Knowing Football Numbers Builds Bankrolls

Remember just a couple of weeks ago, when the sportsbooks where whining like adult babies about all the favorites winning and they were suffering heavy losses, well they were strangely quiet after this weekend and for good reason. The books cleaned up as NFL favorites were 3-10 against the spread. They reaped the benefits of Green Bay losing outright to Tampa Bay, helping them take in a great deal of teaser money. The San Diego Chargers come from behind victory was also a boom, as heavy betting by Giants fans figuring their team couldn’t lose four in a row, was flushed away. NFL favorites are 28-38-1 ATS the last five weeks.

This helps set up a very interesting Week 10 in the NFL, as teams off road underdog outright wins are 13-6-1 ATS. This week Tennessee, San Diego, Dallas and Arizona all qualify.

It used to be only sharps would bet football early and it would be relatively easy to track what top bettors were playing. It seems as least this year that has not been the case. In the NFL, games that move two or more points on sides by Tuesday night are 5-9 ATS in that direction and totals are even worse 6-12. That’s not to say sharp bettors don’t have off years. But last week was perfect example of patterns not following traditional methods of smart bettors. New Orleans shot from 8.5 to 11-point favorite in a division game against Atlanta and defensive-minded clubs Denver and Baltimore opened at 40 and rose to 42 quickly. Over the years, that is contrarian to their normal wagering patterns.

The Midwest might be facing declining population and the Big Ten clearly is not what it used to be, however these fans still support football and backing them with cash is still frequented. It was a dreadful day for alumni betting on their favorites and the books pocketed handsomely. In games between Big Ten Conference foes, the underdog was perfect 5-0 ATS, with four outright road upsets.

After coming up short most of the season, college home underdogs are showing some bite with 22-14 ATS record the last couple of weeks. Teams off three exact covers (no bye weeks) are 6-14-1 ATS the last month. Teams that force or commit five or more turnovers are 22-8-1 ATS the last month if they play the following week.

Though the numbers has dropped off from ridiculous proportions, totals moves of three or more points from opening until closing are still scintillating 106-56-2, 65.4 percent in the direction they’ve moved and have yet to have a losing week all season.