Betting Home Courts in College Hoops

The home court advantage in college basketball varies widely. Some handicappers automatically assign a number to everybody’s home court, usually 3 to 5 points. The well-known statistician, Jeff Sagarin, whose work appears in “USA Today”, usually has it pegged on average as slightly less than four points.

It is my belief the value of the home court varies among teams. Certain conferences even show tendencies on how teams generally perform as a home favorite or underdog. One of the biggest challenges in handicapping college hoops is the sheer number of games to wager on. With way over 200 lined teams to wager on, I will look at any thing that gives me an edge. Using the generalization of conference tendencies helps me eliminate some games or put them on my “short list” for further evaluation.

For example, UC-Riverside is a team I believe is worthy of backing and recently made my “play on” list. They were visiting Denver University. Denver is on my list of not to play against at home. The reason is Denver is 29-13 against the point spread at home the past four seasons, a 69% success rate. UCR was a 4 to 5.5 underdog but ending up losing and failing to cover, albeit it was a close game. Even though I am looking to play UCR, I am not going to play them against a team with such a great home court ATS record as Denver’s.

Other teams with excellent home ATS records the past four years are Weber State, 29-13, Southern Miss, 25-13, 65.8%, Mississippi State, 35-20, 63.6%, and Bradley, Tennessee, Wright State, and New Mexico, all above 60%. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, ACC powerhouses North Carolina, 39-18, 68.4%, and Duke, 35-23, 60.3%, are money-makers at home.

Many people call great winning straight-up records at home a “great home court advantage”. Well, to the average fan that is correct who doesn’t care about point spread results. To the sports bettor, a great home court straight-up record might even mean a team is good to bet against on their “strong home court” as the linesmaker might be giving their opponents extra value. Wisconsin has a great home record straight-up, 141-14, over the past ten seasons going into this year. I easily can see playing the Badgers in a short-lined game or as a home underdog. However, over the past four years Wisconsin is only 28-29 ATS in home lined games. Their SU record is impressive, 64-5, over those four years, but the ATS mark is what I look at first.

As mentioned above, let’s look at some of the conference tendencies we have discovered.

Since the 2004 season, The Big 12 has had a very good record when they are at home lined at pick’em or a very short favorite up to -2.5 points: 30-13, 69.8%. The home favorite advantage stops when Big 12 teams are laying 7 to 17 points as at that level the home squad can only muster a 44.2% coverage rate, 68-86. Home dogs fare fairly well in the Big 12 as home teams getting 3 or more points but less than 10 are 40-29, 58.0%.

Another strong home court advantage in conference play shows up in the Big Ten where single-digit home favorites are covering the spread at a wallet-fattening 58.9% of the time, 99-69, since 2004. However, those point spread wins don’t come very easily when the home favorite is laying double-digits. Teams laying ten-points or more have cashed tickets only 43.7% of the time even though straight-up the highly-favored home team has won 105 out of 108 games.

Something many sports bettors don’t do is to look at lined totals in college hoops. Maybe this stat will have you start paying more attention to playing totals: In Big 10 conference games involving double-digit home favorites, the Under is 61-36, 62.9%. If the points being laid is 14 or more, the Under improves to 68.2%.

The Big East is one of the worst conferences overall when it comes to home-court advantage. With 16 teams in the basketball version of the conference, there is a larger gap in quality of the top-tier and bottom-rung teams. Home underdogs of any point spread have only covered the number 43.7% of the time over the past four seasons. An interesting side note is the Over wins 54.2% of the time when a home dog in league play is involved.

A strong home-court advantage is not the case in the Big East when the home team is a single-digit underdog covering the spread only 43.2% of the time. The Big East is such a large league that many times there is a bigger difference in talent from the top to the bottom and the number of sub-par teams.

In direct contrast to the Big East, the Sun Belt Conference has an exceptional record for home dogs since 2004, 49-34 ATS, 59.0%. The sweet spot is when a home team is getting 3 to 6.5 points, 22-9 ATS, 71.0%. The geographic range of the SBC is rather large stretching from Denver to the tip of Florida. Some of the smaller cities where schools are located also helps make travel a challenge.

Of course if you want to believe that a fair amount of distance traveled to a road destination is a factor, then you would want to look at the WAC. There are schools located in Louisiana to Idaho to Hawaii. There is a super-sharp differential between the point spread record of home favorites and underdogs at home. Regardless of the line, WAC teams laying points at home in a conference game have only covered the number 42.8% of the time since the 2004 season. The best line to bet against home faves is when they are favored by less than seven points to pick’em, 64.8% winners taking the road team and the points.

Road favorites in the WAC don’t do well either, 39-51, 43.3%. Again, the good spot to go against these favorites is when they are favored by less than seven points to pick’em, 26-36, 41.9%. However, a past trend you should know about is these WAC road teams giving less than seven points are 26-12 Over the lined total, 68.4%.

I imagine a lot of people assume that teams traveling to Hawaii for a conference game helps skew the numbers believing the visiting team will be too tired and the influence of the time zone difference. Actually, over the past four seasons, Hawaii has virtually an exact .500 ATS record in conference play. Yes, their straight-up record is very good, but the point spread is the great equalizer and you know the oddsmaker is shading the line to Hawaii’s side in home games on the island.

In conference play, an exceptional home court advantage when the line is a pick’em to a 2.5 point underdog occurs in the Southeastern Conference. Small home dogs are 22-12, 64.7%, against the spread since 2004 in the SEC. The straight-up record isn’t bad either at 19-15. With the line that small, the teams are very evenly matched and the advantage of playing at home comes through.

However, in SEC games if the two teams aren’t as evenly matched and the home team is getting 3 to 7 points, the ATS record of the home team is a losing 21-31, 40.4%, and a dismal 18-34 SU, 34.6%.

For you totals players, a great spot in SEC games that wins 73.9% of the time since 2004 is to take the Under when a home team is favored by 14 or more points.

The Mid-American Conference has a very strong home-court advantage overall. However, it really is because of the huge quality difference between a few good squads and three to six squads that fall below 200 in college RPI ratings. Home favorites in MAC games over the past four seasons are winning ATS at a 58.6% rate, 157-111. Teams from pick’em to 2.5 point favorites are virtually .500, 28-30 ATS. However, with such a wide differential in the top MAC squads and the bottom-feeders, you would assume home dogs don’t do so well. Overall, the past four seasons home MAC dogs are covering 47.6% of the point spreads.

Knowing the true value of home courts helps the sports bettor gain an edge for profitability.

Author Jim Kruger is the brains behind Las Vegas Sports Authority.