New York may have the champions of baseball, but they also have football that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender that’s surrendered 110 points in three consecutive losses. The Giants will attempt to end losing streak against San Diego before their bye week. It’s a conundrum for NFL sports bettors, with several large spreads in division games; do you take or give the points? Baltimore upset Denver last week and is now a road favorite at first place Cincinnati who’s rested off a bye. Hmmm.Houston at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS
Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) has only beaten Indianapolis one time in franchise history, against 13 defeats (8-6 ATS). A second win would help close the gap between the teams in the AFC South race. That is an unlikely occurrence though, as oddsmakers have Indy as a heavy nine-point favorite, and the Colts average home win over the Texans has been 35-17. Houston does have the ability to keep it close though, since last year’s two meetings were decided by four and six points, and head coach Gary Kubiak’s team is 5-2 ATS in pre-bye week games, all as an underdog. Also, Indy (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is on a 1-4 spread slide at home vs. AFC South foes, while Houston has covered seven of its last nine against divisional games. The last eight meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total, averaging 56.1 points per game, with 48 being the fewest points scored.
Keys to the Game-
Houston finally had a big rushing day, running over Buffalo for 186 yards. The Texans are still only 28th in rushing, but it’s a start and Indianapolis is 23rd in the league in allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Establishing a running game keeps Peyton Manning on the bench. Who leads the NFL in passing yards, not Manning, its Matt Schaub. The former Virginia signal caller has lots of weapons, even without TE Owen Daniels (out for season). Schaub has to be judicious in making the right choices and not turning the ball over. Houston is 10-2 ATS in the second two road encounters and has improved immensely on defense going from 32nd after three games, to current 16th ranking. Stop the Colts running game and play coverage, since blitzing Manning only works if you get there.
Indianapolis will have to bring a pass rush, since they are up against a decided mismatch with backups at the corners vs. talented Texans’ pass catchers. While Manning threw for 349 yards last week, it was an “off” game for him as the Colts kicked four field goals in scoring only 18 points. Manning seldom has two such games and Houston only has 11 sacks (T-29th). Indy is 9-1 ATS off a non-cover when the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons.
3DWLine – Indianapolis by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -8.5, 50
Baltimore at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS
Baltimore and Cincinnati have an important rematch, of what was one of the most exciting games of 2009 to date. The Bengals (5-2, 4-3 ATS) won in Baltimore 17-14, as nine-point underdogs, on a last minute field goal and have since stayed atop the AFC North Division. This week’s venue switches to the Queen City, where favorites have won the last five head-to-head series meetings. Cincinnati owns a 3-2 SU & ATS edge in that span. The Bengals were on bye last week and are just 4-9 ATS in post-bye week games since 1996. They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in division games this season. The Ravens (4-3, 5-2 ATS) won a big game against Denver to snap a three-game losing skid and climb back over .500. They are backed by a StatFox Super Situation showing road teams as 60-27 ATS since 2005 revenging an upset loss at home.
Keys to the Game-
Denver made a big miscue in not attacking Baltimore’s corners down the field, Cincinnati won’t let that pass. The Ravens secondary problems can be masked with pass rush, however Carson Palmer has too much talent on the perimeter, this means Baltimore has to keep damage to a minimum. If anything, stop the run and force Palmer into bad down and distance situations. Note to Baltimore- Stop playing such vanilla defense, keep blitzing like last week. Baltimore has to run effectively with its three-headed monster and control the game in that fashion and let Joe Flacco run play-action. Flacco is averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt and the Birds are 19-3 ATS when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing YPA.
Palmer was burned by Ed Reed for Pick Six in last encounter; he must stay away from the All-Pro safety. One difference Cincinnati has this season that is a benefit against Baltimore is more physical style in the trenches. They can compete and welcome back RT Andre Smith, which should only helps RB Cedric Benson. Tight end Todd Heap again is not healthy, which places a premium on bottling WR Derrick Mason. Put Mason in a defensive jar (pitiful) and the Bengals are 7-0 ATS as underdogs.
3DW Line – Baltimore by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Baltimore -3, 44.5
Miami at New England 1:00E CBS
The Patriots (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are starting to strike fear into opponents and oddsmakers once again, and wins of 35-7 and 59-0 in a two-week span tend to do that. Reestablishing a dominant home field advantage also helps, as they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous home contests with an average win of 24.4 points per game. They have had two weeks to bask in the limelight of a satisfying win in London over the Bucs, but need to get back to business here against division rival Miami (3-4 ATS). New England has won and covered five straight games as a post-bye week favorite, but has lost both of its divisional battles against the spread this season. They are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Miami since 2000. The Dolphins are 3-4 after winning miraculously in New York last week. They are 4-0 SU & ATS on the divisional road under coach Tony Sparano.
