Connecticut on Familiar Path in West Regional

Almost two weeks ago when the tournament committee announced Connecticut was headed out West, Huskies fans immediately wondered if fate was setting up for another successful run to the NCAA championship game. After closing the season with two losses to Pittsburgh in the regular season finale and memorable six overtime game with Syracuse in the Big East tournament, a small cloud of doubt was growing larger about Connecticut. Now after three extremely impressive NCAA tournaments wins, talent and fate may be aligned for UConn.

In the 72-60 win over Purdue, Connecticut (30-4, 16-14 ATS) showed its versatility, even when everyone was not having their best game. Forward Jeff Adrien never came close to being a factor; however Stanley Robinson posted a double-double and helped limit the Boilermakers Robbie Hummel with his length.

A.J. Price started slowing for the Huskies, even as they built a significant early lead. Purdue made several runs, but each time senior Craig Austrie made several important baskets, ending up leading his team in scoring with 17 points. Lastly, the nation’s biggest difference-maker, Hasheem Thabeet, added 15 points, snared 15 boards and bothered Purdue countless times and UConn went to 7-1 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season.

Missouri (31-6, 20-10 ATS) has lived up to what the state is known for (Show me state), showing locals and the country the Tigers were much better than advertised. Coach Mike Anderson’s club was picked around seventh in the Big 12 and instead has rolled off a school record 31 victories and reached the Elite Eight for the fourth time in the past 60 years. In upsetting Memphis, the Tigers “out-Memphised” their Tiger counterparts, making steals, running with abandon and taking the mental aspect to them. Just when you thought John Calipari would have Memphis drooling with anxiety to overcome 13-point halftime deficit, Missouri took it 24 points in the second half.

Missouri defensive pressure allows them to rattle good ball-handling teams and they are 16-4 ATS versus clubs committing 14 or less turnovers game this season. An overlooked aspect to the Tigers game is offensive execution. They average 81.6 points per game and led the nation with 18.5 assists per game during the regular season on the way to shooting 47.4 percent, just like Connecticut.

Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets have the Huskies as six-point favorites, with a total of 150. Connecticut has been protecting the ball and is 6-0 ATS after committing 14 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games; however is just 7-21 ATS away from home after a trio of wins by 10 points or more. Missouri is up to 8-2 ATS in neutral court situations and 8-1 against the number if playing with one or less days rest.

Missouri will have to continue to push the ball and marginalize Thabeet’s presence. The Tigers will want to make Connecticut dribblers to break their press and will have to shore up defense in dribble penetration in the halfcourt as they become more fatigued, with Marquette and Memphis having late game success.

Connecticut has to control the glass and make Missouri be one-and-done on offense. Defensively, play assignments and let Thabeet clean up mistakes. The Tigers are superb at driving and kicking out passes for open shots and running off curl screens.

In this round top seeds 19-13 SU, though 12-18 ATS.