NLDS Series Preview

The pressure, the intensity and the drama all ratchet up in the Major Leagues with post-season baseball. The National League picture has really changed in the last 45 days. The Los Angeles Dodgers were thought to be a lock to win the National League West, when they seemingly lost interest. From August 28 on, the Dodgers only played nine of last 34 games against teams with winning records and yet didn’t clinch NL West crown until the next to last day of the regular season. In fact, Los Angeles had six straight days to wrap up the division and lost five in a row before finally defeating Colorado this past Saturday. The Dodgers were less than inspiring 19-14 against the below average competition to finish the regular season and are +123 underdogs despite home field advantage.

How could that be one might wonder, it’s because they are playing St. Louis. Most baseball experts are saying forget the fact they lost six of last seven games, that was just a team setting up rotation and preparing for the playoffs. No team in baseball was more aggressive before the trade deadline in adding quality players to their roster. Matt Holliday was really the most important acquisition, as he brought a potent bat to help Albert Pujols batting cleanup. From July 24 until Sept.22, St. Louis was baseball best 37-17.

The Cardinals appear to also have two distinct advantages in this series, superior starting pitching and better bullpen. Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA) would have two starts in this series if it goes the distance. Carpenter led the National League with the lowest ERA and he’s been ridiculous of late with sick 0.45 earned run average in his last three starts. Adam Wainwright (19-4) was fourth in ERA at 2.63. Only once in 18 times did Carpenter and Wainwright lose back to back games and that hasn’t happened in over three months.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Dodgers 4th St. Louis 7th
Home Runs Dodgers 11th St. Louis 6th
Slugging Ptc. Dodgers 7th St. Louis 6th
Walks Dodgers 4th St. Louis 12th
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st St. Louis 10th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Dodgers 1st St. Louis 4th
Bullpen ERA Dodgers 1st St. Louis 4th
Strikeouts Dodgers 2nd St. Louis 14th
Walks Dodgers 8th St. Louis 1st
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st St. Louis 3rd
Putouts Dodgers 1st St. Louis 10th
Errors Dodgers 4th St. Louis 9th

Key Numbers- The Cardinals have won five of seven this season and is 5-4 at Dodger Stadium the last three years. With the Dodgers having to face two stud pitchers in the first two games, note they are 8-16 vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Cardinals -150, Dodgers +130

In the other NLDS, it is more old-school traditional baseball. The defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies have ability to score runs by the bushel-full and have strong starting pitching. The Phillies topped the National League in runs scored at 5.1 per game, which was just ahead of second place Colorado at 5.0. Need a game changing home run, look no further than these two clubs with Philly going yard 224 times (1st in NL) and Rocks batters sending the ball over the fence 190 times (2nd).

No team can live on hitting alone and Colorado had five different starting pitchers win 10 games or more, led by Jorge DeLa Rosa 16 wins. The Phillies have Cole Hamels who pitched much better the last two months than the first four and knows what it takes in the postseason. The addition of Cliff Lee gave the Phillies a wonderful a chance to win every fifth day and placed Joe Blanton in better position as a solid starter.

Both lineups have the ability to explode at any time, which sets up the potential for a great deal of second guessing by the managers in this series when it comes to making pitching changes. When has a starter had enough or can he work out of jams?

This leads to the late inning bullpen situations for both teams. Closer Brad Lidge was given every opportunity to succeed by manager Charley Manuel and he failed. Ryan Madison is now the closer, but his mental makeup is unproven in this pressure packed role. Huston Street has only allowed runs once in his last 10 appearances, yet nobody is convinced he’s Mariano Rivera material.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Home Runs Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Slugging Ptc. Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Walks Colorado 1st Philadelphia 7th
On base Ptc. Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 8th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Colorado 7th Philadelphia 5th
Bullpen ERA Colorado 13th Philadelphia 9th
Strikeouts Colorado 8th Philadelphia 9th
Walks Colorado 4th Philadelphia 2nd
On base Ptc. Colorado 6th Philadelphia 7th
Putouts Colorado 12th Philadelphia 4th
Errors Colorado 5th Philadelphia 2nd

Key Numbers- Philadelphia won four of six meetings this year and tied for the best record in baseball on the road at 48-33. Colorado’s mission is to earn split and return home where they had the second best record in the senior circuit on home turf with 51-30 record. The Rockies are only 6-18 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, while the Phillies are 17-7 when facing the same kind of offense.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Phillies -170, Rockies +145