New Year’s Day Bowl Games Early Starters

Happy New Year! With the advent of 2009 (doesn’t the turn of the century seem like it wasn’t that long ago) the Cotton Bowl opted out for a date for tomorrow, helping out all of us that had a little too much fun and stayed up a little too late last night. On paper at least, we appear to have three games that have possibilities of being close. The old-school belief is now when the favorites start coming in with regularity in bowl contests, let’s see if the New Year starts out that way.

Outback Bowl - Iowa vs South Carolina

More than one eyebrow was raised when this contest was announced to start the New Year’s Day bowl festivities. This makes this a more compelling meeting for each, looking to erase doubts. Iowa started 3-3, with three defeats by nine points. The Hawkeyes put it together, culminating in an upset of Penn State. After 55-0 drubbing of Minnesota, Iowa is 17-5 ATS after a game committing no turnovers. The vaunted South Carolina defense caved in for 87 points in last two losses, with zero help from offense. With Iowa solid defensively, surprisingly the Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS vs teams who give up 14 or less PPG. The Hawkeyes are meager 2-6 ATS as bowl favorite, with USC marginally better 2-4 ATS as dog.

Why to Watch and Wager

Steve Spurrier is very aware his team has faded down the stretch the last two years. In fact losing the last couple of games have become common place in Columbia, having done so six of the last seven seasons. Spurrier, seldom the positive sort, has taken a more positive approach since losing to Clemson and wants his players to enjoy the moment and end the season on upbeat note. It might not be that easy for the Gamecocks who are 3-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-6-1 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has won five of last six with ball-hawking defense that is +8 in turnover margin during this streak. Running back Shonn Greene has led the Hawkeyes offense and they have gotten just enough out the passing game to average 30.2 points per game. Iowa is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. In the Outback Bowl, the favorite is 14-6 against the spread with Big Ten 4-2 ATS.

Bookmaker.com Line – Iowa -3.5, 43

Capital One Bowl- Michigan State vs Georgia

Michigan State (9-3, 6-6 ATS) is playing in a New Year’s Day bowl for the first time in nine seasons as they believe they are on the right track to make this annual event. The Spartans were waxed 49-18 by Penn State in their finale, but that’s nothing new and coach Mark Dantonio teams are 9-1 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points. Possibly Georgia (9-3, 3-6-2 ATS) could have lived up to the preseason hype of number one if they could have fielded the team they thought they had in July, but injuries took care of any dreams. Coach Mark Richt teams traditionally have been good away from home, 15-6 ATS playing against a team with 75 percent or higher win percentage. The Bulldogs are good 15-11 ATS in bowls (7-3 ATS L10), with Spartans 5-4 ATS as underdogs.

Why to Watch and Wager

For Georgia, it’s about getting the running game going against Michigan State. In the Bulldogs three losses, Knowshon Moreno was held under the century mark. The coaches have also reviewed the run defense, which allowed 226.4 yards per game in last five encounters, including distressing 409 to Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS as favorites in last seven outings. Michigan State assuredly will test that Georgia front with Javon Ringer, who finished third nationally in rushing at 132.5 yards per game and tied for second in touchdowns with 21. Quarterback Brian Hoyer needs to play well for the Spartans to pull the upset and Michigan State is 10-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records. This bowl has been recently dominated by the Big Ten with five covers in six games, with the only loser being in overtime. In fact, the Big Ten has a streak of four consecutive outright upsets in Orlando.

Bookmaker.com Line – Georgia -7.5, 55

Gator Bowl - Clemson vs Nebraska

Clemson University rewarded Dabo Swinney with head coaching position, for making the best of difficult situation and guiding the Tigers (7-5, 4-6 ATS) to three wins to close the season. Clemson finally lived up to preseason hype, with defense that was ranked 15th overall. They will be called on again against high-powered Nebraska offense that scores 36.2 points per game. The Cornhuskers (8-4, 6-6 ATS) made strides to return to past glories with eight wins this season. Nebraska is a ball-hog on offense, holding it for over 33 minutes a game. The Huskers out-played Colorado in final home game, yet is 0-7 ATS after out-gaining foe by 125 or more total yards. Oddly, Nebraska is 15-15 ATS in bowls. The ACC is 7-0 ATS in this bowl, though Clemson was the last loser in 2001 game.

Why to Watch and Wager

After a tumultuous season, Clemson can still cap the year with a New Year’s Day triumph. The Tigers are making their ninth Gator Bowl appearance and have the same number of functioning weapons they had to start the season. Quarterback Cullen Harper and the backfield of James Davis and C.J. Spiller were all swallowed up by ineffective offensive line, until gaining confidence late in year, which allowed them to win four of five. It should be noted, Clemson averaged just 16.8 points per game away from home compared to 25.5 overall. The Tigers are only 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Nebraska returns to bowl game after one year absence and plays in this bowl for the first time ever. Senior quarterback Joe Ganz was among the plethora of fine signal callers in the Big 12. The Cornhuskers won five of last six and averaged 38 points per game in last three. Even in winning, Nebraska average better than two turnovers a game and is 2-10 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins. The favorite has cashed in nine of last 12 Gator Bowls.

Bookmaker.com Line – Clemson -2, 56

New Year's Eve Betting Action

Split yesterday’s action, but the LCC was perfect 3-0 in bowl games on consensus basis. I’ve posted the consensus again for today. The always popular Perfect Trend is back, this time in the NBA. Yesterday’s college basketball system lost and we come back with an even better one today at 88 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Southern Illinois, after going over the total by more than six points in three consecutive games. This college hoops system is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Detroit Pistons are 11-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or less two straight games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus was 3-0 yesterday; let’s see how they do today. Air Force (+4) 52 percent, Boston College (-3.5) 75 percent, Pittsburgh (+2) 54 percent, Minnesota (+9) 58 percent and Georgia Tech (-4) 52 percent.

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Five Bowls Games to Send 2008 out with a Bang

The last day of 2008 offers up five bowls encounters, staggered by times, as an appetizer before New Year’s Eve celebration. It will feature running teams like the Air Force and Georgia Tech, along with teams that love to throw the ball like Houston and Kansas. Other universities will be attempting to end losing streaks like Minnesota and LSU, while a squad like Pittsburgh wants to keep that winning feeling prevailing into next season. On this the 366th day of the leap year, we even get a team that last appeared in a bowl game in 1982 (Vanderbilt), when one of the most popular groups of that year was Culture Club, fronted by Boy George.

Armed Forces Bowl - Air Force vs Houston

This bowl contest is a marvelous matchup in contrast in styles. Air Force uses the option ground game to rack up 268.9 yards per game (5th in the nation) and Houston (7-5, 4-7 ATS) prefers spread attack with the pass in totaling 413.5 yards per game (2nd in the country). This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Falcons, being one of the youngest teams in the country. They exceeded expectations with 8-4 and 7-4 ATS record and are 13-4 ATS in road games with two or more weeks off. Houston’s defense cost them C-USA title shot in 56-42 loss to Rice and they are only 4-13 ATS after allowing 50 or more points. Air Force may be just 8-9-1 in bowls; nevertheless a 10-5 ATS record makes them attractive potential play. Houston is 6-6 ATS in a dozen tries in the postseason.

Why to Watch and Wager

The Mountain West Conference was believed to be stronger than presumed this season and the Air Force could essentially cement that belief with a victory, assuring the league of a winning postseason record with unbeaten Utah still to come. Military schools are normally very good bowl wagers, since they play with the same intensity all the time and are accomplished in running the ball and eating up time, making bowl foes nervous. The Flyboys are 8-1 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in three straight games. Most people didn’t realize these teams met on Sept.13 when the game was moved to Dallas because of Hurricane Ike. Houston was obviously out of sorts having to give up home game and players worried about their family and friends, losing 31-28 as four point favorites. Some might question the Cougars motivation, but after losing chance to play in C-USA championship, losing three straight bowl games and in revenge spot, there is plenty to prove for Houston.

Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -4, 66

Sun Bowl -Oregon State vs Pittsburgh

The Sun Bowl was able to secure two Top 25 teams and has one of the better non-BCS matchups. If freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is healthy for Oregon State (8-4 SU & ATS), this will set up a hookup between two of the nation's most exciting running backs. Pittsburgh’s LeSean McCoy is sensational runner and totaled 21 touchdowns in 2008. Both squads overcame slow starts to finish strong. The Panthers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) closed 4-1 straight up and ATS, but were sloppy with the ball and are 3-16 ATS after consecutive games committing three or more turnovers. The Beavers were a busy 8-2 ATS after losing first two, and are 8-0 ATS after covering the spread in two of last three games. Oregon State is on 4-0 and 3-1 ATS in recent bowls; Pitt plays in the postseason for first time since 2002.

Why to Watch and Wager

Among the bowls before 2009, this has the possibility of being a real head-knocker. Both teams prefer to run the ball and each has an above average passing game. Pittsburgh will have health edge with Jacquizz Rodgers still a little uncertain, but his bother James is definitely out with broken collarbone which he suffered in last game. Though Pittsburgh faired well, they are still coached by Dave Wannstedt, meaning anything is possible, good or bad. Off their 34-10 pasting of Connecticut, the Panthers are 4-11 ATS following a SU win of more than 20 points. Oregon State slid from trip to Pasadena to El Paso, but chances are still realized they lost four games. Coach Mike Riley has normally been sound in bowl preparation, with the Beavers 6-2 ATS in last eight off a loss. Sun Bowl fact- The underdog is 16-4 ATS the last two decades.

