Hunting for Hoops Winners Can Be Done

With football over for yet another season, unless the Pro Bowl is part of your betting plans, it is time to turn full attention to college basketball wagering. With Wednesday, Thursday and especially Saturday cards often cumbersome because of the sheer volume of games, it can be wise to shave the number of contests down to more manageable numbers. How this can be accomplished is finding particular conferences that have proven to have value.

By now, every league is either at or halfway past the midpoint of conference slate and solid information can be found to utilize for wagering purposes. Three conferences in particular have yielded distinct info, which should be followed, with the intent of cashing in for significant profits.

The Sun Belt Conference is like a few other leagues in college landscape. The Big Ten has 11 teams, the Atlantic 10 has 14 squads and Denver U. and North Texas (Denton) would hardly be considered part of anybody’s list of vacation spots in the Sun Belt region. Fortunately, the goal isn’t to be like the late George Carlin and make sense of the arrangement, instead just to study the facts.

Presently, the Sun Belt ranks 19th in the latest Sagarin Ratings in college hoops among the 33 conferences. With the SBC a bit unwieldy with its 13 teams, certain numbers can be skewed in determining different factors. For example, a conference with vast number of universities could see the records of home team wins watered-down by those occupying the lower regions. The Big East is a perfect example of this, with the division between the have’s and have-nots, roughly the size of our domestic and foreign trade imbalance.

Sun Belt home teams have won 63 percent of conference games (41-24) which is about average overall. This is where things get interesting. Only one team in the league has a defense that allows below 40 percent shooting (39.8), and that is Arkansas State who comes in at 13-8 and .500 in league play.

Thus we establish the SBC is not a great defensive league, which leads to the profit point we are seeking. Sun Belt home teams cough up the cash with great regularity, sporting a 23-41-1, 35.9 ATS mark. With just a few better teams like Western Kentucky, Ark-Little Rock and Middle Tenn. State, the rest are pedestrian, with no atrocious teams, save Florida Atlantic.

This looks to be a real opportunity, with one caveat. Denver University, year in, year out, is one of the toughest stops in the Sun Belt because of the altitude. This season the Pioneers are 4-1 SU and ATS in league action playing at Magness Arena. Subtract Denver’s wins and are wager on SBC road teams improves.

The Western Athletic Conference from time to time makes some noise and is ranked 13th by the Sagarin numbers. Utah State has just one blemish on the docket this season, losing to BYU. In truth, the rest of the conference record-wise leaves much to be desired. Nevada and Boise State are both not as strong as a year ago and the rest of the other six schools are at or below .500.

In league play, the home teams have among the worst records in all of college basketball, with a 20-15 record (57.1 percent). In studying the WAC’s numbers, all the teams are ordinary to slight better than average defensively, and offensively, most teams shoot the ball relatively well. The point is, other than Utah State, every team is capable of beating another home or away. This presents a splendid opportunity to play against home teams who are 12-23 against the spread.

Earlier, imbalance was mentioned in different conferences, where the best teams are Dick Vitale “Flat-out superior”. This appears to be the case in the Colonial Athletic Association, where Northeastern, Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason and Drexel are far above the rest, especially playing on the own courts.

These four teams have compiled a 20-3 record in league play at home and are sensational 17-6 ATS against all CAA comers, including playing among themselves.

In these recessionary times, we all have to work a little harder to have what we need and as this proves; the extra work can place more money in your pocket.