Favorites on Collision Course in Midwest?

In downtown Indianapolis, most people there and around the country are expecting a battle of the top two seeds Sunday afternoon. Both Louisville and Michigan State were challenged in the second round and each passed at crunch time to advance. In order for them to hook-up, the Cardinals and Spartans must navigate a treacherous foe that could destroy what many people was an inevitable matchup.

(1) Louisville vs (12) Arizona

Despite being the overall number one seed and holder of a dozen straight wins, coach Rick Pitino saw disturbing trends very similar to what plagued his squad in December. Louisville mastered Morehead State 74-54 as 21.5-point favorites, however led by just two at the half. The Cardinals built significant leads over Siena a couple of times, yet flittered away both and they didn’t put away the Saints until the last few possessions.

Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels have been like the stock market in recent weeks, up one day and down the next. Only Terrence Williams has been consistent and he has been brilliant in leading his team. Preston Knowles and Andre McGee must do a better job shooting the ball, not settling for three-point shots like they did in the first two games. This pair has to be more aggressive in getting to the basket, which could open up teammates for better shots. Louisville (30-5, 21-14 ATS) has to be prepared to start fast and is 21-10 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

If the Cards take their time, they could be chasing Arizona (21-13, 19-14-1 ATS) all day. The Wildcats have three exceptionally talented players and this trio has started fast in both victories. Guard Nic Wise and pushed the ball at every opportunity, Chase Budinger has made long shots as expected, but has attacked the rim like LeBron James with big-time flushes that have kept his teammates fired up. Center Jordan Hill has picked his spots, scoring when called upon and having a number of nice assists.

Arizona is playing with a real hunger and being the 12th seed is just having fun. Betjamica.com has the ‘Cats on the receiving end of nine-points, with the total having risen to 139. They are 22-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game.

Should Louisville be trusted, history suggests maybe, as favorites of seven or more points are 29-1 SU with .500 spread record in the round of Sweet 16. A 12th seed has never beaten a No.1 in 15 prior meetings and is 6-9 ATS.

(2) Kansas vs (2) Michigan State

This Midwestern matchup is a revenge game for Kansas, who lost to Michigan State 75-62 as 6.5-point road underdogs on January 10. The Jayhawks (27-7, 20-8-1 ATS) have grown as the young players matured and become more reliable. The two rocks have to be guard Sherron Collins and center Cole Aldrich. The Kansas point guard can get hotter than soup left in the microwave too long and blister opposing teams. His stocky build allows him to get to the rim the same as a much taller player. Aldrich continually works on all aspects of his game and is going to make a very nice living at the next level.

Bill Self’s club has been able to stay under the radar all season, with oddsmakers never quite figuring them out. They have won and covered both games in the tournament; including demolishing Dayton 60-43 and they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.
With Kansas a much better team than what Michigan State (28-6, 17-13-1 ATS) saw previously, the Spartans are different also. Kalin Lucas was just hitting his stride and improved dramatically to be named Big Ten player of the year. Goran Suton was still rounding into form from injury and though he had a poor shooting game against USC, he was a huge part in the Trojans Taj Gibson being a non-factor in last contest. Raymar Morgan isn’t all the way back from mono, however more glimpses are shown each game of him coming back for a Spartans team that is 12-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last two seasons.

This 2 vs 3 contest opened as a Pick, with bettors making Michigan State a 1.5-point favorite. Two seeds are 19-9 in these matchups, covering 16 times. Michigan State is 28-3 and 15-12-1 ATS when winning the battle on the glass, and if they neutralize Aldrich, the Spartans should be great position to triumph.

Don’t look for this to be a white elephant, with two very well coached teams.