Bookmaker.com Line – Oregon State -2, 51.5

Music City Bowl - Boston College vs Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt waited 26 years to play in first bowl game and they don’t even get to leave Nashville, playing in Music City Bowl. The Commodores (6-6, 7-5 ATS) come in among the coldest bowl teams, losing six of last seven encounters. The offense caused this to happen, finishing 117th in total yards. Vandy is 22-7 ATS away from home after playing their last game on the road. Boston College (9-4, 7-5 ATS) suffered a second straight ACC title game defeat and their motivation will come into question. With two defensive teams, this conflict could go Under. Boston College is 22-9 UNDER on the road after a spread loss and Vanderbilt is 17-6 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons. The Eagles are riding eight bowl game winning streak and had reeled off nine bowl covers in a row before losing last two.

Why to Watch and Wager

Let’s start with the fact if your dad or grandfather was a sports bettor and made you watch the bowls when you were around 10 years old, you would be 36 now being able to witness Vanderbilt in a bowl game again. The Commodores haven’t moved the ball against hardly anyone and with the behemoths Boston College has like B.J. Raji, probably aren’t going to be moved by Vandy’s less than dandy O-Line. At least the ‘Dores are 7-2 ATS as underdogs. The Eagles would most likely have played in a better bowl, but B.C. fans are well known for watching bowl games on television, not in the stands. If Boston College could not cover last year against Michigan State in Champs Bowl, they could have equally as difficult a time against Vanderbilt, who has solid defense. The Music City Bowl is notorious for dogs covering with 8-2 ATS mark, with faves losing outright seven times.

Bookmaker.com Line – Boston College -3.5, 40.5

Insight Bowl - Minnesota vs Kansas

Though Minnesota (7-5, 7-4 ATS) finished with four straight losses, this bowl experience should be cherished after 1-11 2007 campaign. The Golden Gophers have real deficiencies in the offensive line and are 3-12 ATS after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games. Minnesota was 81st in points scored and figures to have to do better against potent Kansas (7-5, 6-5 ATS) offense. Possibly the defense can get after talented Kansas QB Todd Reesing, who was sacked frequently (92nd overall) in 2008.

The Jayhawks schedule was tougher and the talent not quite as good as last year’s Orange Bowl outfit, however the upset of rival Missouri had to be satisfying. Kansas is 17-6 ATS in all lined games over the last two years and 12-3 ATS as chalk. This is the Jayhawks fourth bowl experience in six years and first ever in back-to-back seasons.

Why to Watch and Wager

Which Minnesota team shows up, the won that beat Purdue and Illinois on the road or the one that gained 134 total yards at home against Iowa in season finale 55-0 massacre? On the heels of 1-11 season, seven wins and bowl should look pretty good; however a fifth consecutive loss wipes away that momentum. The Golden Gophers come in 9-3-1 ATS after allowing 40 or more points. You saw how excited Missouri played in Alamo Bowl; will Kansas have the same feeling after Orange Bowl bout from a season ago? The Jayhawks are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall and should be good as long as they don’t turn the ball over excessively. Nevertheless, teams like Minnesota having lost three straight games and catching points cover the spread over 70 percent of the time.

Sportsbook.com Line – Kansas -9, 59

Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU vs Georgia Tech

Nobody would have expected the final records of these two clubs, heading into this bowl matchup when the 2008 began. The thought of LSU allowing 30 or more points in half their games in ludicrous, yet it occurred. The Tigers (7-5, 2-9 ATS) were the first consensus national champion since Ohio State in 1943 to follow their national championship title with a losing conference record and are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

The wisdom in hiring Paul Johnson to run option offense with the speed of ACC players was questioned, yet Georgia Tech (9-3, 8-2 ATS) led the league in total offense. The Yellow Jackets were 8-2 ATS this season and are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less. LSU is 4-1 SU and ATS in last five bowls, with serious questions about their desire after playing in so many big contests.

Why to Watch and Wager

If Georgia Tech can run for almost 1,500 yards in last four games against bowl teams Florida State, North Carolina, Miami-Fl and Georgia, why should LSU be any different? Toss in this angle, the Tigers are 0-10 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 4.75 rushing yards per carry over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets will be playing before predominantly home crowd in there own city, though LSU will have plenty of support. What could fire up the Tigers are turnovers. Georgia Tech gave the ball up 24 times and had nearly that many they recovered themselves. If they play dropsies again, LSU still athletes that can be difference makers and cash them in. The Bengal Tigers are 10-1 ATS away from home after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

Sportsbook.com Line – Georgia Tech -4, 53

Tuesday Dec.30 Wagering Material

Took our lumps a little yesterday with 1-2 day as Davidson just missed out on cover. Today’s Top Trend is in the NBA following the Memphis team. We give you what is happening from betting syndicate in today’s three bowls, plus a college basketball system that is 85.7 percent in rivalry game.Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Clemson, where the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. This system has brought home winners 85.7 percent of the time, with 24-4 ATS record.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-13 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection has Rice covering with 56 percent, Maryland at 51 percent and Oregon at 58 percent, though most that wagered today are on Okie State.

Oregon and Oklahoma State Mean Points in Holiday Bowl

If you are looking to be entertained, it might make sense to plan Tuesday night watching a college bowl game where points will not be in short supply. Oregon comes in averaging 41.9 points per game and Oklahoma State is right behind them 41.6 points. Both schools offer splendid running games that total up yardage faster than a grocery store bill to feed a family of six and have capable running backs that can go the distance at a moments notice.

Oklahoma State (9-3, 8-3 ATS) may be favored by 2.5-points, but one of the most dangerous offenses in the country this side of Norman will invade San Diego. The Oregon Ducks (9-3, 6-6 ATS) are averaging 45 points per game in last five contests, with a running game totaling 281.6 yards per game during the same period. The Ducks have double-barreled duo in senior Jeremiah Johnson and junior LeGarrette Blount, who combined for 2,100 yards and 28 trips to the end zone. Oregon has covered five of last six as bowl underdogs.

Oklahoma State running proficiency isn’t far behind at 256 yards per game and 5.6 per carry. They utilize the talents of Kendall Hunter, who ran for over 1,500 yards along with a few other backs. Quarterback Zac Robinson is the one who runs the show, being a skilled runner and excellent thrower, good for 2,735 yards with 24 TDs and eight interceptions this season. Oklahoma State’s only fault this season was being in wrong division, matched up against Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech, all resulting in losses. The Cowboys off the Sooners loss are 7-2 ATS off a defeat and 4-1 against the number if they permitted 40 or more points.

This marks a unique return for Okie State coach Mike Gundy, who becomes the first person to play and coach in the Holiday Bowl. He’s looking forward to the experience. We’re very excited about heading to San Diego for the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl,” Gundy said. “It was a tremendous experience for me as a player and I’m happy our team will get to enjoy San Diego and the festivities that surround a great bowl game. … We look forward to playing an excellent Oregon team.” Oklahoma State is just 1-4 ATS when favored by three or less points, but Robinson will be matched against the 108th ranked pass defense in the country.

Oregon’s coach Mike Bellotti knows what to expect, “Both of these teams run the ball really well,” Bellotti said. “But in the final analysis the team that plays the best defense in the game is going to win.” His team will look to exploit Cowboys defense which allowed 38.1 points per game against the six bowl teams they faced this season. Bellotti’s teams are on 10-2 ATS in non-conference action.

Oklahoma State is among your better bowl teams with 12-6 record and sporting outstanding 7-1-1 ATS mark as favorite. The Ducks are 5-3 ATS as dogs and 6-5 ATS under coach Bellotti. Big 12 favorites have failed to cover over 77 percent of the time in bowls against the Pac-10.
In the long history of this bowl, the favorite is 11-17 ATS, winning the last two. More often then not, the OVER has been the correct total, presently on a 5-3 run the last eight matchups. Keep an eye on this tidbit; Pac-10 underdogs have paid up 80 percent of the time in last 20 bowl games.

ESPN has coverage starting at 8 Eastern for this year’s Holiday Bowl.

Matt Millen's Perfect Masterpiece

This pride of Lions is not proud of its perfect season.

"No competitor wants to go through something like this," whimpered Detroit Lions head coach Rod Marinelli after his team suffered loss number 16 on the season and completed a winless 2008 campaign.

Kicker Jason Hanson described his feelings with more detail. “It’s so mind-numbingly awful. It’s a feeling of complete utter embarrassment and sadness.”

Don't be so hard on yourself Jason. You put together a career year, but unfortunately it will always be overshadowed by the goose egg your team posted in the win column.

The Detroit Lions became the first team since the league adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978 to go 0-16 and the beleaguered franchise has now lost 23 of their last 24 games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the last team to go winless during an NFL season, piecing together a laughable 0-14 record in 1976.

But my hat is off to Detroit.

