Super Bowl XLIII- Who Covers and Why

Finally. That’s right, Sunday night at 6:28 Eastern time, the Super Bowl will start and all the rhetoric about Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm being jilted by the Pittsburgh organization, and the talk of the Steelers secondary having to face the greatest wide receiver ever to play the game in Larry Fitzgerald (That Rice guy used to be pretty good) will end. Now we can get down to the basics, blocking and tackling, who makes the best sight adjustments throughout the 60 minutes and who holds up under pressure. Here is a look at how each team wins and covers the spread. Pittsburgh gets to go first since they are the road team, called heads and will take the ball.

Pittsburgh wins and covers because…

They can play keep away, holding the ball for over 32 minutes during the regular season and almost 35 minutes in the playoffs. They have the ability to demoralize opponents, since offensive coordinator Bruce Arians won’t give up on the run and if Pittsburgh has success, they will just pound away until they break opposing team’s will.

Arizona DC Clancy Pendegrast will attack the Steelers offense with blitzes trying to get the ball out of Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, with the intent of forcing mistakes. The Steelers can counter this with draws, screens and utilizing tight end Heath Miller to move the chains. The goal of the Pittsburgh offense is to push, push and push the Cardinals and hit a few big plays with Willie Parker running the ball or deep shots to Santonio Holmes. Don’t be surprised if Nate Washington has bigger impact than Hines Ward in this big game.

If defense wins championships, Pittsburgh is perfectly situated to take home a record sixth Super Bowl trophy. The Steelers allowed 161.5 yards per game as the NFL’s top pass defense and Arizona has passed for 284.9 yards per game in 19 outings. That is a preposterous 122.4 yards difference comparing the strengths of the two teams. Even if Pittsburgh allows half the total of 61 yards, they have effectively taken away a large chunk of the Arizona attack. The idea with Fitzgerald is to not have him make big plays since he will we get his catches and limit the other receivers.

Dick LeBeau defense first needs to corral the Arizona running game. Though Kurt Warner is having a special season, he has gotten rattled this year and it usually happens early. Make Warner’s emotions work against him and pressure him with different looks. If Warner gets that eye-wided snarl on his face, the Steelers will be wearing the Super Bowl winners t-shirts and hats.

Arizona wins and covers because…

The defense is playing tough, assignment-oriented football. In every playoff game, the Arizona defense has not only stopped the run, they have done so with discipline to prevent big plays. Both Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook made defenders miss running the ball, but the Cardinals defenders maintained gap control and held them to minimal gains time and again. Keeping Parker boxed will force the Steelers to look for other alternatives.

The aforementioned Clancy Pendegrast has to be excited in viewing the tape of all the problems the Pittsburgh offensive linemen had with the Baltimore stunts and games up front, especially on the right side. Look for him to find out if they have corrected this issue, if not, Ben Roethlisberger can expect to see red shirts and white helmets in his line of vision and around him all day. Give a disrespected underdog a reason to play harder, they will.

Part of Arizona’s success in the postseason has been their ability to start and keep the pressure on their opponents. When teams trail in the playoffs, coaches feel a different sense of urgency because a loss means elimination. The Cardinals for the most part have been in control most of the three games. Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have balanced the Redbirds offense, creating more opportunities in the passing game. Arizona is 9-0 SU and ATS if they out-rush the opposition this season.

The Cards offensive line has to be aware of linebacker James Harrison at all times. He has been the most disruptive individual defender in the NFL this year. Warner has to keep his cool and might be forced to look to receivers Steve Breaston and even Jereme Urban, with how the Steelers can play defense. Though Warner is a seasoned veteran, capable of reading any defense, he still has to make the plays, particularly in the moment. If he realizes the Steelers defense will force enough three and outs, yet can still be had with the multitude of weapons, possibly the most unlikely Super Bowl champion since the New York Jets in the third Super Bowl will be crowned.