Betting ACC football looks like coin flip

Let’s start with the facts, the ACC generously speaking, is lousy. Not in all sports, as North Carolina has done a great job holding up the league’s reputation in college basketball and the conference sent two teams to the College World Series in baseball this past summer. No, were just talking football.

In 2004, the Atlantic Coast Conference university presidents saw the money the SEC and the Big 12 were making holding a conference championship game in football and the interest and buzz it created nationally. Not afraid to throw around a little cash, along with promises, the ACC raided the Big East and took their three strongest football programs (all for the sake of higher learning of course) and rebuilt a the league into a dozen teams. Miami and Virginia Tech joined in 2004 and Boston College followed a year later. A new “super” conference was born, right?

Well not exactly. Along the way a few stumbling blocks occurred. While the Big East additions were supposed to enhance competition, they weren’t supposed to dominate. Of the four ACC title games played so far, five representatives have been from the Big East, lead by Virginia Tech three times. In fairness, things do move a little slower in the South. When Florida State joined the ACC, they won their first 29 conference contests and 47 of 48.

Because of the success the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed, speculation has been written and discussed about adding them to the BCS (oh that will happen) or possibly dropping a weaker league and adding the MWC to the mix. (Not likely)

If for example that were to occur how does the ACC standup?

Since reshuffling the deck in 2004-05, the ACC is 134-96, 58.2 percent straight up against D-1 or FBS teams in non-conference games. That’s just below average compared to the other five BCS conferences and the Mountain West. For the sports bettor, the ACC isn’t an acceptable wager with a record of 109-119-2 against the spread in those encounters. That’s 52.2 percent on the losing side of wagers, not including adding the vig.

The news is even worse when you consider over the last three years and the beginning of this season these 12 teams win only 44 percent of the time against the aforementioned other conferences.

What is the problem with the ACC, it’s actually two-fold. First, the school presidents fully expected adding three new teams and a little magic dust and suddenly it’s the SEC. The ACC is a basketball conference. Most schools are willing to pay decent money to coach players in short pants, but haven’t shown that same willingness on the gridiron.

This leads to the quality of coaches in charge of these programs. Bobby Bowden is not the same as he was 10 to 20 years ago. Frank Beamer is still elite head coach, however after, not much Hall of Fame material. Tom O’Brien, Jim Grobe, Butch Davis and Paul Johnson all fit in the “good” category with Johnson the most likely to reach greater heights. Veteran coaches like Al Groh and David Cutcliffe will get the most out of what they can recruit by academic standards at Virginia and Duke and Ralph Freidgen wins enough to keep the alumni off his back. At this point Randy Shannon, Frank Spaziani and Dabo Swinney all have incomplete grades and none were costly hires.

With the ACC about to really delve into league play what should the sports bettor expect in balanced league lacking true star power?

The game of football has evolved to where so much importance is placed on the quarterback. The two best veteran quarterbacks are Riley Skinner at Wake Forest and Thaddeus Lewis at Duke, however neither will be making a living at that position once their eligibility is completed. The league’s future might be in its youthful signal callers, with the likes of Jacory Harris at Miami, Russell Wilson at N.C. State and Christian Ponder at Florida State. Each has the skill to be complete player and should only get better with proper work ethic and talent around them. Tyrod Taylor and Josh Nesbitt are both exciting players who are mostly one-dimensional players. The truth is the league reflects the quarterback play at this time, rather generic and predicated on youth without the infrastructure to protect on off days.

In breaking down conference play over the last five seasons it’s about as expected. Virginia Tech is 34-9 and 29-14 ATS when ACC title games are counted. Florida State is 24-17 and 17-24 ATS, being overvalued in many cases and Georgia Tech is 25-17, but only 20-22 ATS with no distinguishing attributes.

The Wolfpack at N.C. State is 17-23 and .500 against the spread. We’ll have to watch if they can continue 4-0 ATS home underdog mark from last season. Boston College is 21-14 and 17-18 ATS and actually has a better SU record in there four years in the ACC compared to the previous last four years in the supposed weaker Big East.

The next three teams are long time members stuck in neutral. North Carolina is 18-22 and 20-20 ATS and Maryland is very similar at 18-22 SU & ATS. Clemson is 23-18 and 19-22 ATS and is a much better home dog than home favorite in ACC action.

Wake Forest is 20-21 SU & ATS and is dastardly 3-8 ATS as away favorite the last decade. Miami is 22-20 and 18-24 ATS in league play, sporting 4-11 ATS record in home games. Virginia is positive 21-19 and 22-18 ATS, being a solid wager at home and wobbly road team. The Dukies are ghastly 2-38 (its true), however is frequently overlooked as doormat of the ACC and is 19-21 against the oddsmakers.

It would be a pleasure to suggest a certain style of wagering in the ACC, like playing all underdogs, however the facts don’t support it. Instead, like the many roads that go thru the Carolina’s, follow the yellow signs with the wiggly picture. SLOW – Proceed with Caution.