Think about it, it’s probably just as hard to go defeated during a professional sports season as it is to go undefeated. This team had to do quite a few things wrong to not accidentally stumble upon a win. They blew countless leads including a 17-point first quarter margin against Tampa Bay in Week 12.

And this memorable season was a treat for the die-hard fan. It’s not every year we get to witness meaningful sports history being made. Our hopes of perfection were dashed last year after the Giants denied the Patriots a 19-0 season by downing New England in Super Bowl XLII.

With baseball history on the line back in ‘03, I can remember praying for the Detroit Tigers to lose four of their last seven games and rewrite the almanac. They ended up only losing two of their final seven outings but still set an American League record with 119 losses. I love historical sports seasons because I know I will one day be able to say to my grandkid, “Sonny, I can remember back in aught-eight when the Lions didn’t win a stinking game!”

No, not even the firing of former General Manager and Team President Matt Millen on Sept. 24 could save Detroit from infamous perfection. A move that many believe was a step in the right direction for the hapless Lions.

Millen was just a minor thorn in the Lions’ paw however. The lack of talent on this team is blinding.

Detroit never even mustered a 300-yard passing game this season between quarterbacks Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper. Only twice did running back Kevin Jones eclipse the 100-yard mark and stud wideout Calvin Johnson was the only receiver to record a 100-yard game – doing that five times only because of his uncanny ability.

“I thought this team tried hard all year,” Coach Marinelli stated on Sunday. “I thought they gave it their best; I felt I gave it my best, but sometimes your best is not good enough and it wasn’t good enough this year.”

And it wasn’t good enough for the Detroit Lions organization as they relieved Marinelli of his duties on Monday morning after serving as the head coach for three seasons.

This could be just the beginning. Expect to see plenty of turnover for the Lions roster, coaching staff and front office over the course of the next few months.

The question remains, can this faction of perfect losers turn the ship around? Hope is given by the parity of the NFL including this year’s Dolphins, Ravens and Falcons. These three teams boasted records of 1-15, 3-13 and 4-12 a season ago but all have found themselves in the ‘08 postseason beginning next weekend.

But if the courageous-less Lions continue their dismal ways in ’09, I will be cheering them on for another unwanted record. They have lost 17 straight contests dating back to last season and with 10 consecutive defeats to start next year, Detroit can hold the distinction of losing the most games in NFL history.

Scott Cooley is freelance writer and drops in at 3Daily Winners occasionally.

Monday's Best Basketball Wagering Outlooks

Kendall was 3-1 yesterday in the NFL and called me to say he was sorry about Buffalo not covering and being shutout. I told him with all the winners we picked up from him, not a problem. Sal takes his place today after a strong college basketball weekend and offers his best play. The Top Trend takes a look at Davidson in very challenging spot tonight. The Best System play is remarkable 22-3 in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like New Jersey off an upset win as an underdog, against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. This is a very strong system that is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Davidson is 12-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal from the LLC was 5-1 in college hoops this past weekend and is riding Connecticut at -6 in Big East bash this Monday.

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Northwestern Double Digit Dogs to end Bowl Drought

Northwestern has something to prove coming into tonight’s Alamo Bowl game, after enjoying their best campaign since 1996, when they were 9-2 and played in Citrus Bowl. The Wildcats have lost five bowl games in a row, all as underdogs (1-4 ATS) and basically none of them have been close. Northwestern has been out-scored 47 to 28 in those five appearances and could start to take some of Notre Dame’s thunder for bowl futility with another embarrassing defeat in San Antonio.

“I think, if anything, (the bowl drought) will provide a little extra motivation,” senior quarterback C.J. Bacher said. “At the beginning of the year we set out to win a bowl game and we’ve put ourselves in a position to do that.”

Northwestern’s 9-3 record ended up quite a feat, though expectations were higher this season with a solid number of quality returning players. “To be at nine wins right now with an opportunity for number ten, the opportunity to achieve our main goal this year—to win a bowl game—is all right here in front of us,” said coach Pat Fitzgerald, the second-youngest head coach in the nation at 33, in his third season after taking over following the unexpected death of Randy Walker in June 2006. Fitzgerald was part of the 1995 Rose Bowl team, the last Northwestern squad to win 10 games.

Most previous Wildcats teams that have made it to bowl games lacked defense, this group is quite a bit more solid in allowing 19.3 points per game. This Northwestern club has a more aggressive approach on defense with 33 sacks on the season. Despite the lack of success in bowls by the ‘Cats, Big 10 bowlers are 21-11-1 ATS if their opponent is off a loss.

Bookmaker.com has Missouri as a 12.5-point favorite, with a total of 66, despite losing last two games. Offensively, the Tigers are exceptional at 43.2 points per game with quarterback Chase Daniel heaving the pigskin to the likes of receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman.
What ended up hurting Missouri as much as anything was the offense was always under pressure to score, since the defense was rather pathetic, allowing 27.5 points per game. In particular, the pass defense was atrocious, ranking 117th in the country, which accounted for the Tigers 9-4 season.

Coach Gary Pinkel was asked if this ended up being a disappointing year. “Well, I don’t think that,” he said. “Do I wish the regular season would have ended up that we were 11-1 instead of 9-3? Yeah, we should have done that. But I think we had a good year.” Missouri is was bombed by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game 62-21 and is 19-7 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game.

Senior quarterback Daniel has the right perspective, “We can finish off in style. When was the last time a Missouri team won 10 games back-to-back in history? Never. We still have a chance to make history.” It should be noted Misso is 15-4 ATS after trailing by 17 or more points at the half in last contest.

The Alamo Bowl has been a graveyard for Big 12 teams with 4-10 ATS record, including 3-10 against the spread if they favored against Big 10 teams in any recent bowl matchup.

Northwestern will try to emulate what others have done to Daniel, pressure him into mistakes. If the Missouri QB has time, it will be another long bowl date for the Wildcats. If they can make Daniel uncomfortable, they have the offense to play keep away and move the chains against a porous Tigers D. Coach Fitzgerald can also bring up about his team being dissed, since their position in the conference should have meant an Outback Bowl bid, but those representatives went for attendance and took Iowa because it travels better, despite Northwestern beating them on the road.

Missouri put last year’s Big 12 title loss behind them in 38-7 romp of Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl. Two significant differences were the game was played on New Year’s Day and they were playing a SEC team. This game is just another among the batch and purple and white doesn’t raise the hair on the back of the neck. Nevertheless, the Tigers have covered three straight bowl games.

Kick-off is at 8:00 Eastern on ESPN.

The Final Week of NFL Regular Season

The Atlanta Hawks big fourth quarter cost us a 3-0 record, with the Bulls failing to cover by just two points. 3Daily Winners expects to end the NFL season with a bang and has an 88.5 percent Totals System to start things off. Kendall has been masterful in the NFL all year and offers his best play and the Detroit Lions can make history today in Green Bay where they have not won since 1991, as today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on home teams like Arizona against the total, who are poor rushing team (70-95 rushing yards per game) against an average rushing defense like Seattle (95-125 RY/G) after eight or more games on the season, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. This is a remarkable system at 22-3, 88.5 percent the last decade.

Free Football Trend -2) The Detroit Lions are is 0-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three years, with average margin of loss 12.1.

Free Football Selection -3) We been with Kendall all year and he has been good to us (and himself) with 42-24-1 (63.6 percent) NFL record and for his final regular reason top play he has Buffalo at +6.

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Week 17 NFL Betting Info

At this juncture we know the New York Giants, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Carolina and Atlanta are in the playoffs, with the latter two still not having a firm spots based on positioning. This means that seven positions have to be filled on Sunday and a total of nine need specific placements before we can say with certainty after the Sunday Night game, which teams are in or out. This week can be as tough as any for NFL bettors in the regular season with so many possibilities. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll eliminate what ties mean as possibilities in accessing playoff chances. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 17 numbers.

Miami at New York Jets (Jets -2.5, 43)

The Dolphins win AFC East with a win and the Jets win division with victory and New England loss.

Keys to the Game-
Chad Pennington can stick it to his former team, for not having faith in him to be playoff quarterback. Miami is 5-2 SU and ATS on the road and HUGE key to their success protecting the football. If they commit one or less turnovers, they will break the NFL's single-season record for fewest turnovers in a season. The Dolphins red zone defense needs to hold up one more game, already the best in 53.3 in stopping opponents from scoring touchdown. Can Miami overcome 5-15 ATS record in road games revenging a home loss? The Jets are long shot and they know it, but better to take somebody down with you. Brett Favre has looked every bit of 39 years old since the colder temperatures have developed and he has to have big game for New York to even have chance. The Jets are 9-3 ATS in season finales.

New England at Buffalo (Bills +5.5, 39)

New England win the AFC East with a win and Miami loss or makes the playoffs with a win and Baltimore loss.

Keys to the Game-
New England has gotten off to flying starts the last two weeks and can take Buffalo out of the game early with another quick start. Matt Cassel is playing exceptionally and the defense has looked better with stronger pass rush. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less and must contain Buffalo special teams or this gets dicey. Bill Belicheck’s defense needs to harass QB Trent Edwards into mistakes, if they do, New England moves to 11-6 and 11-5-1 ATS in Buffalo.

Jacksonville at Baltimore (Ravens -11, 37.5)

Baltimore clinches wild card berth with a win or if Miami and New England lose.

