ACCMarch 12-15 –Atlanta
The last few Atlantic Coast Conference Tournaments have lacked the panache of previous events, but by every college basketball individual that follows the game, this year’s tournament should bring it back to the head of the class. While North Carolina is the chalk in the tourney, they are not a sure thing having only covered the spread twice in nine games since February. Led by Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, the Tar Heels have the offensive capabilities to take down any team, nevertheless have defensive shortcomings. If North Carolina should stumble, the list of quality choices is better than a Subway sub shop.
Duke can score and defend enough to win, but will its starters be able to go the distance. Wake Forest is as talented as any team in the field, yet their inexperience does show up, particularly if guard Jeff Teague is stifled. Clemson is again creeping to the close, with 5-5 record, though still dangerous with style of play. You can’t teach height and Florida State has the most, as long a Toney Douglas can carry the offense, the Seminoles have shot. Boston College, Maryland and Virginia Tech are all capable of making the semi-finals. As certain announcer loves to say, “This year’s tournament should be awesome baby.”
Fast Fact – ACC underdogs are 36-20-1 ATS run.
Prediction: Play on North Carolina and Wake Forest for finals.
Sleeper: Florida State
Atlantic -10
March 11-15 -Atlantic City
Chalk is normally something you write with, not used for anything else. For sports bettors who follow the Atlantic-10, chalk is not only a writing utensil, but something to be watched very carefully for the profits it yields. In the last six years, the favorite in the A-10 tournament has covered the spread 63 percent of the time. This year Xavier, Dayton and rambunctious Rhode Island have been the class of the league. The Musketeers are turning into a reload program under coach Sean Miller, instead of having to rebuild. The Flyers have not found life as easy without point guard Rob Lowery, gone due to season ending injury. Dayton is 7-6 and 6-7 ATS away from home. The Rams are 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) since Jan. 24 and can play different styles to beat opponents.
Either Temple or St. Joseph’s usually manage to make at least the semi-finals, with the former having the better chance this season. One team to watch is St. Louis, who closed the regular season on 9-2 ATS push. Follow the betting favorites, just be selective.
Fast Fact – A-10 favorites are 41-24 ATS last six tournaments
Prediction: Play on Play on Temple and Rhode Island for finals.
Sleeper: Temple
Big East
March 10-14 – New York City
Without a doubt, the most anticipated tournament this year. The field has been expanded to include every one of the 16 teams, meaning single and double byes for the teams that have been in the Top 25 all season. The last several years a darkhorse has emerged, playing in the finals on fumes with four games in four days, winning the tournament as often as not. Pittsburgh was the club to do so last year in the Big Apple and they won’t have to worry about that this season with their positioning. Connecticut has the largest contingent of players to win in New York, but this has been the case previously, with the Huskies having not been in the finals since 2003.
Top-seeded Louisville is another squad that has enjoyed limited success in these type of tournaments and Marquette isn’t the same without guard Dominic James. Though their record is sensational at 25-6, Villanova receives little acclaim. This is one team very capable of winning it all, especially if Scottie Reynolds scores, since the Wildcats are 10-0 when Reynolds throws in 18 or more points a contest. West Virginia is the other team capable off making some noise.
Fast Fact – No. 5 seeds are 9-2 ATS as underdogs of three points or less
Prediction: Play on Pittsburgh and Villanova for finals
Sleeper: West Virginia (real stretch)
Big Ten
March 12-15 – Indianapolis
If you think Big Ten regular season champion Michigan State is a mortal lock to at least make the finals, slow down Spartan-boy breath. The last time coach Tom Izzo’s squad made a trip to the Big Ten finale, turn of the century fatalists were realizing they didn’t need to hoard products, because the world wasn’t going to end when the odometer turned to 2000. In truth, Michigan State should still have enough to make finals this year and the way the league played out, Indiana and Iowa are about the only teams they won’t face.
Because of the style of play most teams incorporate in this conference, these matchups tend to be very defensive and fairly dull. Wisconsin and Illinois typically have done well, having met twice in the last four years for the title. Best bets for this Midwestern competition would look to be to play on underdogs of more than four points, with how competitive the spots 2-9 are.
Fast Fact – First round underdogs are 14-4 ATS
Prediction: Play on Michigan State and Illinois for finals.
Sleeper: Wisconsin
Big 12
March 11-14 – Oklahoma City
The Big 12 has been about the big three all year, Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. The Sooners would seem to have a small edge, having a more bipartisan crowd in their favor, playing in their home state. Having soon to be player of the year Blake Griffin would also be in their favor. The Jayhawks have a more complete team suited to win three games in a row and can play a number of ways besides preferred uptempo. Missouri off their impressive win over the Sooners can not be ignored, with a bothersome defense, what they have to protect against is shooting meltdowns, since they are 1-4 and 0-5 ATS converting less than 40 percent from the field.
One team lurking as upset-maker is Oklahoma State. Oh sure, they are 0-4 against the Big 3, nonetheless, they finished the regular campaign on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS push and should have a great deal of confidence having similar crowd support to OU. You would like to believe Texas could be a factor, yet the Longhorns don’t play 40 minutes of quality basketball often enough.
