This week starts the second half of the season and already certain teams have games that could send their year one way or another. Currently, .500 teams Jacksonville and the Jets have seven teams ahead of them in the AFC, which means the loser of this contest could have dicey situation making the playoffs. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh, but key injuries are mounting, an upset effort keeps mojo moving forward. Carolina played well at New Orleans, but a loss to Atlanta makes them 3-6, looking at 6-1 finish for playoff redemption. Both Philadelphia and San Diego are chasing division leaders and will want to keep pace, however somebody loses. Green Bay’s season starting to go the way of Richard Heene (Balloon Dad) and needs upset of Dallas to turn year around.Jacksonville at New York Jets 1:00E CBS
The Jets last played two weeks ago and held the Dolphins to just 104 yards of total offense. That incredible defensive performance is little consolation to head coach Rex Ryan however, as his team lost 30-25, to fall back to 4-4. During the bye week, Ryan described his feeling as “sick” about the first half, figuring his team was better suited for 6-2. As a result, he gave his players six days off to rest up for this contest with Jacksonville. New York (4-4 ATS) has done well coming out of the bye, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games. They are also 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1997. However, the Jaguars (3-5 ATS) have the edge in the recent matchups, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is also 4-4 after beating Kansas City.
Keys to the Game-
Jacksonville went back to 4-3 defense after Tennessee racked up 305 yards on the ground against 3-4 scheme. This becomes important now, since the Jets lead the NFL in rushing at 177.6 yards per game. This is huge key on the road, since that means Mark Sanchez would have to beat them with the pass. Sanchez has coughed up eight fumbles, thus applying pressure and getting him rattled is tantamount. The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as underdog vs. opponent off a favorite loss and David Garrard has to make wise choices against talented New York secondary and cannot become incogitant.
Coach Ryan hopes the extra week helped clear Sanchez’s boggled brain and he returns as sharp as he started the year. The former USC star should benefit of not seeing extreme pressure, as the Jags are dead last in the NFL in sacks with eight. The defense’s top priority is containing Maurice Jones-Drew, who has more moves than a street dancer. Keep Mr. Hyphen in check and attack Garrard, who like Sanchez will leave the pigskin on the field. The Flyboys are 13-2 ATS at the Meadowlands off a home loss.
3DWLine – Jets by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Jets -7, 41
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS
The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of 2009 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh (6-2, 5-3 ATS), who had gone 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since 1992. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a three-point underdog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Bengals (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast 12-2 ATS record after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half under Marvin Lewis.
Keys to the Game-
Cincinnati lost receiver Chris Henry who was important cog in Bengals passing game. This places greater emphasis in RB Cedric Benson who is quickly becoming a complete back with ability to do everything. The Bengals are tied for seventh is sacks at 21 and the D-Line has to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger, while maintaining lane control so he doesn’t leave the pocket. It’s a misconception at the moment that the Steelers are punishing offense. Their passing game ranks 5th, with the running game a pedestrian 15th. Cincy should play Cover 3 defense and have secondary break on balls instead of outside man-up coverage. An upset allows Bengals time to find replacements for injured and gains what amounts to two-game lead in division. Cincy is on 7-0 ATS run as dog.
Pittsburgh has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games including the playoffs, no reason to figure they’ll concede one in this spot. Lock up Benson and don’t let him matter in the passing game. The Steelers defense was not clicking in Week 3 defeat to Bengals, it is now. Attack Carson Palmer, who just lost short-crossing route companion Henry, make him look elsewhere, with potential miscues to follow. Pitt is 30-11 ATS playing against teams with .750 or higher win percentage and will want to establish Rashard Mendenhall, whose 5.7 yards per carry in last five games is second only to Titans Chris Johnson (6.7).
3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -7, 41.5
Atlanta at Carolina 1:00E FOX
With New Orleans running away from the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta and Carolina have had to readjust their goals for 2009. The Falcons (6-2 ATS) are still in the wild card picture at 5-3, but face a difficult two-game road swing starting with this matchup. Carolina is 3-5 after losing to the Saints, but has a second half schedule loaded with five home games. That may or may not be of benefit, as the Panthers (3-5 ATS) have yet to cover a spread at home, with 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS record. This will be Carolina’s first divisional home game of 2009, after going 3-0 ATS in that scenario a year ago. This will be a revenge spot for the Panthers and they are 20-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Including 28-20 win in Week 2, Atlanta holds a 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS edge vs. Carolina since 1998.