Keys to the Game-
Jacksonville could be dangerous opponent for Baltimore, playing with nothing to lose and being huge underdogs. The Ravens will want to break the Jaguars will and have to take away their running game, while running the pigskin themselves with second ranked run offense at 150.3 yards per game. Baltimore needs to kick-start Willis McGahee, since he is true inside-outside runner, compared to Le’Ron McClain. Baltimore is 11-4 ATS on the season and is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win since 2006.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (Vikings -7, 42)

Minnesota wins NFC North with a win or Chicago loss.

Keys to the Game-
The Giants has clinched what they needed and might not bring best effort, but that doesn’t mean Tom Coughlin won’t have his team compete, especially with a week off. Minnesota must reestablish Adrian Peterson, who has been a bobbling machine in recent weeks. They need him to protect the ball better, yet not be too conservative a running threat. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson went back to making poor decisions last week at crucial times, the Giants are too good not take advantage of his mistakes. Jackson must be astute in the passing game. Atlanta only has 98 yards rushing, nonetheless had 32 attempts in the Metrodome, this can’t happen again against the Giants or they move to 15-2 ATS facing teams with winning records.

Chicago at Houston (Texans -3, 46.5)

Chicago wins NFC North with a victory and Minnesota loss or takes Wild Card with win and Dallas and Tampa Bay both lose.

Keys to the Game-
Chicago swept their three-game homestand, yet was far from impressive, especially in the latter two. The last two games were overtime wins versus New Orleans and Green Bay and they were out-gained 670 to 436 total yards. Houston came up flat after four consecutive wins and five covers in a row at Oakland. They will want to finish .500 and have best ever home record at 6-2. The Bears either will have to keep up scoring wise with the Texans averaging 25 points per game at home or cling to the ball with time of possession and ring up enough points. Chicago desperately needs a pass rush on what should be a fast track to offset the talented Texans perimeter game. The Bears are 8-19 ATS versus offensive teams averaging six or more yards a play and must come up big.

Carolina at New Orleans (Saints +1.5, 51.5)

Carolina clinches NFC South and first round bye with a win or Atlanta loss. A defeat and Atlanta victory sends them to the Wild Card round next week.

Keys to the Game-
Talk about your tough situations for Carolina! A victory means a week off, followed by a home game for the Panthers. A loss means playing on the road next week on the presumption Atlanta handles St. Louis, saddled with two straight defeats. This has to be accomplished against a live home underdog who has won four of six, with the two losses totaling six points. The Saints will be throwing the ball around; with Drew Brees chasing Dan Marino’s season passing yards record. This means Julius Peppers and the front four must bring pressure, with the Saints gunning for them. Though Jake Delhomme could likely hit a few deep shots with Steve Smith versus Saints secondary, Carolina would be better served to run the ball and limit their possessions. The Cats are 40-16 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 24 or more points a game.

Oakland at Tampa Bay (Buccaneers -13, 39.5)

Tampa Bay clinches Wild Card with a win and Dallas defeat.

Keys to the Game-
Tampa Bay should win this game by running the ball and having Jeff Garcia pick apart Oakland with short passes. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin should have fun dialing up blitzes against JaMarcus Russell. Only concern here is covering big number for a Bucs team that has lost three in a row. Maybe the Raiders 0-7 ATS record in non-conference games over the last two years will help.

Dallas at Philadelphia (Eagles -1, 42.5)

Dallas clinches Wild Card with a win or Chicago and Tampa Bay both lose. Philadelphia clinches Wild Card with win and losses by Tampa Bay, Minnesota and or Chicago.

Keys to the Game-
It would behoove an emotionally fragile team like Dallas to play well early against an Eagles squad that's sure to be fired up. Philadelphia has outscored opponents 82-50 in the opening 15 minutes. The Cowboys have to pick up the Eagles blitzes and Tony Romo can not continue to play like an average Joe quarterback. Defensively, Dallas had been solid until last week, they need to control Brian Westbrook and make Donovan McNabb jumpy in the pocket. The Boys are stellar 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. Philadelphia gave up on the running game again too easily in loss to Washington. With the Eagles wide receivers dropping seven catch-able passes last week, the receivers focus has to be improved no matter who is available. The defense has to harass Romo who has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions in two December meetings with Philly. The Birds are 8-1 ATS off a NFC East loss rival over the last three years.

Early Line Moves in Football

The early Line Moves continue in the NFL after 1-1 Week 16 on the sides, making the record to 14-16, 46.6 percent. The Totals did well with 3-2 record, raising season record to 29-21-1, 58 percent. The Bowls are currently 1-2 on the sides and 1-1 on the totals. Like I mentioned last week, it is difficult to pinpoint the smart money with bowls, with just one or two games played in a day and that shows up in Central Michigan and Over both being wrong. I have on very good authority Sunday’s college bowl game is “smart” money, no matter the outcome.

NFL Sides
Green Bay -7.5 to -9.5
Houston -1 to -2.5
Tennessee Pick to -3
Pittsburgh -9 to -10.5
Arizona -3.5 to -5

NFL Totals
Tenn/Indy 41 to 38
NE/Buff 43.5 to 41
Cleve/Pitt 34 to 31.5

Bowl Game Sides
Northern Ill. -3 to Pick

Will update Monday the rest of the bowls for next week.

A Look at Saturday's Best

Take the ol’ 2-1 day any day and have a hunger for a 3-0 Saturday. We’ll start with a Top Trend in the bowls today, taking a look how Wisconsin Badgers matchup against better defensive teams. The Best System we found in any sport is in college basketball and might have to be read twice to understand. What is simple to comprehend is 34-8 record. Willie of the Left Coast Connection stays boiling hot in the NBA and has Best Bet, plus consensus of today's three bowl games. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams as an underdog or pick like Washington State, who is a good ball handling team, committing 14 or less turnovers a game, after two straight games forcing opponent to commit eight or less turnovers. How this system work is teams don’t play the same way all the time and in a road environment, sometimes things don’t go their way. This system is 34-8 ATS, 81 percent the last 11 seasons.

Free Football Trend -2) Wisconsin is 0-8 ATS against teams that allow 310 or less yards per game.

Free Selections -3) Willie of the LLC, not only had New Orleans, but also Minnesota and Oklahoma City as winners Friday, raising record to 32-13 with most recent NBA plays. Today he is on Chicago with the +10 at Atlanta. The LLC members are virtually split on Champs and Emerald Bowl, but favor West Virginia by a 2-to-1 margin.

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Three Good Bowls to Watch and Wager On

A tripleheader of bowl game action on ESPN starts at 1:00 Eastern Saturday, pitting North Carolina against West Virginia in the Car Care Bowl. Immediately following will be two schools who are regular bowlers in Wisconsin and Florida State, meeting in the Champs Sports Bowl from Orlando. The nitecap takes us to the city by the bay in San Francisco, with California having to travel a short distance to take on Miami-Florida in the Emerald Bowl. Thus far favorites are 4-4 against the spread and the total is 4-3-1 Over.

Meineke Car Care Bowl - North Carolina vs West Virginia

Back in late October, this was more likely to be a Gator Bowl matchup then pre-New Year’s Day encounter. Both teams lost in November as favorites twice, lowering their postseason options to Charlotte. From a travel aspect, this might work out just fine and be a good matchup. West Virginia (8-4, 4-7 ATS) has the dynamic running game led by Pat White, at 217.2 yards per game. White is statistically the greatest running quarterback of all-time. Big problem for Mountaineers is 3-12 ATS mark away from home vs. ACC foes.

North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) lived on turnovers all season, but only came up with three in last three games, losing twice. The offense never possessed the ball well and the defense was on the field almost 33 minutes per game. Quarterback T.J. Yates missed half the year with a broken ankle and played well to close the season in win over Duke. Coach Butch Davis teams are 6-0 ATS after no-cover in two out of three affairs.

Why to Watch and Wager

Many in Morgantown are having reservations if Bill Stewart was really the right man to lead this West Virginia football program. The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball, but have to play like it, which has too frequently not been the case this season. Running backs Noel Devine and Jock Sanders can scoot with just a small opening and this no-name defense was ninth in the country in points allowed at 15.9 points per game. If the ‘Teers running game does better a little better then normal, they are 36-10 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

North Carolina’s young team needs to hit a few big plays to build confidence and shake West Virginia up. Getting the ball to receiver Hakeem Nicks is the way to do this. The Tar Heels have talent in the defensive line and if they come to play could cause West Virginia problems. North Carolina must match yards with the Mountaineers since they are 7-18 ATS when they are out-gained by their opponents by 100-150 yards.

North Carolina is 12-13 and 9-6-1 ATS in bowls, with West Virginia 12-16 and desultory 6-12-1 ATS, including 0-4 against the number as favorites. The ACC has won and covered five of the six Car Care bowls with the Big East 1-4 SU and ATS.

Bookmaker.com Line – West Virginia -2.5, 46

Champs Sports Bowl -Wisconsin vs Florida State

This matchup is a game for the ages. Bobby Bowden is 79 and Badgers coach Bret Bielema is 38. Wisconsin (7-5, 5-6 ATS), despite winning last three contests was a season long disappointment. A phlegmatic offense was followed by a defense that lost focus in the middle of the year. A shocking loss at Michigan after leading 19-0 set the table for four consecutive defeats and they later managed to blow winnable contest at Michigan State. Cal –Poly missing three extra points in Madison, kept the Badgers from being .500 team. They are 0-8 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season.

