Value Plays from System in NCAA Tourney

With the March Madness now upon us, it is time to prepare your self for the first round of hoops wagering action. With half the tournament played out in the first two days, you are presented with your best opportunity to profit significantly. Many people have different ways they use to select winners; here is another method I’ve used that has allowed me to win 13 times in the last 16 years in the first round.

What I have done for years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played through February 15. This is the center piece of future action. Once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action.

Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago versus what they are now that they are goin’ dancin’. Take their previous position in their league standings and once again compare them to what they were when the regular season ended. Lastly, we want to know where they finished in their conference tourney. Let me show you what this should look like:

Purdue 19-5 25-9 6-3 3rd 2nd 1st
No. Iowa 18-8 23-10 5-2 1st 1st 1st

In the example, both teams played pretty well in the last month of the season. Because of how the Big Ten played out at the end of the year, Purdue moved up one spot in the conference standings during the regular season and played very well in winning conference tournament. Northern Iowa was a persistent performer, finishing first in all categories as Missouri Valley Conference champions.

Moving on, what we are seeking is potential value with underdogs that can cover spreads and win outright. If two teams have played well to close the season like North Carolina (5-2) and Radford (6-1), this would not qualify as a play. The same would be true if they were ordinary to close the season. Texas (5-4) and Minnesota (3-4) would fit this criterion. What were searching for are contrasts, one team on uptick and the other apparently fading.

Here is an example of the type of situation we are looking for:

Utah 18-7 24-9 6-2 1st 1st 1st
Arizona 18-8 19-13 1-5 5th 6th Lost Quarters

Utah was unchanging in playing in a descent league, staying the course and finishing first in all three categories, including playing well to close the year. Arizona despite having three potential NBA players was extremely unimpressive to finish the year. Many in the media like Arizona because of their talent, which is a legitimate argument; however if a team is not playing well against one that is, you have to at the very least take that into consideration.

Another winning situation involving this method would be a mid-major conference team and a school from a large conference.

Marquette 21-4 24-9 3-5 2nd 5th Lost Quarters
Utah State 24-2 30-4 6-2 1st 1st 1st

The Golden Eagles lost one of their main components in Dominic James, when he broke a bone in his foot. Though Marquette has gamely played on, they are not the same team without their point guard and not enough scoring or defensive pressure has been forthcoming off the bench. Utah State is out of the WAC and works diligently to take good shots, accounting for 49.8 percent mark from the field and 39.8 percent from behind the arc. The Aggies have held opposing teams to 62.1 points per game on the season and could have a chance to pull the upset.

In my sixteen years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, one being last year. What caused last year’s failure was the lack of upsets, which was later bore out as all the top seeds went to the Final Four since the field was changed to 64.

My belief is that will change this year, when examining history, Memphis is the only team with a minimum of three losses. The last time this many tournament teams had as many losses in the higher seeds was exactly 70 years ago, 1939.

Without further ado, here are the teams that could be spread winners in the first round based on this system. – Utah, Utah State, Western Kentucky, Temple, Morgan State and USC. (Note- Alabama State technically qualifies, but leery about play-in game).