AFC Title Game Info

In today’s unstable world and even shakier economy, we are being bombarded with messages about “thinking outside the box” or embracing change to whether thru the worst of times anyone has seen in decades. Yet when it comes to our sports clichés, we accept them like old tales - “feed a cold, starve a fever.” The AFC Championship game brings one of oldies but goodies that everyone from any age has heard, “It’s hard to beat the same team three times.”

Even before the end of Pittsburgh’s win over San Diego and the clock striking midnight Sunday, if you had a dollar for every time that expression was used on the various sports stations, come last Monday morning, you had enough money to eat lunch out all week and not on the dollar menu either. Even the participants were beating the drum. "It's hard to beat a team three times in a row in a season,'' Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor stated.

The next installment of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh AFC North rivalry will to be the most important meeting in the history of the series. The winner heads to warm and sunny Tampa Bay in two weeks for Super Bowl XLIII.

Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in two hard-fought; tightly contest games, by scores of 23-20 and 13-9 respectively. In both instances, the Ravens out-rushed the Steelers by a fairly generous margin (107.5 vs 80 yards), but came up short in the passing game, which could make the difference again. Ben Roethlisberger averaged 180 passing yards against Baltimore’s defense in two meetings compared to rookie Joe Flacco coming in at exactly 50 yards less at 130. Ultimately, this may once again be the deciding factor in who will represent the AFC west Florida.

The last time division rivals met in a conference championship was 1999 season, when fourth seed Tennessee traveled to Jacksonville, who was the top seed in the AFC and whipped them 33-14, completing a three-game sweep that season, which led to Super Bowl appearance.
Baltimore has had unfathomable year, winning and covering 11 of its last 13 games, thanks to a good running game, a passing game that makes just enough completions to matter and a defense that leaves black and blue marks so deep, it looks like a tattoo even weeks later. The hard hitting and ball hawking nature shows itself in the turnover margin. Since losing three in a row to start the year 2-3, Baltimore is an unimaginable +24, including a +7 differential in the playoffs.

Even having the double revenge angle, this will a difficult assignment for the Ravens. Begin with this being their 17 consecutive game, as they were forced to take unwanted bye in Week 2, no thanks to Hurricane Ike. No less than eight defensive players will appear on this week’s injury report, though all are expected to play, how well is another matter. For cliché purposes, games are won on the scoreboard, not on the stat sheet, yet in two playoff games, the Ravens have been out-gained 667-397. Nevertheless, they will arrive in the Steel City 11-2 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.

Pittsburgh comes in as healthy as they have been all season, with Willie Parker fresh, Big Ben showing no affects of concussion and the league’s best defense as ferocious as ever. Bettors flocked to Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, taking the Steelers from 4.5-point favorites to current six, with total of 34. The Steelers know exactly what to expect from the Ravens and understand ball protection will be tantamount. In Pittsburgh’s four losses, they had three or more turnovers in three defeats and were 13-1 and 10-4 ATS in all other games. Pittsburgh is 38-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Pittsburgh is just 9-8 ATS as home favorite in the playoffs, hoping to advance to second Super Bowl in four years. The higher seed has advanced to the big game in five of the last six years (4-2 ATS) in the AFC title game, with the lone exception being a sixth seed (Pittsburgh in 2005), just like Baltimore is.

What you Need to Know

Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have to do virtually the same thing. They both will want to run and control the line of scrimmage. This sets up play-action passing game and each will be unafraid to take deep shots down the field. Because of the similarities, the difference could be the experienced player under center.

Both defenses are menacing and will want to funnel the action towards their strengths, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis for Baltimore and James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh. Will the road finally wear out the Ravens?

Key System- In the Conference Finals, Play Against any team this is an underdog, if they were an underdog in last game. (20-12 ATS)