Florida State (8-4, 5-5 ATS) showed signs of returning to the top of the ACC, but made 10 turnovers in last three losses to chuck that to the side. The Seminoles did make a number of improvements this season however. Florida State had a running game that finished in the top 25 percent in the country at 180.4 yards per game. Signal caller Christian Ponder energized the team early, but did not do much past the halfway point of the season. The defense started to look like previous models finishing 14th in total defense, even with Florida hanging 45 points on them. Coach Bowden teams are 19-9 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Why to Watch and Wager

Wisconsin is 6-3 ATS as bowl underdog and will attack the Noles run defense which was exploited in November for 192.6 yards per game. The Badgers for the season averaged 204.9 yards per game and will need quarterback Dustin Sherer to keep his wits about him and find tight end Garrett Graham to help move the chains.

The Seminoles are noteworthy bowl participant with 18-10-1 ATS record and will have speed edge. The Wisconsin offensive line has problems with speed rushers and Florida State has a slew of them, which led them to sixth in the nation in sacks with 36 on the year and second in tackles for loss. On offense, the Noles have to be patient and take what’s given, since the Badgers will likely wear down as they often have this season in the second half.

After a number of blowouts, the underdog is 3-0 ATS the last three years of this seven year old bowl contest.

Bookmaker.com Line – Florida State -6, 52

Emerald Bowl -California vs Miami-FL

Miami didn’t finish as strongly as they would have liked with two losses, and a tired Hurricanes defense ran out of gas, costing backers three spread shortfalls. Miami (7-5, 5-6 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS off one or more straight Overs, nonetheless, coach Randy Shannon is thankful for the extra practice time with his young squad. One element that rears its ugly head every bowl season is suspensions, with one team usually being hit harder than most. Thus far Miami is the clubhouse leader, with five players now suspended. How the team reacts early will set the tone.

In spite of a revolving door under center, California (9-3 ATS) won eight games this season, finishing with a flourish by clobbering Stanford and Washington. The Bears are 8-0 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more since 2006, but one 1-4 SU away from Berkeley this season. This should be a good game to showcase running back Jahvid Best, who was second only to Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin in all-purpose yards. The Bears also installed a new 3-4 defense and they embraced it like honey, finishing in the top 15 in the county in sacks and turnover margin. Cal is 8-2 ATS this season when favored.

Why to Watch and Wager

Miami has only played at home once since the end of October and this is a home game of sorts for Cal being 10 miles awhile. This is the Hurricanes first visit west in seven years and will have to have the running game working with Javarris James and Kraig Cooper working, considering how poor the passing game has been all season. The Canes are just 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season over the last two seasons, but were 4-2 ATS as visitors this year. Miami is 18-13 all-time in bowls and will be an underdog for just the fourth time in 24 lined games.

California has a defense good enough to stifle the Miami offense and possibly create turnovers leading to points. Best is the Bears best offensive weapon and whoever the starting quarterback is for Jeff Tedford has to play within the confines of the offense. Cal is 11-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. California is 9-8-1 in bowl matchups with 5-5 ATS record.

The Emerald Bowl has been a rather dull event, but having California will add some like. The favorite is just 1-4 ATS in six year history.

Bookmaker.com Line – California -10, 50.5

Post Hoilday Betting Action

Well at least we hope you had a great Christmas, as we were off our game a bit with 1-2 day overall. Found an amazing system about bowl game totals that is 26-4 since 2004. How do the Jazz perform at home in a specific spot, see below. A newer member of the LCC chimes in a hot streak and gives his NBA best bet. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in minor bowl games played in December. This system rocks at 26-4, 86.7 percent the last five years, with an average total being 80.8 points.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Utah Jazz is is 13-1 ATS in home games after a non-conference game over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selections -3) A low key member of the Left Coast Connection named Willie, bases all his basketball plays on an intricate math formula of power ratings and is 29-13 his last 42 NBA plays. Put him down for New Orleans tonight.

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Motor City Bowl Preview

Central Michigan didn’t end up playing in the MAC Championship, however still landed in the Motor City Bowl for the third straight year. A Chippewas defense that permitted 30.7 points per game, prevented them from repeating as conference champs again. The Central Michigan offense is led by quarterback Dan LeFevour, one of the top dual threat signal callers in the country. The Chips are 25-12 ATS since LeFevour’s arrival.

After a struggling start, Florida Atlantic got hot winning five of last six (4-2 ATS). Quarterback Rusty Smith finally found a groove the Owls took off. Florida Atlantic received this invitation because the Big Ten didn’t have enough qualifying teams to filter down to this bowl tie-in. The Owls strength is passing the ball, doing so for 251 yards per game. They should be able to do this with relative ease, since Central Michigan is next to last in the country in allowing 285.7 yards per game.

Why to Watch and Wager

A high scoring game won’t bother FAU, who is 12-3 ATS scoring 28 or more points. The Owls have lost starters due to suspensions meaning replacements have to step up. Smith was only sacked 12 times all season and should have time to make all the throws and Florida Atlantic is 7-0 ATS vs. awful passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62 percent or worse.

The Owls haven’t seen as versatile a performer under center since facing Colt McCoy in the opener. LeFevour can make all the throws and is excellent open field runner. Central Michigan is not above taking gifts even after Christmas, with FAU -15 in turnover margin on the season, the Chippewas should take advantage if opportunities arise. CMU is 19-9 ATS in games played on turf over the last three seasons. Because this is a lackluster matchup, take the Over on empty seats in this one.

Bookmaker.com Line – Central Michigan -7, 68

Merry Christmas from 3Daily Winners

Merry Christmas to everyone today, hope you enjoyed our story as a change up. We also hope you enjoyed the 2-0 Tuesday. The Cleveland Cavaliers fit the bill for today’s Top Trend. The System falls below our qualifications, but is still a intriguing way to look at a situation. The LCC has two plays on consensus basis today. Again have splendid day and Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like the Lakers after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. This system is 36-12 ATS since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-3 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.

Free Basketball Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection has dead tie on consensus today, with Boston and Orlando their two best plays.

Merry Christmas from 3Daily Winners

We at 3Daily Winners wish everyone the best on this special holiday and nothing but happiness and good cheer to you. Here is a Christmas Story.

The Three Skaters


In the faraway land of Holland, a baker sadly closed up his shop. He carried a worn sack with a few loaves of bread. Not many people came into the bakery that day, because times were hard and people did not have extra money for fresh bread. The baker had to bring home the leftovers so that they would not go to waste.
"Maybe I can make a nice bread pudding with these loaves," said the baker to himself. "It would be a shame not to use such delicious bread." The baker walked off into the cold, gray afternoon.

The baker's mind drifted to visions of his family. He pictured them all warm and snug by the fireplace, waiting for his arrival. He knew his wife would be a little disappointed with the sales at the bakery, but she would take the loaves of bread and cheerfully make the best of them. He smiled beneath the scratchy wool of his scarf. His eyes watered, from the icy wind and from the joy that his family brought to him.

The baker blinked the tears away and kept walking. When he reached the frozen canal, he sat down upon a log and strapped his wooden skates to his feet. As he secured the straps, he looked down the icy canal. The land seemed to stretch out endlessly before him. The air was crisp and the wind was bitter. The baker shivered and pulled his scarf higher on his face.

About a half-mile down the canal, the baker could see the farmer coming toward him. Soon he was joined by the farmer, who was also his neighbor. He, too, carried a sack. The two men greeted each other quietly and began skating together. Their skates soon fell into a rhythm.

"Have you been to the market today?" asked the baker.

The farmer nodded slowly. "Not much luck, though," he said.

"Same here. I still have a few loaves of bread," said the baker. He turned his gaze down the canal and continued to skate.

The farmer also could not wait to be home with his family. He looked forward to warming himself by the fire and playing with his children. His youngest child, Lily, had been ill, and the farmer wanted to get her something special at the market. But he did not sell many apples and had to bring a sack of them back home.

"Perhaps a nice apple pie will warm little Lily and make her smile," said the farmer to himself.

Times were tough for everyone. It was clear that both men did not need to say much to each other. They knew exactly how the other one felt.

As they continued to skate, the clouds grew thicker. The two men wanted to get home as quickly as possible. Soon they came to where another canal met up with theirs. They could see another figure coming toward them from the other canal. With a wave, they saw that it was their friend, the weaver.

"Hello, gentlemen," said the weaver. He skated right up to the farmer and the baker. They greeted the weaver warmly, and they all began to skate together. Now the sound of the three men's skates was all that could be heard on the smooth ice of the canal.

The weaver had also come from the market, where he had been trying to sell the beautiful blankets he had woven. Since no one had any extra money to spend, the weaver left the market with all of his blankets and no money. He tried to keep his spirits up, however, by taking pride in knowing that his blankets were beautifully crafted and woven out of love.

"It will be wonderful when we get home and out of the chill," said the weaver, trying to start some cheerful conversation.

