Wagering on NCAA Tournament Champion

The field of 65 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about home run wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.

Even with the large field, most years, around 10 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last 11 years, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.

Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in their own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.

Last year I wrote about Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, having a process to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has worked in the NBA as a scout and been an assistant coach for several teams on the college level. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ and I worked his method last season for the first time and two of the three teams were Kansas and Memphis, who played for the national championship last season.

Here is his list and what has occurred.

• 8 of 8 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
• 19 of 21 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
• 20 of 21 past champions had NBA guard
• 8 of 11 past champions won conference tournament

It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 23 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule their way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.

Number of consecutive wins:

23 – Memphis

19- Utah State

16 – Wake Forest, Clemson, Pittsburgh

13- North Carolina, Oklahoma, Connecticut, American

12- Marquette, Minnesota, Butler

11- Michigan State, Northern Iowa, Tenn.-Martin, Xavier, North Dakota State, Binghamton

10- Duke, Louisville, LSU, BYU, Texas A&M

Absent from this list are such notable teams like Gonzaga (two nine-game streaks), Washington and Missouri, all teams that would be in the discussion as many as the teams on this list for strong consideration as top quality clubs.

The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.

Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.

In reviewing above list, Memphis has frontcourt players Shawn Taggert and Robert Dozier, who are both tall long athletes, who will be on somebody’s NBA roster when they leave. Guards Antonio Anderson and Tyreke Evans have shown to be special players and will be paid as professionals before long.

Utah State has an exceptional player in Gary Wilkenson, who was the Western Athletic Conference play of the year; however he is 26 years old and has limited options at the next level.
Wake Forest might have as much next level talent as any team in the country, but it is awfully young. Sophomore Jeff Teague is top scoring threat and is good facilitator of the ball. Freshman Al-Farouq Amino has unreal ability and just needs more seasoning and to work on outside game. Second year player James Johnson is inside-outside threat and 7’0 junior Chas McFarland has improved each year in school and could catch on with NBA team when he graduates.

Clemson has high motor guy in Raymond Sykes, who has the size and strength for NBA, however has shooting limitations. K.C. Rivers and Trevor Booker don’t have the right amount quickness that converts to the NBA.

Pittsburgh has DuJuan Blair and Sam Young, who should both be drafted for the NBA, but no guards on the Panthers squad are ready to make a move. Though Tyler Hansbrough supposedly doesn’t meet the criteria to play in the NBA, he has the look of a high energy seventh or eighth man, who will do whatever it takes to improve. The rest of the North Carolina contingent is questionable with Wayne Ellington and Danny Green and if Ty Lawson wasn’t 5’11. he would be big time prospect.

Connecticut has a boatload of talented players. A.J. Price should stick with some team and Jeff Adrien already has NBA-body. Stanley Robinson would make a nice project for a team with patience to let him grow and Hasheem Thabeet is already on his way, once he decides to go. Oklahoma of course has Blake Griffin and guard Willie Warren, both top level talents that would make any team an instant contender.

Michigan State has Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers, who have potential as sophomores, but Raymar Morgan is more unknown as a 6’8 forward. Marquette’s Jerel McNeal has improved each season, but nothing even close in the frontcourt. BYU has guard Lee Cummard, who may lack the quickness, but is very good shooter. LSU has the right combination in principle anyways, with Marcus Thornton at guard and Tazmin Mitchell at forward. I’ll cut Mitchell a little slack since his body type is bigger than listed 6’7 height.

Louisville’s Earl Clark and Terrance Williams will very likely be better pros than they were in college, with coach Rick Pitino demanding more team effort. Duke has Gerald Henderson who should stick, however Kyle Singler doesn’t count as 6’8 player, since he is more of two guard or swingman when he is drafted.

The rest of the teams have primarily very good college players, but most are undersized or lack a particular quality that would prevent them from being able to earn a NBA paycheck.

Moving on, 72.7 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last 11 years won their conference tournament. Last year, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won their post-season tournaments. This season only nine of the 21 teams with long winning streaks won their conferences tournaments and just three from the bigger conferences, if you include Conference-USA.

A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg.

The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are only two teams that stand above the rest. They are Louisville and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament.

Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.