Keys to the Game-
Did Miami really beat the Jets after having 52 yards passing and 52 yards rushing last week? That’s not going to work against New England unless they have three non-offensive touchdowns again. The Dolphins need running game to work right for the first quarter, as Chad Henne did not look nearly as comfortable in enemy territory. Attack the Patriots deep, be it with Ted Ginn Jr. or rookie Brian Hartline, to keep New England from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Fins have young secondary and unless Joey Porter and Jason Taylor can create havoc, Miami falls to 4-16 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.
Tom Brady looks better with each passing game, as the affects of knee surgery dissipate. Having great sight lines and clean pocket opens up the entire Pats playbook for Brady, which suggests the offensive line has to do its job. New England was the first victim of Miami “wildcat” last season and contained it the second time around. With two weeks for Bill Belichick to breakdown any more nuances, New England might really put the clamps on. Belichick has a history of limiting quarterbacks with not much experience. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS off a win by two touchdowns or more and cannot let the Miami special teams be a factor or the game tightens considerably.
3DW Line – New England by 10.5
Sportsbook.com Line – New England -10.5, 46.5
The Patriots (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are starting to strike fear into opponents and oddsmakers once again, and wins of 35-7 and 59-0 in a two-week span tend to do that. Reestablishing a dominant home field advantage also helps, as they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous home contests with an average win of 24.4 points per game. They have had two weeks to bask in the limelight of a satisfying win in London over the Bucs, but need to get back to business here against division rival Miami (3-4 ATS). New England has won and covered five straight games as a post-bye week favorite, but has lost both of its divisional battles against the spread this season. They are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Miami since 2000. The Dolphins are 3-4 after winning miraculously in New York last week. They are 4-0 SU & ATS on the divisional road under coach Tony Sparano.
Keys to the Game-
Did Miami really beat the Jets after having 52 yards passing and 52 yards rushing last week? That’s not going to work against New England unless they have three non-offensive touchdowns again. The Dolphins need running game to work right for the first quarter, as Chad Henne did not look nearly as comfortable in enemy territory. Attack the Patriots deep, be it with Ted Ginn Jr. or rookie Brian Hartline, to keep New England from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Fins have young secondary and unless Joey Porter and Jason Taylor can create havoc, Miami falls to 4-16 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.
Tom Brady looks better with each passing game, as the affects of knee surgery dissipate. Having great sight lines and clean pocket opens up the entire Pats playbook for Brady, which suggests the offensive line has to do its job. New England was the first victim of Miami “wildcat” last season and contained it the second time around. With two weeks for Bill Belichick to breakdown any more nuances, New England might really put the clamps on. Belichick has a history of limiting quarterbacks with not much experience. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS off a win by two touchdowns or more and cannot let the Miami special teams be a factor or the game tightens considerably.
3DW Line – New England by 10.5
Sportsbook.com Line – New England -10.5, 46.5
Carolina at New Orleans 4:05E FOX
New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS) wraps up a two-game divisional homestand when it hosts Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS). The Saints will look to turn the tide on what has been a run of dominance by the Panthers in this series in New Orleans. In fact, Carolina owns a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS record in its last eight trips to Bourbon Street. Expanding on that, road teams have gone 11-4 SU and are scintillating 13-1-1 ATS overall in the last 15 series engagements. That might be all that head coach John Fox’s team has going as a double-digit dog, since these teams have gone in different directions since their regular season ending meeting in January. Since then the Panthers have gone just 3-5 SU & ATS, while the Saints had yet to lose in 2009. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games under Sean Payton.
Keys to the Game –
Carolina got back to playing Panthers football in Arizona, rushing for 270 yards. That formula is what works best for coach Fox’s club and they have to be encouraged Atlanta gouged New Orleans for 6.7 yards per carry (161yards) last Monday night. The Saints feast on mistakes, QB Jake Delhomme has to made decisions like a Rhodes Scholar and not give New Orleans opportunities. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS on the NFC South road since 2002 and have to create a profusion of defensive looks to at least make Drew Brees hesitate an instant and hope the pass rush arrives.
Jumping on Carolina is the best way to beat them. This has been Saints M.O. this year and it takes away the Panthers running game and makes Delhomme a thrower. Advantage Saints. Teams are blitzing Brees more and he has to be more cognizant in the pocket, especially to his back side. New Orleans offense is truly prolific averaging 39 points per game; however they are living in danger committing four turnovers each of the last two games. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, but just 3-10 against the number if it is 10 or more.
3DWLine – New Orleans by 17.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -13, 51.5
New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS) wraps up a two-game divisional homestand when it hosts Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS). The Saints will look to turn the tide on what has been a run of dominance by the Panthers in this series in New Orleans. In fact, Carolina owns a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS record in its last eight trips to Bourbon Street. Expanding on that, road teams have gone 11-4 SU and are scintillating 13-1-1 ATS overall in the last 15 series engagements. That might be all that head coach John Fox’s team has going as a double-digit dog, since these teams have gone in different directions since their regular season ending meeting in January. Since then the Panthers have gone just 3-5 SU & ATS, while the Saints had yet to lose in 2009. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games under Sean Payton.