The other two men just nodded their heads in agreement. Their thick scarves and the biting wind made it hard to talk to one another. They continued along the canal in silence. As they passed an abandoned farm, the weaver suddenly stopped skating. He turned his gaze toward the old rundown barn in the middle of the field. He thought he heard an unusual noise.

"Stop! Listen!" the weaver called to his companions.

The farmer and the baker quickly stopped. They returned to the spot where the weaver was standing.

The three men stood on the icy canal, staring at the old barn. Suddenly a slice of sunlight split through the clouds and shone brightly onto the barn. It was a most unusual sight!

"Listen. Do you hear that?" asked the weaver.

The farmer and the baker held their breath and listened. All at once, the three men heard the familiar sound of a baby crying. It seemed to be coming from the old barn, now cast in an eerie glow.

"It sounds like a child," said the farmer.

"But how could it be? That farm has been abandoned for years," said the weaver.

"Perhaps a lamb was left in the barn," said the baker. "It sounds like a lamb."

The three men heard the sound again and knew in an instant that it was not a lamb. It sounded, most definitely, like a child.

Without another word, all three men stepped off the ice and into the snow. They took off their skates and began walking toward the barn. As they reached the doorway, they could hear the baby's cries beginning to soften as the gentle sound of a mother's voice sang a soulful lullaby. The men opened the barn door without knocking. It was as if they knew that it was alright -- that whoever was inside wanted them to come in.

Inside the barn, thin beams of sunlight streamed through the holes in the roof and walls. There was not a lamb that had been abandoned by the barn's owner, but the scene inside the barn was most incredible.

In the center of the barn sat a young woman holding a newborn infant. She was singing the most beautiful and unusual lullaby. She stopped singing as she looked up at the men. Then she smiled.

The men could not help but smile shyly back at the new mother. They were very surprised that anyone was in the abandoned barn, but even more surprised to see a lovely young mother holding a newborn infant. The three men looked around the barn and saw a man raking hay in a stall. The man looked very tired. After a moment, he stopped his chore and addressed the three strangers.

"It's not much of a home, but we had nowhere else to go," he explained. "We are on our way to visit relatives. My wife had the baby before we could reach our destination."

The farmer, the baker, and the weaver all turned back to look at the mother and her newborn baby.

"Are your relatives expecting your arrival?" asked the weaver.

"Yes, but traveling will be difficult now with the infant. We can't stay here long, though. We have no food, and it is very cold and drafty inside this barn," the man said. He then finished raking a soft pile of hay and laid down a thin piece of cloth on top. Then the man walked over to the mother, took the baby, and placed it on its makeshift bed.

The mother and father gathered around the child. It was obvious to the men that the young family was happy despite their hardship. The man and woman looked lovingly at each other and their new baby.

The family scene touched the three men and, all at once, they took their items from their sacks and laid them on the floor near the child's bed. They smiled at the family, then quietly left the drafty barn. Without a word, the farmer, the baker, and the weaver walked through the snow to the edge of the canal. They bent down to put on their skates, then skated off once again.

Now all three of the men's sacks were empty. They did not seem concerned with coming home empty-handed, however. They felt in their hearts that what they had done was right. Once again, the only sound to be heard was their skates on the ice.

As he skated, the baker thought of his home. The mother and child reminded him of his wife and children waiting to see him walk through the door. He felt blessed knowing that they were safe and warm in their small, but cozy house.

The farmer's thoughts drifted to his sick daughter. How fragile and tiny she looked when he left her that morning, bundled up in her blanket. He thought of the newborn child and how fragile it looked in its young mother's arms. He said a blessing for the young family left alone in that old barn.

The weaver's prayers also went out to the mother and her child. He hoped that his handmade blankets would provide enough warmth and shelter for the family until they could continue on their journey.

The three men were so deep in thought that they did not notice their sacks getting heavier. Slowly each sack was filling, as if someone was dropping items into each one. But the men did not perceive the growing heaviness.

They did notice, however, that they were nearing the village where they all lived. A smile crossed each of their lips, because they knew that they would be home soon. It had been a truly strange, but amazing day.

As they reached the edge of town, the three men stepped off the ice. The crisp snow crunched under their skates. They still did not speak to one another. Each one took off his skates and slung them over his shoulders. Their sacks were quite full by this time, but still not one man made mention of it.

The farmer said good-bye to the baker and the weaver and headed toward his home. The baker and weaver also said their good-byes and parted company. It had been an unusual day, but neither the farmer, the baker, nor the weaver felt like talking. It was as if they all knew what the other one was thinking.

By the time the baker reached his front door, his sack was brimming and very heavy. He walked into his home and found his family just as he had pictured, all huddled around the warmth of the fireplace. When they saw him come through the door, all the children shouted at once, "Daddy! Daddy! Daddy's home!"

His wife walked over to the baker and gave him a warm hug. That is when she noticed the sack he was carrying. "Oh, dear! What a day at the shop!" she said, her eyes wide with wonder.

The baker put down the sack. Immediately cookies and cakes, hams and bread, teas and spices, fruits and vegetables came flooding out! There were also wrapped presents for everyone. The whole family began to cry with delight.

"Oh, Daddy! How wonderful!" cried the baker's daughter.

"Dear, we are blessed!" cried the baker's wife.

The baker had no idea how his sack got so full with such wonderful gifts, but he knew it must have something to do with the amazing scene in the barn.

That night the baker and his family had the best dinner ever. Not only did they have enough for that night, but for forty nights after!

When it was time for bed, the baker gathered the children in front of the fire and told them the amazing story of the family in the old barn on the abandoned field. He described how the sunlight broke through the clouds and shone only on the little barn where they
were staying.

"It was a wonderful sight, indeed!" he told the children.

After he put his family to bed with full bellies and wondrous visions in their heads, the baker sat up and looked out the window. He thought of the farmer and the weaver. He knew that their night was as joyous and amazing as his had been. There was no need to wonder.

For all three men had witnessed the same miracle. They all gave everything they had out of pure generosity and the goodness of their hearts. And even though the winter winds howled outside, it was the warmest night the farmer, the baker, and the weaver had ever had. -- Adapted by Lynne Suesse

©2006 Publications International, Ltd.

December 23 Wagering Action

Officially we won the one play we put out there on the Top Trend, but the system was also a winner, just missing our qualifier to be deemed worthy. For Tuesday we have a system certainly worthy at 85.1 percent and it will take gumption to play considering what NBA team it is. As long as we keep finding perfect trends, we’ll keep riding them and have another in college basketball this evening. Once again we’ll look at how the LCC view the Poinsettia Bowl. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 10 or more points, like Oklahoma City, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent like Atlanta, after they have played under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 23-4 ATS, 85.1 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Niagara is 9-0 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 12 bettors on Boise State and 10 on TCU in tonight’s bowl game. No surprisingly, a total of 10 bettors are riding the Broncos on the money line.

Analyzing Revenge Betting in the NBA

In one of the most famous revenge situations of all time. I imagine everybody who read the classic literature book, Moby Dick, believed Captain Ahab would surely get the best of the big white whale upon their second confrontation. Well, maybe you were like me in high school English class and didn’t wade through all 135 chapters of Herman Melville’s novel. While I don’t know his last name, I would like to thank Cliff, the creator of CliffsNotes which helped me not only get through Moby Dick (yes, the book rivals the size of the whale) but also MacBeth and Les Miserables.

Revenge is one of the most-used, and most talked about, handicapping angles in any sport. While it is widely assumed that having revenge is a worthwhile reason to wager on a team, that isn’t always the case. There are many times there is no advantage whatsoever.

In examining revenge, we need to look at basic angles first. To have revenge, you obviously had to have lost your previous match-up. For this exercise, I am only looking at same season revenge. I am not a big believer in previous season revenge unless it involved the playoffs or perhaps a unique rivalry or game. Chicago losing to Miami in the 2005-06 playoffs and then opening up the season at Miami where they bludgeoned them 108 to 66 is a good example. Or Cleveland after losing in the championship to San Antonio and going to San Antonio last year and winning outright in their opening rematch. A game to mark your calendar is on Christmas when the two teams from last year’s NBA Finals meet for the first time, the Lakers versus the Celtics. You have to believe the Lakers have that day circled.

We start with as basic of revenge there is with no qualifiers other than the two teams have already met one time in the current regular season. Going back to the start of the 2005 NBA season, same-season revenge after losing the previous game shows the team with revenge only winning outright 46.9% of the time. However, what is most important to us is covering the point spread which the team who lost the previous meeting did 51.8% of the time in their next rematch. It is an edge, albeit a very small one. The Over/Under numbers are not discernible with the Over happening 49.9% of the time. Incidentally, none of our revenge game situations include playoff games. That’s a completely different animal.

There is no difference if the rematch happens to be the third meeting of the year. Non-conference teams will meet twice during the regular season doing a home and home split. Teams in the same conference and the same division will meet a total of four times with evenly split on location. Teams in the same conference but not the same division will meet three to four times in the same year.

A common handicapping belief proven to be wrong by the following statistics is to generalize saying revenge between two teams from the same division is powerful. Over the past three seasons it hasn’t been as the team who lost the first match only covers the spread 48.0% of the time in the second contest.