Fast Fact – Big 12 favorites of six or more points are 6-29 ATS
Prediction: Play on Oklahoma and Kansas for finals
Sleeper: Oklahoma State
Conference -USA
March 11-14 – Memphis
If Memphis doesn’t win the Conference USA tournament again this year on there home court, you might want to start listening to those doomsayers about what is happening to the world. At least from conference perspective, the Tigers are as menacing as ever, making it a tussle for the right to play them. Tulsa and UAB are in the best positions to have the honor of being mauled by the Tigers, since they are the two and three seeds, meaning they can’t meet until the finals.
It is challenging to find a lower tier team to support. Marshall closed 6-3 (6-2 ATS), yet to embrace a club that is 2-13 and 5-9 ATS away from home is heart-stopping. Because the rest of the league is dismal, the best plays are to back underdogs in fairly even matched contests; at least you are receiving points.
C-USA championship game favorites are only 2-4 ATS in last six.
Fast Fact – C-USA underdogs are 37-26 ATS
Prediction: Play on Memphis and Tulsa for the finals
Sleeper: Houston
Mountain West
March 11-14 – Las Vegas
Its Vegas baby, unfortunately that doesn’t guaranteed the Runnin’ Rebels are a lock to be in the finals. UNLV finished fifth the Mountain West, suggesting they won’t have quite the fan support of prior years unless they make it to the title game. Lon Kruger’s club wasn’t bullet-proof at home either. The 15-2 record looks sharp, but the 6-8 ATS record is as vacant as all the hotel rooms.
The sad part is if UNLV is eliminated, they could take this tournament over The Orleans hotel gym and they might not fill up that much smaller seating facility either. That is too bad, as BYU, Utah and New Mexico are all teams worthy of NCAA consideration. The Cougars are the best of the trio, with 9-1 and 9-1 ATS record since Jan .30. BYU has several scoring options and can bang on defense. The Lobos only slipup since the calendar turned to February was at BYU and have shown they can play better on the road this year. The Utes fell to both of the close competitors on the road the last two weeks, yet still have wins over Gonzaga and LSU proving their pedigree.
Fast Fact – Quarterfinal round favorites are 8-16 ATS
Prediction: Play on BYU and Utah for the finals
Sleeper: UNLV
Pac-10
March 11-14 – Los Angeles
Of the tournaments from the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 annually is the least attended. This sort of makes sense, as it is a long trek for fans from the universities of Washington state and Oregon state, especially if it looks like a one and done trip into Los Angeles.
It has been a confusing year trying to figure this league with Washington being the regular season champions. The beauty of what the Huskies did once again proves what can happen with the various dynamics of a squad. Often, there is no way to tell how hard a player will work in the off-season to improve or how a team might come together. It will be intriguing to see how Washington handles the role of the hunted as top-seed.
The results of this tournament have seen the higher seeds cover a 57.4 percent of the time, however that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been plenty of upsets. Since 2002, seven different teams have made the title tilt and Arizona State will have a legitimate opportunity, realistically for the first time. Of course UCLA has to be strongly considered and California, if they can find a way to trick themselves into thinking they are at Berkeley could surprise.
Fast Fact – Top seeds are 6-2 ATS when favored by 10 points or more
Prediction: Play on UCLA and Washington for finals
Sleeper: California
SEC
March 12-15 – Tampa
The SEC has absorbed more shots than a college student on weekend bender. Most analysts agree LSU and Tennessee; the division winners are in the NCAA tournament, however beyond that, the SEC has more bubble teams than a bottle of champagne. South Carolina, Florida and Kentucky have all bludgeoned themselves and to surmise if these teams might do well in the SEC Tournament, this would be like guessing what stocks to buy, if you had any money.
In trying to find teams on the uptick in this conference, the two division winners certainly have to be considered, especially the Vols, who weren’t even in the conversation for the SEC East crown three weeks ago. Another very quiet team hanging around is Auburn. The Tigers have won eight of nine and are 9-0 ATS, suggesting they are treacherous foe and could fly under the radar.
Not sure what the venue change to Tampa is going to do except provide more empty seats televisions producers will try and hide. With the conference really down, LSU and Tennessee losing would be the only real upsets. Of course a fitting final would be last place teams Arkansas and Georgia, based on how the season gone.
Fast Fact – SEC favorites of 6.5 or more points are 20-7 ATS
Prediction: Play on Tennessee and Auburn for the finals.
Sleeper: The whole conference
WAC
March 10-14 – Reno
The Western Athletic Conference was looking a lot like Conference USA until Utah State started to stumble. The Aggies were coasting along at 24-1, nationally ranked and it was all good. The loss at Boise State was not unnerving, but subsequent defeats to St. Mary’s and Nevada have signaled everything is not right for Utah State. For a team to upset the Aggies in the WAC tourney, they must follow the same path others have taken. Defensive intensity to limit Utah State shooting, since when they convert less than 50 percent of attempts, they are far less effective. Additionally, take a page out of their book, take good shots.
Realistically, only Boise State and Nevada seem to have realistic shot to knock Utah State off, with the Wolfpack playing on home floor. Keep a watchful eye on Louisiana Tech since they were 11-5 ATS in league play and 12-6 against the spread as an underdog this season.
Fast Fact – Favorites with revenge are 2-6 ATS
Prediction: Play on Nevada and Utah State for the finals
Sleeper: Boise State
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