South Florida Flipped as Favorite

This Thursday evening Big East battle is about bowl placement as much as anything. Earlier conference defeats have relegated these clubs to more minor bowls; however either is capable of finishing 10-2, if they win this contest. Both programs have to feel good about the future, at least from the quarterback position, with freshmen B.J. Daniels for South Florida and Tom Savage at Rutgers at the helm.

South Florida (6-2, 4-3 ATS) showed fire in the belly, upsetting West Virginia at home 30-19 as 2.5-point underdogs, after losing to front-running Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks. Daniels played his most complete game in that win and has the ability to make plays with his feet and shown a good touch on deep passes that has led to several big plays by the Bulls offense. Rutgers is 0-11 ATS when they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards per attempt.

On defense, linemen George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul mess with their opponents passing game, able to apply steady pressure and safety Nate Allen makes big plays all over the field. The weakness of this group is when an opposing team lines up and runs right at them, like the Bearcats and Panthers did for combined 403 yards on the ground. South Florida is 1-8 ATS as favorites against team with over .600 record.

The Scarlet Knights (6-2, 3-5 ATS) defense matches up numbers wise against South Florida (322.9 vs. 315.6 yards allowed), however much of that came against inferior competition. What Greg Schiano’s defense has to do is take away the Bulls rushing attack (3.3 YPG allowed) and play Cover 2 defensive principles, forcing Daniels to be accurate thrower underneath, which has not been his strength to date. They lead the Big East in takeaways with 25.

On offense, have RB Joe Martinek use his big body to run downhill at the USF defense, which sets up Savage in the play-action passing game. Rutgers is 9-1 ATS since last season after a SU victory.

South Florida has gone as one-point road favorite to two-point underdog with total at 45 at Bookmaker.com. Both universities come in with negative trends, with the Bulls 5-8 ATS in last 13 Big East road games and the Scarlet Knights 10-21-1 ATS with extra time off. Rutgers is also a train wreck with 3-16 ATS mark in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better, however, almost two weeks have passed since that occurred.

The underdog has had plenty of bite; with perfect 4-0 spread record the last four years. The average score in that time span is surprising 60 points per game.

The Big East and ESPN get a head start on the NFL, with his matchup commencing at 7:45 Eastern, with USF on 0-4 ATS Thursday slide.