Keys to the Game –
Carolina got back to playing Panthers football in Arizona, rushing for 270 yards. That formula is what works best for coach Fox’s club and they have to be encouraged Atlanta gouged New Orleans for 6.7 yards per carry (161yards) last Monday night. The Saints feast on mistakes, QB Jake Delhomme has to made decisions like a Rhodes Scholar and not give New Orleans opportunities. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS on the NFC South road since 2002 and have to create a profusion of defensive looks to at least make Drew Brees hesitate an instant and hope the pass rush arrives.
Jumping on Carolina is the best way to beat them. This has been Saints M.O. this year and it takes away the Panthers running game and makes Delhomme a thrower. Advantage Saints. Teams are blitzing Brees more and he has to be more cognizant in the pocket, especially to his back side. New Orleans offense is truly prolific averaging 39 points per game; however they are living in danger committing four turnovers each of the last two games. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, but just 3-10 against the number if it is 10 or more.
3DWLine – New Orleans by 17.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -13, 51.5
San Diego at N. Y. Giants 4:15E CBS
Two of the preseason favorites in their respective conferences get together when the Giants host the Chargers (2-5 ATS). Neither team has lived up to advanced billing, as both are looking up in the standings in their own divisions, much less conferences. San Diego is 4-3 after beating Oakland, but faces a pair of NFC East powers then a trip to Denver. They are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road vs. NFC foes under coach Norv Turner. The Giants (5-3 SU&ATS) have lost three straight games for the first time since 2006, and are 0-5 ATS in their last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes. This starts a stretch of four home games in five contests and the G-Men are 22-9 ATS under Tom Coughlin vs. good offenses gaining 5.65 or more yards per play. New York is 4-1 SU and ATS hosting AFC opposition.
Keys to the Game-
Wasn’t it nice to see LaDainian Tomlinson score a couple of touchdowns last week? Even with that “outburst”, San Diego is still 31st in running the ball, averaging 74.7 YPG against teams that have allowed 114. San Diego has to have even a tolerable running game to help Phillip Rivers, who is third in the league at 8.1 yards per attempt, even without any help. The frequently jaw-jacking Rivers has to like his chances against secondary that has been torched for 262.3 yards the last three weeks. On defense, keep the pressure on Eli Manning to perpetuate his funk. The Chargers are emotional team and feed off it. The Bolts are 11-3 ATS after two or more SU wins and 23-10 ATS on the NFC road.
The Giants are ninth in sacks at 18, but nowhere the previous levels of the last couple of years. New DC Bill Sheridan doesn’t trust he faulty secondary and has been reluctant to blitz, however the results without sending extra attackers hasn’t been encouraging either. The San Diego offensive line has been spotty in protection, your call Bill, as big plays are killing the Giants. Manning has to return to earlier form to make offense click. Unless New York is going to run for 250 yards, they have to have Eli be on target. The Giants are 14-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game.
StatFox Power Line – Giants by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Giants -4.5, 48
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
Two of the preseason favorites in their respective conferences get together when the Giants host the Chargers (2-5 ATS). Neither team has lived up to advanced billing, as both are looking up in the standings in their own divisions, much less conferences. San Diego is 4-3 after beating Oakland, but faces a pair of NFC East powers then a trip to Denver. They are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road vs. NFC foes under coach Norv Turner. The Giants (5-3 SU&ATS) have lost three straight games for the first time since 2006, and are 0-5 ATS in their last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes. This starts a stretch of four home games in five contests and the G-Men are 22-9 ATS under Tom Coughlin vs. good offenses gaining 5.65 or more yards per play. New York is 4-1 SU and ATS hosting AFC opposition.
Keys to the Game-
Wasn’t it nice to see LaDainian Tomlinson score a couple of touchdowns last week? Even with that “outburst”, San Diego is still 31st in running the ball, averaging 74.7 YPG against teams that have allowed 114. San Diego has to have even a tolerable running game to help Phillip Rivers, who is third in the league at 8.1 yards per attempt, even without any help. The frequently jaw-jacking Rivers has to like his chances against secondary that has been torched for 262.3 yards the last three weeks. On defense, keep the pressure on Eli Manning to perpetuate his funk. The Chargers are emotional team and feed off it. The Bolts are 11-3 ATS after two or more SU wins and 23-10 ATS on the NFC road.
The Giants are ninth in sacks at 18, but nowhere the previous levels of the last couple of years. New DC Bill Sheridan doesn’t trust he faulty secondary and has been reluctant to blitz, however the results without sending extra attackers hasn’t been encouraging either. The San Diego offensive line has been spotty in protection, your call Bill, as big plays are killing the Giants. Manning has to return to earlier form to make offense click. Unless New York is going to run for 250 yards, they have to have Eli be on target. The Giants are 14-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game.
StatFox Power Line – Giants by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Giants -4.5, 48
Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.
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