Big 10(11) Fraught with Danger for Bettors

The Big Ten Tournament is often a lot like watching your clothes in the wash cycle, not to exciting and everything keeps bumping into each other. If you live in the Midwest or are from there, don’t get all defensive, it’s just the way basketball is played in that area of the country, it’s hard and mean, very similar to the weather most of the year.

However, if you were a fan of either of the George Bush’s as Presidents or Ronald Reagan for that matter, Big Ten basketball is everything that is right about the world (no pun intended), because it is about playing defense and protecting your territory.

The four quarterfinal matchups bring an element of fear to the sports bettor, because this conference is bunched very closely. Michigan State proved to be head and shoulders above everyone else, winning by four games over nearest competitors. The bottom feeders, Indiana and Iowa have been rightly dispatched and based on history, Northwestern being ousted is not going to be on the home page of TMZ.com.

This leaves us with eight teams and this is where the intrigue begins. Michigan State is lock for next week and is playing for higher seed. Illinois and Purdue are safe, yet both need to win or could fall into dreaded 7vs 10 or 8 vs 9 matchups, which are the proverbial roll of the dice. The rest, well they have work to do.

Most bracketologists have Wisconsin and Ohio State safe; however it can never hurt to have one more win. This matchup takes on relevance since the winner can have a better story to tell being on CBS Saturday afternoon and have a legit shot at playing in the tournament finals. Sportbook.com has Wisconsin as two-point favorite, having won seven of last nine.

Though the Badgers have thrived in this event, this is not the same caliber of team. Wisky’s defense isn’t nearly as stout, with opponents making 44 percent of shot attempts. The offense has become known for being consistently inconsistent. In their last seven games, Wisconsin has shot in the 40 to 49.9 percent range just once, finishing three times in the 30’s and three times in the 50+ percent area.

The Buckeyes have won three of four, yet are 2-4 ATS in last six. Put Ohio State down for 16-6 ATS in all tournament games recently.

Just before Wisky and the Buckeyes play Friday afternoon, top-seeded Michigan State and Minnesota meet. The Golden Gophers ended a five game drought away from the Land of 10,000 lakes in numbing Northwestern 66-53. Minnesota is catching seven-points and was beaten solidly by the Spartans by 29 and 12 points this year. Will this provide enough incentive for Michigan State to make the Gophers look less than golden or do the Spartans let Minny hang around and possibly get clipped like Kansas? Michigan State is only 1-7 against the number if opponent is seeded seventh or lower.

Illinois finished the year losing three of last five, including last two contests in Big Ten action. The Fighting Illini is 8-5 SU and ATS away from home and will tackle Michigan, whom they have not seen in a day short of two months. The Wolverines used the whipping stick on Iowa on Thursday and are 8-2 ATS since February, including having strung four in a row together. Like Minnesota, the team from Ann Arbor is on the fence and has to keep piling up wins and hope similar teams like Providence and Kansas State continue to fall. Michigan split with Illinois and are playing better than the Illini right now. The Wolverines are 2.5-point dogs.

Penn State is the last bubble-type out of the Big Ten who manhandled Indiana as expected. The Nittany Lions already have one win over third-seeded Purdue and has covered seven straight Big Ten tourney tilts. The Boilermakers were coming strong, however, lost three of last four, making them as big a mystery in this tournament as any remaining squad. Purdue is a seven-point favorite and if you believe in history, the No.3 seed has failed to cover the spread each time since 2004.

Six of the eight teams still left have .500 or better against the spread records, setting up real thought provoking picks for sports bettors.