane and Florida did in particular. Offensively, Utah has to move the chains and hope to hit big plays that lead to touchdowns. The Utes are 22-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Watching film of Utah, probably was like scouting yourself is what the Alabama coaches thought. They like to control the clock with the run and have efficient passing game that chews up real estate. If the Tide can jump to quick lead like they often have in big games, they put the pressure on Utah to succeed immediately, not necessarily their strength. In many ways this is the reverse of the SEC title game for Saban’s squad. Bama was a significant underdog and managed to take a lead into the fourth quarter before wilting. The possibility strongly exists that Utah could do the same, before the stronger and better Alabama team controls the game in the final stanza.

If Alabama has the same thirst as USC did in the Rose Bowl, the results could be similar, however if the Crimson Tide come with the same emotional level as fellow SEC bowler South Carolina did, now this gets real interesting.

Alabama is 8-4 SU all-time in the Sugar Bowl and the SEC is 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The favorite is 15-7 ATS the last 22 matchups in New Orleans.