Pats at Colts - Special Contest

A few weeks ago, Week 10’s Sunday night matchup pitting Tom Brady against Peyton Manning appeared to be another in a strong line of games with intriguing storylines for the NBC crew. Continuous injuries to the Indianapolis defense, however, give Brady and New England an advantage when they take the field at the RCA Dome.

The rivalry of the decade resumes in Indianapolis with the stakes high once again, as both teams are off to fast starts and considered top contenders for the AFC title. It wouldn’t be a shock if they meet again in January with a bigger prize on the line.

Running a close second to Manning in terms of earning the Colts 2009 MVP award, is the training staff, as it ranks as one of the most overworked in the NFL. On top of the normal sprains and nagging injuries that have already shelved running back Donald Brown (shoulder) and cornerback Kelvin Hayden (knee), Manning has watched six members of the defense go down for the year. Added to the list, prior to a 20-17 win over Houston last week, were cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee), linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (biceps) and most importantly, the heart and soul of the defense, safety Bob Sanders (elbow). The Colts (5-3 ATS) remains perfect at 8-0, but are just 1-3 ATS at home in 2009, and are 4-10 ATS in its previous testsas host overall.

Brady must be completely healed as he and his offensive teammates beat up on Tennessee and Tampa Bay before their bye week for a combined 688 yards and nine touchdowns. He then torched Miami’s secondary for 332 more yards, including a 71-yard scoring strike to Randy Moss in a 27-17 non-cover victory last Sunday.

It has been a thrilling head-to-head series since Bill Belichick arrived in New England in 2000. There have really been two different eras in the series, with the Patriots winning six straight games between 2001-04, and the Colts having since turned the tide, with about face record of 4-1 SU and ATS in last five confrontations.

In terms of raw numbers, Manning has enjoyed considerable success against New England during his career. But if there’s one player that casts a shadow even bigger than that of Manning, the multimedia superhero, Brady is it. The three-time Super Bowl winner owns two more titles than Manning. Four straight battles between the teams have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, including last season’s 18-15 decision taken by the Colts as six point favorites. The Matt Cassel-led Patriots managed just one touchdown and three field goals.

Line – Indianapolis -2.5 (Courtesy of Sportsbook.com)
Total – 48.5

Team Trends
The Patriots are 13-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after eight or more games on the season.
The Patriots are 2-10 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in two straight games.
The Colts are 17-6 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season.
The Colts are 2-10 ATS in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in consecutive contests.

Team Totals
The Patriots are 6-0 UNDER in road games off a home win since last year.
The Colts are 13-3 UNDER in home games after six or more consecutive wins.

Sunday Night Trends
The Patriots are 12-16-1 ATS and 5-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
The Colts are 16-18 ATS and 4-8 ATS as home favorites.
Home teams are 4-18 ATS when both teams are off a SU win.

Expert Opinion – Steve Makinen

This game reminds me a lot of last Sunday night’s feature contest between the Eagles and Cowboys. Philly was playing well and was at home, but yet, oddsmakers had no qualms about keeping the line on the 3-mark throughout the entire week. Bettors sided with the Eagles and lost. Here, the Colts are facing their own old nemesis, the Patriots, and have some injury and home performance woes of their own to deal with. Indy has only covered one of its four games at home, and is just 4-10 ATS in its L14 as host. The Patriots meanwhile are getting better and better as the year rolls on and are a legitimate threat to leave just one team unbeaten. Trends like this underscore what role the coaching difference might play in this game: Bill Belichick is 18-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging six or more yards/play as the coach of New England. Take the points with New England.

Game Preview by College and Pro Football Newsweekly and Steve Makinen of StatFox.