Underdogs Bring Right Stuff for West Regional

Connecticut and Memphis were devastating in three of the four of their games in the opening two rounds. The Huskies toyed with Chattanooga and Texas A&M, which led many to wonder how good would UConn be right today if Jerome Dyson was available. Memphis lolly-gagged with CS-Northridge in the opener, but came with a purpose and mauled Maryland 89-70 in a game that wasn’t that close. If these two top seeds are really on a collision course, they will have to match wits with teams that have many of the right aspects to take down the higher seeds.

Connecticut (29-4, 15-14 ATS) was believed to be the second best team in the country back in early November and they have done very little to change that opinion. Jim Calhoun’s bunch isn’t always the best team to wager on, however have a steady 8-2 ATS away from home record off two games as a favorite. In their losses to Georgetown, Pittsburgh (2) and Syracuse, the theme is consistent. You have to attack Hasheem Thabeet, trying to get him in foul trouble, score in the paint and make outside shots.

This isn’t designing a new way to play basketball, however it is how you beat the Huskies. Center JaJaun Johnson of Purdue (27-9, 16-17 ATS) has the size to go at Thabeet and runs the floor as well as any big man in college basketball. Johnson has been a threat in running the secondary break, scoring on a number of thunderous dunks. He’ll try to make the Connecticut center pick up quick fouls, which opens up the lane. The Boilermakers fought injuries most of the year, but the return of Robbie Hummel placed everyone back in normal spots. Hummel can shoot deep or drive to the cup, creating more options for guards E'Twaun Moore and Chris Kramer.

Connecticut has very few fouls called on them and Purdue has not been bothered by teams like this in the past with 26-14 ATS record versus clubs who are called for 17 or less fouls a game. The Boilers are receiving 6.5-points as underdogs, with a total of 134.5. The Huskies are 3-13 ATS in road games after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more, while Matt Painter’s troops are 17-5 ATS after being an underdog.

In the round of 16, favorites of six points or more are 28-2 SU covering 60 percent of the time.
A question was raised by Digger Phelps the night the brackets were announced and he made mention of Missouri (30-6, 19-10 ATS) being a threat to Memphis (33-3, 22-12-1 ATS), since pressing teams don’t like to face pressing teams. The first thought was wouldn’t the same be true of Missouri taking on the Memphis press?

In this battle of Tigers, Missouri has to overcome the moment. This is Memphis’ fourth straight Sweet 16, which includes three Elite 8’s and a national championship appearance. Missouri’s task is to keep poise and not be fearful of 8-0 run, since they are equally as capable of returning the favor. Misso’s job on defense is to limit Tyreke Evans dribble penetration on offense. The Northridge zone stifled him, look for change-up defenses from coach Mike Anderson. Missouri has won and covered five in a row and showed gumption in holding on to defeat Marquette.

On offense, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons might have more opportunities than they thought after watching film. The two Memphis tourney opponents shot 44.4 and 43.5 percent; hardly intimidating figures and both opponents took it right to the rim when they had numbers, which is Missouri’s style.

Memphis coach John Calipari likes to sell himself off as the Al Bundy of college basketball, falling into situations as much as making them happen. To his credit, he spreads the praise around and seniors Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier have 13 NCAA tournament wins in their four years. What this Tigers team has shown is the ability to do is go for the throat. If they are mentally ready, Memphis will start fast and once they see the opening to finish, they close better than a top-notch Lexus salesperson.

The Tigers from Tennessee are 4.5-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com and teams favored by less than six points in the Sweet 16 only cover about a third of the time.