Keys to the Game-
This division conflict also matters to Atlanta a great deal, as with a win they are no worse than top NFC wild card team moving forward. Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career. He’s had two games passing under 175 yards in last three and the other one he completed less than 50 percent of attempts. His team needs him particularly on the division road. The Carolina running has found its stride the last several weeks and the Birds are 26th against the run. The defensive line has to create penetration, with linebackers staying clean to make tackles. RB Michael Turner has regained his form with 317 yards rushing in last two games. Keep him busy and the turf-playing Falcons fly to 15-6 ATS on real grass.
Coach John Fox, time to geek it up. It mattered when Jake Delhomme threw four picks against Philadelphia in opener. This team is in serious need of attitude adjustment. Playing conservative and losing is worse than going all out to get the ball to Steve Smith 10 or more times. The running game will be even more dangerous if Atlanta understands you will throw the ball down the field to Smith and others. On defense, run more games up front; force your players to give more (they can) and go after Falcons with passion, something missing all season. The Panthers 20-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, make it happen.
3DW Line – Atlanta by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -1.5, 43.5
Philadelphia at San Diego 4:15E FOX
One week after getting help from San Diego, the Eagles face the Chargers, some 3000 miles across the country. Philadelphia (5-3 ATS) wasn’t able to fully capitalize on the Giants falling, losing to Dallas and surrendering the NFC East lead. Now, at 5-3, the schedule really turns on HC Andy Reid’s team, with four road games in the next five weeks, all against playoff contending teams. Fortunately, Philly is 33-15 ATS as a road underdog under Reid, and 30-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams gaining 350 yards per game or more. This will be Reid’s first ever trip to San Diego with the Eagles. The Chargers (3-5 ATS) are also 5-3 after last week’s one-point win in New York, and face another date with Denver following this tilt. Under Norv Turner, they are 3-6 ATS vs. the NFC, 2-2 SU and ATS at home.
Keys to the Game –
For coach Reid’s presumed genius on offense, he’s had a couple stinky showings this season. Last week, he earned F’s in trying to get the ball to his most threatening weapon DeSean Jackson, who had two catches for 29 yards. Run receiver screens, put him motion, just finds ways for Jackson to touch the ball, he’s a quick six waiting to happen. The San Diego run defense has improved the last month, however is still 26th overall. Test the middle with running game. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, in part due to fast starts. This is a team with deficiencies in tight games (1-8-1 SU in their past 10 games decided by seven points or less, 1-9 ATS) and has to score early and keep adding.
It is not a coincidence that the improved health of Shawne Merriman has helped the defense. In their last four games, the San Diego defense has surrendered 144.5 yards per game via the pass (Oakland helped a great deal), best in the NFL, jumping them to fourth overall. That matter against Philadelphia since the Chargers are stellar at the corners and improving at safety and they have benefitted with increased pressure on opposing QB’s. This game is worth viewing just because the Eagles bring continual blitzes and Philip Rivers throws the deepest routes in the league. Who wins this battle could decide winner. Bolts feed on emotion and are 12-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2007.
3DWLine – Philadelphia by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -1, 47
Dallas at Green Bay 4:15E FOX
When Brett Favre was with the Packers, they struggled vs. the Cowboys in Dallas. At home though, it was a much different story. In fact, in the overall series, home teams owned a 9-0 SU and ATS edge from 1994 to 2007. Still, the home opportunities were few and far between for Green Bay. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the 4-4 SU and ATS Packers will be looking to avenge a loss when they host Dallas for the second straight year. The Cowboys (5-3 ATS) won the 2008 game, 27-16, manhandling the Packers defensive front for 217 yards rushing. They are atop the NFC East at 6-2 after winning at Philly. Green Bay is 2-4 vs. NFC East foes under Mike McCarthy, while the Cowboys are 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Ten of the last 12 overall meetings between these teams went OVER the total.
Keys to the Game-
If Dallas can win first down on defense, they are on their way to seventh win of the season. The Green Bay offensive line can’t protect Rodgers and second year starter hangs on to the ball like it’s a good luck charm. The Green Bay run defense is ninth (91.1 YPG), but it is better when teams try to run wide. Pound away at the middle with Marion Barber, than work him and others outside. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS as favorites and they will improve that record if they do better than .500 on possessions inside the red zone that leads to touchdowns and not field goals.
Barber is still recovering from quad injury and has lacked burst. Green Bay’s defense has to make him take a step east or west to reduce his effectiveness. Rodgers has to use his University of California education and start being smarter in releasing the ball quicker. The Dallas defense doesn’t like being on the field, throw underneath stuff to move the chains and utilize Ryan Grant in the one-cut and drive running game. The Pack is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season. They have two winnable games after this and will have extended rest before Monday home game against Baltimore. A win vs. Dallas could start three-game winning and who knows.
3DW Line – Dallas by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 47.5
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
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