Betting the Big East Quarterfinals

For many, the first two days of the Big East tournament were like finger food, not bad, some more tasty than others. Starting today, everybody can take a seat because the main courses are about to be served.

Top seeded Louisville makes its first appearance since being crowned regular season champions last Saturday night when they take on Providence. The Cardinals come into the tournament playing as well as any team in the country having won seven in a row and 17 of last 19 (13-6 ATS). Coach Rick Pitino would enjoy pulling double of winning both titles, but leaves a very telling quote to at least consider about his team.

We want to win, we want to win another championship,” he said. “But we just spent three months to win a championship. We’re not going to beat ourselves up over three days.” Read into it what you want. The Cardinals are mind-boggling 39-13-2 ATS in Big East action and 9-3 ATS after they’ve covered the spread.

Providence turned up the defense late in the game to pull away from DePaul 83-74, earning first Big East tournament win in six attempts. Though they held the Blue Demons without a field goal for almost eight minutes, Providence will need a much stronger overall performance to take down Louisville. The Friars are 3-8 ATS in last 11 contests and face Cardinals defense that allows just 38.9 percent shooting away from home. Providence opened as 8.5-point underdogs at Bookmaker.com and is 0-4 SU and ATS against the Cards the last dozen years.

The other afternoon matchup has Marquette facing fourth seeded Villanova. The Golden Eagles had lost four in a row before spanking St. John’s 74-45 yesterday. Marquette did exactly what they needed to; they jumped on inferior opponent, regained a measure of confidence and the starters didn’t have to go hard for 40 minutes to conserve some energy. The Golden Eagles realize if Dominic James doesn’t get hurt, they would have had the bye instead of Villanova and they are 8-2 ATS in neutral site conflicts.

Villanova has been in the shadows of larger Big East foes, yet arrive in New York having won 11 of last 13 (9-4 ATS). The Wildcats have two things going for them that should allow them to emerge victorious. Villanova’s bench averages 19.3 points per game, as coach Jay Wright has talked for six weeks about having seven starters. Conversely, Marquette having already played a game and get almost nothing from its bench players, placing more pressure on starters to have big games. Nova is 9-1 ATS against teams with 60 percent or higher win percentage and is a 1.5-point favorite. Villanova lit up Marquette for 102 points in 18-point victory on Feb.10 and the favorite is 5-0 and 4-1 ATS since 2006.

Round Three of the Backyard Brawl commences in the evening at MSG. West Virginia was extremely aggressive from the opening tap and buried Notre Dame with three point barrage. The Mountaineers made 11 of 20 treys, but overall were not especially effective in shooting just 35.9 percent from the field. West Virginia may be 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less three straight games, but they haven’t taken on the likes of Pittsburgh in next contest.

The Panthers have already beaten and covered their rival twice this season. If there was ever a beast in the Big East tournament it’s Pittsburgh, who has been to the finals seven of the last eight years. Pittsburgh has been accused in some circles of placing too much emphasis on winning this event, which has led to flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Guard Jermaine Dixon has an answer for detractors.

“We want to win it,” guard Jermaine Dixon said. “People probably think it’s going to be easy for us if we lose, it would be easier for us going into the NCAA tournament. But we definitely want to win the Big East tournament.

“It’s March now. So it’s time to go undefeated. We’ve got to go undefeated now so we can win everything.”

Pittsburgh is 15-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and are a four-point favorite over West Virginia.

To close out the quarterfinal action, a surging Syracuse club will do business with Connecticut. The Orangemen are putting the ball in the basket with great regularity, shooting 56.9 percent against Seton Hall in winning by 15 points. Syracuse has now shot 50 percent or higher in five consecutive games, all wins and covers.

The task becomes more challenging, just like it was Feb.11 when the Orangemen were shutdown completely, in shooting 31.7 percent against Connecticut and held to season low 49 points.

“We can’t let them dominate us,” Syracuse guard Jonny Flynn said. “(Thabeet) basically dominated the game … from a defensive standpoint. I think we just have to go in there stronger. … Really go at the mindset we’re not going to let this guy control the game from a defensive standpoint.”

Big East Co-Player of the Year Hasheem Thabeet blocked seven shots in that game and controlled the glass with 16 rebounds. Connecticut is off another loss to Pittsburgh, sending their record to 0-6 ATS the past few years. UConn opened as 3.5-point favorites and went to five, which is curious, seeing they are 5-16 ATS as neutral site favorites.

I was 3-1 yesterday, taking record to 5-3 ATS and like the chalk in the afternoon session with Louisville and Villanova. I’ll back Pittsburgh in a close game, but take the five with the Orange. Until tomorrow.