If the two teams are from the same conference but NOT the same division, the revenging team covers 54.6% of the time. Now we are starting to get an edge worth considering. Non-conference same-season rematches have a 54.5% lean to going over the posted Total.

Let’s start doing some drilling down to see if there are some profitable revenge situations. From now on, these games are not number specific but that they are occurring in the same season. First we determine where the location of the previous and current games are. Of the four possible combination of locations, the only one that has any type of edge to it is if the first game was played away from the losing teams’ home arena and now the next meeting is also on the road. Here we have a very nice 59.1% advantage by playing on the revenging away team, a 152-105 three year record against the spread. The Over has a nice edge at 146-115, 55.9%. That mark improves to 61.9% ATS and 56.8% O/U if the game is a non-divisional one.

Where a team with revenge played their previous game directly before the rematch can have a huge influence on the side and the total of the game. If the first meeting was on the road and the rematch is also on the road and our team seeking revenge just played a home game, they cover the point spread 64.0% of the time, 96-54, with the total going over 63.4% of the time in their rematch. That record improves to 40-19, 67.8%, ATS and 40-20, 66.7% OU, if our team lost that previous home game before their return game.

A strong qualifier to always look at is what team was favored in the first meeting of the two teams. In the rematch, is the same team favored? Does one team have that much of a talent-edge to be favored on the road?

Sticking with non-divisional conference teams, a 65.2% winning trend is to back an away dog with revenge if the previous contest between the two teams was also away for the team who lost originally and the losing team was an underdog in both games. This carries an 88-47 record along with an O/U mark of 78-59, 56.9%.

How about the third meeting of the season and our team has lost the previous two games? The terrible “double revenge”! Once again, there is an edge if our team is playing on the road. However, it is just a 56.4% advantage. Make the revenging team’s previous game at home and we move up to 61.1% along with a 56.5% Over bias. In triple revenge, keeping the exact same scenario as our 61.1% trend previously, we get results of 65.0 winners in both the revenging team and playing the Over.

A good trend to keep your eyes out for is when you have a home favorite that won the previous match-up but failed to cover against the spread. While they win straight-up at a nice 109-34 pace in the follow-up contests, they only cover the spread in 39.0% of the games over the past three seasons. And, if they are more than a nine-point favorite, their coverage rate falls to 33.3%.

The turnaround time can be a big factor. If two conference teams met four days ago or fewer, and the road team lost the previous match-up, the Under is a 73.1% winner! Not only does the team have revenge but the other team’s plays and offensive tendencies are fresh in their minds.

Revenge can be good. However, it is best to know which spots are valid winners and which are nothing more than a hopeful situation full of hot air.


Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority is frequent contributor.

The Day after Gambling Gods get Even

It was an awful day for 3Daily Winners and it sent the tone for myself, Paul Buck and many other members of the LCC. Jason was one of the rare birds who had the foresight yesterday, hitting all six of his NFL underdog plays.

Today we supply the results of the LLC consensus for the last Monday Night encounter. The prefect trend returns for a college hoops contest and we have a basketball system that is 79.8 percent, which just misses our cut off of rated plays, but is still worthy of consideration. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST favorites of 10 or more points like Oklahoma, after nine or more consecutive wins, with a win percentage 80 percent or higher, playing a marginal losing team like Rice (40% to 49%). Since 2004, this system is 31-8 against the spread.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Wright State is 8-0 ATS in road games after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) For the last Monday Night football game of the season, Chicago has 12 members from the Left Coast Connection in their corner and 11 for Green Bay.

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Packers Underdogs in Windy (Frigid) City

Who would’ve guessed Green Bay’s defense would struggle more than its offense in its first season without Brett Favre since 1992? The Packers are on pace to allow more than 400 points for first time since 1986, and in their nine defeats this season they’ve yielded an average of 24.2 points per game.

While most Cheeseheads have moved on about the trade of Favre to the Jets, they can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for what has been a miserable 5-9 season. Rodgers has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards and 23 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. It all adds up to a quarterback rating better than 90, ranking him in the top 10 among those with at least 10 starts. He’s had eight multiple touchdown games and two multiple interception games. Green Bay comes into this contest having covered 12 of last 16 NFC North division contests.

But it takes one hand to count how many times both Rodgers, and his defense, clicked in the same game. One of those was Nov. 16 when Green Bay blew out Chicago, 37-3, at Lambeau Field, creating a three-way tie atop the NFC North along with Minnesota. Rodgers completed 23 of 30 attempts for 227 yards and hooked up with Greg Jennings and Donald Lee for touchdowns, and the Packers defense allowed only 234 yards and a second-quarter field goal. They even scored without Rodgers on the field, with defensive end Jason Hunter returning a Kyle Orton fumble 54 yards for a touchdown.

The Packers are 0-4 SU and ATS since that victory, and the Bears are 3-1 since the loss, with three covers. Chicago’s come-from-behind 27-24 overtime win over New Orleans at Soldier Field last Thursday night was clutch and kept alive its playoff hopes. After tying the game with two seconds left in regulation, Robbie Gould won it with a 35-yard field goal. At 8-6, head coach Lovie Smith’s team can tie Minnesota for the division lead with a win, but needs to win this week and next and have the Vikings lose to win the division crown. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more.

The biggest red flag for the Bears in 2008 has been their pass defense, which was also a problem area a year ago. Chicago has allowed 3,271 yards through the air and rank ahead of only Kansas City, San Diego, the New York Jets and Seattle in the category. This could be diminished since temperatures are expected to be brutally cold in the Windy City, making the ability to overcome the elements for each player a bigger story.

Bookmaker.com has Chicago has four-point favorites, down from opening six, with the total having plummeted like the temperature from 45 to 40. The Bears lead 89-80-6 and haven’t been swept by the Packers since 2003. Though the weather will be a factor, Green Bay is 11-2 OVER after three or more consecutive losses and the Bears are 17-4 OVER as a home favorite.

Green Bay covers if they can control the Chicago running attack, which can be a stretch for the 26th ranked run defense. If the Packers are to do anything defensively, they must limit the Bears rushing game. The Green Bay defense really needs to find out if they have any linebackers that can blitz, as their defensive backfield has been getting torched having to play man coverage for such extended periods. Besides at 5-9, why not try and at least spoil a rivals playoff chances. The Pack is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Chicago covers if their physical offensive line gets a push on the Green Bay defensive line. In the prior meeting, this didn’t happen. Assuredly coach Smith and the staff won’t make the decision to stop the Packers passing exclusively and got pushed around for 200 rushing yards like last time. Chicago has to stop the run first and see how Rodgers reacts in the bitter cold conditions on the road. The Bears are still in the playoff hunt, they must bring the emotion or they could fall to 5-12 ATS at Soldier Field against the Green and Gold.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on division favorites of seven or less points that have won two games consecutively. Over the last 19 years, this system is 26-8 ATS, 76.4 percent.

NFL Sunday 3Daily Winners Thoughts

A nice comeback had us 2-0 yesterday and we’ll look to nail all three today, starting with a system that is 81.2 percent the last decade. The Top Trend considers how Mike Holmgren’s team will fare in his last home game as their coach in Seattle. Kendall returns being the best NFL bettor we know with his best play for Free! Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST teams like Miami after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games, with a win percentage between 60% to 75%, playing a team with a losing record like Kansas City. This system is solid 26-6, 81.2 percent since 2008.

Free Football Trend -2) The Seattle Seahawks are is 0-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) Kendall of the Left Coast Connection is 41-21-1 ATS in the NFL and is playing Tampa Bay as his biggest play on the NFL board.

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Early Football Line Moves

The early Line Moves continue in the NFL after a brutal 0-3 day on the sides, lowering the record to 13-15, 46.4 percent. The Totals did well with 2-1 record, raising season record to 26-19-1, 57.7 percent. I’ll include last week’s college bowl information. South Florida has come down from 14 to 11 points this week and I added one more game from looking into changes close to game time as I said I would.

NFL Sides
Tennessee -1 to +1
Chicago -6 to -4

NFL Totals
Mia/ KC 42 to 40
Cin/Cleve 35 to 32
Atl/Minn 47 to 43.5
Carol/NYG 40 to 37.5
GB/Chic 44 to 41

Bowl Game Sides
TCU Pick to -2.5
Notre Dame +2 to -1

Bowl Game Totals
TCU/Boise 48 to 46

That is all for the first seven bowl games.

A Full Saturday of Wagering Action

A rugged 0-2 day, let’s hope for a better day. I’ll pass along the betting trends of the LLC today in the early bowl games. The Top Trend looks at on of today’s participant’s and it’s not pretty. Today’s Best system is in college hoops and is 85.4 percent. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Arizona, when the line is +3 to -3, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off two or more consecutive home wins. The Wildcats are in negative situation, facing a system that is 23-4 ATS, 85.4 percent.

Free Football Trend -2) Fresno State is 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.

Free Football Selections -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus looks this way about today’s bowls. Wake Forest has 58 percent backing, Memphis 77 percent, Fresno State 66 percent and Arizona and BYU 50-50.

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Special Night in Big D

The Dallas Cowboys have yet to secure a playoff position and will play their third straight contest against a fully-loaded defensive team, built to stop any offense. But as we have seen in recent weeks, this Dallas defense is the equal of any in the NFL and will have a great deal to say about the last regular season game ever to by played by the Cowboys in Texas Stadium. If Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS) has any intention of making a real Super Bowl run, this becomes a contest they have to have.

