All Favre all the Time

In case you haven’t heard, President Obama has made this Monday national “Brett Favre Day”, as a way to celebrate the future Hall of Famer and everyone can quit their jobs, only to return the next day since they had a change of heart and time to think about. Make no mistake; while Green Bay and Minnesota is a heated rivalry known primarily in the Upper Midwest, it takes on a national meaning this Monday Night.

Like the graphic ESPN showed Saturday night, can you imagine Derek Jeter in Boston uniform, Larry Bird playing for the Lakers or for longtime college football fans, what about Woody Hayes wearing a blue and maize tie with a Michigan hat. Some things in life aren’t supposed to be yet, Joe Montana wore a Kansas City uniform and Emmett Smith played in Arizona before calling it quits.

The game everyone has been waiting for has taken on added significance because of its importance in the NFC North race. The Packers (2-1 SU &ATS) and Vikings (2-1 ATS) will be playing for more than just Brett Favre, when they get together on Monday. The Vikings are 3-0, thanks in large part to Favre’s last second heroics last week against San Francisco. They have won five straight games as divisional hosts but are 2-3 ATS in that span. Minnesota trails in the all time series 49-45-1, having lost five of last six, but is 19-8 ATS in home games after a win by six or less points.

Since the day Aaron Rodgers fell on draft day to the Green Bay Packers, his professional career has had a peculiar path, through no fault of his own. The next chapter is written tonight and he would love nothing better than to be the star that leads the Packers to victory in this arresting contest. Unfortunately, Rodgers has had to have more moves that a salsa dancer, since the best blocking scheme the Green Bay offensive line has come up with is the “look out” block, with Rodgers sacked 12 times already. The Packers are 17-7 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy and 14-5 ATS in divisional games.

The wagering public has been hitting Minnesota hard, moving them from three-point favorites to 4.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total at 45.5. Minnesota is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at the MetroDome. This head-to-head series has seen some significant trends, particularly the games in Minnesota, where dogs are on a 13-3 ATS run, and the OVER is 6-1.

Green Bay covers if their run defense holds up. The Packers are allowing a respectable 3.9 yards per carry; however teams have shown no fear in taking them on, averaging 33 attempts. This means keeping Adrian Peterson in check, no easy task. The offensive line has to perform. For all the talk over the last few years about the Vikings run defense, Mike McCarthy’s schemes have worked pretty well. Keep Rodgers from getting rug burns and attack Minnesota secondary with three and four receiver sets. The Vikes are notorious for weak special teams, win the “under the radar” stat decidedly to put offense in better scoring positions.

Minnesota covers if they do what everyone else has done to Packers O-line, abuse them. Jered Allen probably hasn’t slept all week thinking about how many times he could sack Rodgers. Green Bay’s run game isn’t strong enough to offset their lack of ability to move the chains without the pass. One word said three times- Attack, Attack, Attack. The Vikings have gained 407 yards rushing in last two games against the Pack, why shouldn’t they do it again, especially if Favre can put them in right play against run blitzes. Feed Peterson like a hungry tiger. The pass rush isn’t going to get Rodgers every time, the secondary has to make sure they stick with Packers’ receivers, as Rodgers is well-respected for ability to throw deep accurately.

This will be a spectacle.

Monday Night System – Play On a division favorite of a touchdown or less that has won two straight games. (26-9 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.