Carolina at Miami Matchup

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown now officially listed as done for the season. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.