While in many cities the closing of a stadium who be big news, in Dallas it is dwarfed by stories about Terrell Owens, his latest supposed feud with Tony Romo and Jason Witten and Jerry Jones calling out players questioning their toughness and than later retracting. Just another day in Big D.

What should be talked about is the Dallas defense, which has allowed 13.8 points per game since the bye week. Since being run over by for 200 yards by the Giants in New York, they have permitted only 68 yards per game and Dallas is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game.

The team wearing the black jersey’s won’t care about any of the nonsense, they just want to lineup, hit in the mouth, knock you upside the head and see who comes out on top.

Baltimore (9-5, 10-4 ATS) has the league’s second-ranked total defense (257.5 yards per game) and third-ranked scoring defense at 15.2 points a game. The Ravens bottled up Pittsburgh for most of the game, until they were unable to solve the Steelers 92-yard closing drive that resulted in a somewhat controversial touchdown, losing 13-9 with under a minute to play. Those kinds of losses can be devastating to a team and Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after a loss by six or less points over the last two seasons.

Quarterback Joe Flacco struggled against Pittsburgh last week, completing just 11 passes in a 13-9 loss, and has another tough matchup in Dallas. If anything, the play of the Cowboys defense, which has harassed quarterbacks for 53 sacks, including eight of Eli Manning, has at least kept the team in contention for the postseason. But as Flacco’s shown, he does not need to dominate from start to finish. He just needs to capitalize on one or two big plays and let his defense handle the rest. The Ravens have covered four of last five road games.

Bookmaker.com has Dallas as 4.5-point favorite with total of 38.5. This contest will be on the NFL Network starting at 8:15 Eastern.

Keys to the Game-
The Baltimore front seven is going to have to have a huge game. The Dallas running game isn’t as strong as it should be, but the behemoths they have are still capable of wearing down defenses in fourth quarter. Make their blocking schemes uncertain with speed and deception and keep the pressure on Romo to make miscues. Flacco seems to have hit the wall with the long season, as his mechanics have him missing high on passes. Work the passing game in shorter progression to build confidence, otherwise Ravens fall to 2-11 ATS as road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Dallas needs to feed off the emotion of the moment and jump on Baltimore, who would seem incapable of coming from behind with style of play. If Romo gets protection, the Birds secondary is damaged, meaning T.O. could keep quiet, at least for a moment with big plays. Running back Tashard Choice is running hard and effectively, give him the pigskin and the Cowboys close Texas Stadium with five straight wins and covers.

Running with the Bowls

Other sports journalists can whine about too many bowl games, sports bettors like us are just grateful for the chance of most action, with 34 sides and totals to consider over the next 20 days. The first four are available Saturday and plenty of tough decisions to made. Navy and Wake Forest start the festivities in Washington, D.C. Two bowl games will be offered in afternoon action, with 7-5 clubs squaring off against .500 teams. In the nitecap, Arizona and BYU matchup that could have a little more spice than your typical pre-Christmas contest. Take note that favorites before Dec.25 are 21-2 and 14-9 ATS.

EagleBank Bowl –ESPN 11:00 E
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS)

The bowl season starts in our nation’s capital without the usual bang, but with more of a whimper. It’s a rematch (any bowls worst nightmare) of Navy and Wake Forest from Sept. 27, when Navy pulled the 24-17 upset catching 17-points on the road. The Demon Deacons turned out to be vastly overrated and are just 13-24 ATS as a favorite. Wake Forest is 5-3 and 4-2 ATS in bowls.

The Navy’s top-rated running game deserves most of the attention at 294.7 yards per game, however many will be singing the praises of the defense off consecutive shutouts. The Midshipmen have been one of the best spread teams for a numbers of years and they are 18-5 ATS in all December games since 1992. A 6-7-1 bowl record is fair, but a 7-2 ATS mark will fatten a wallet.

Why to Watch and Wager:

This is the first time in 63 years Wake Forest is playing the same team twice in the season. You would believe revenge would be a big motivator for the Demon Deacons, who are 20-6 ATS vs. meager passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards a game. Navy’s defense has to feel pretty proud after hanging eight straight zeros on the scoreboard and not a touchdown scored on them in over nine quarters. Their must have been something about the letter “W” this season, with Wake 103rd in total offense, among five different universities with that letter that finished in the 100’s in total yards gained. The Middies are 17-5 ATS on the road versus poor offensive teams averaging 310 or less yards per game.

Bookmaker Line – Wake Forest -3, 43.5

New Mexico Bowl –ESPN 2:30 E
Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) vs Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS)

It was another disappointing campaign for Fresno State, who was the preseason favorite to win the WAC. The 105th ranked run defense took care of any hopes of the Bulldogs being extremely successful this season. Fresno State became a steady play against team this season at 2-10 ATS and is on a 1-9 ATS run as a favorite. Fresno State is 10-7 and 6-5 ATS in the postseason, thou 0-4 ATS as faves.

Colorado State won its last two games to become bowl eligible after two losing seasons. First year coach Steve Fairchild’s team should have a chance if the Rams can gear up the running game, being 15-3 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. "We still have a lot of work to do here at Colorado State, in all areas of our program, but this is obviously a step in the right direction, and a tremendous reward for our 17 seniors, who've worked extremely hard during their time here in Fort Collins," Fairchild said. Colorado State is 1-4 ATS as a bowl underdog to go with 4-7 record.

Why to Watch and Wager:

Colorado State averages 263.3 yards passing per game with senior Billy Farris at the controls. Fresno State is weaker against the run than the pass, yet lacks playmakers in the secondary with a FBS-low four interceptions on the season. The Bulldogs roll over like a puppy after a spread loss like they suffered in last game to Boise State and are odorous 1-15 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. If Fresno State gets the running game in order, they should have no problems slugging it out in the trenches against Rams run defense that was allowed 185.7 yards per game, which is ranked 100th.

Bookmaker Line – Fresno State -3, 60

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl –ESPN2, 4:30 E
South Florida (7-5, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Memphis (6-6, 5-5-1 ATS)

South Florida, based in Tampa, will be very close to home in inaugural St. Petersburg, FL Bowl. The Bulls never came together as a team predicted to win the Big East title this season, as they were undermined by -7 turnover margin, in losing four of last five. The South Florida defense did its best, finishing 13th in the country in yards allowed at 291.1 per game. South Florida is 23-15 ATS in non-conference action.

Memphis made another late season push to finish 6-6, winning three of last four contests. The Tigers tamed Tulane 45-6 to have a chance to be invited to a bowl; however are 2-15 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game. Neither team has played in many bowls, though South Florida has an excuse being a FBS member only since 2001. The Bulls are 1-2 SU and ATS and Memphis is 3-2 all-time failing to cover as underdog on both occasions.

Why to Watch and Wager:

It’s hard to say if coach Tommy West is getting the max out of the Memphis program, yet with his continued back luck at the quarterback position, just earning a bowl invite is darn good. West teams have had a penchant for playing well against good defenses like South Florida , with 9-1 ATS in road games vs. defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game. The Bulls have to travel all of 32 miles to the home of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for this bowl encounter. Quarterback Matt Grothe had a fairly disappointing senior season, trying to do too much with not much help from receivers who couldn’t get open. This is his one last chance for redemption in front of a largely partisan USF crowd. Check out defensive tackle George Selvie, who will likely go into NFL draft as a junior. After scoring only seven points in snowy and wind-swept West Virginia in last contest, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS after scoring nine points or less last game.

Bookmaker Line – South Florida -11, 55

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl-ESPN 8:00 E
BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS vs Arizona (7-5 SU & ATS)

BYU is probably mildly unhappy about not winning the conference, yet backers of the Mormon University always enjoy making the trek to Sin City. This will be their fourth consecutive trip to this bowl, thus the enthusiasm of the players is a question mark. The Cougars 17th ranked offense will match wits with the 21st ranked Arizona defense. What ended up costing BYU an undefeated season was a defense that was too slow against faster teams. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS since October.

The Wildcats only had one real bad defensive game against Oregon, allowing 55 points, otherwise were solid. Arizona is a field goal favorite with quarterback Willie Tuitama leading a balance attack averaging over 400 yards a game, which is 3-10 ATS in that role in non-conference play. Interesting to note, the Mountain West was 6-1 and 4-3 ATS in regular season meetings. The ‘Cats are in first bowl since 1998.

Why to Watch and Wager:

BYU has won eight in a row at Boyd Stadium, including two in a row over Pac-10 opponents. This should be the motivating factor for quarterback Max Hall and the offense to play well. The Cougars are 13-3 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 310 yards or fewer yards per game, nevertheless this will be their third consecutive contest away from Provo and they are just 4-20 ATS after a two-game road trip. Count the ‘Cats as excited to be in a bowl game and this might be a prickly encounter as theses two schools have faced off the previous two seasons, splitting the contests. Coach Mike Stoops saved his job for the time being and hopes his team is ready, since they 3-8 and 4-7 ATS away from Tucson.

Bookmaker Line – Arizona -3.5, 59.5