Betting the Best in the NBA

Recently had a discussion with a fellow NBA sports bettor, touching on the variety of different ways of looking at games and situations to find the best way to show a profit. This is a hard sport to grind out wins anyways and if you are resistant to change, you are doomed for failure betting this sport.

Part of our talk was whether it was really a good idea to bet on the best teams in the NBA. We discussed the number of points oddsmakers would add on popular or winning teams, thus eliminating any value. Though we were both in agreement, when one of these teams is hot, it is ridiculous to be on the sidelines watching a top level club roll up five or more spread covers, waiting for them to lose.

After getting off the phone, the thought occurred, what about tracking the spread records of NBA teams based on opponent’s performance. In looking at the standings, I broke the winning percentages down into three categories:

61 percent or high (Good Teams)
40 to 60 percent (Average Teams)
39 percent or lower (Bad Teams)

What I was looking for is how the best teams in the NBA played against various levels of competition against the spread. Ideally, my first thought was to find the opposing team’s record at the time of game played, to have a static method of reviewing them. Not being able to find such numbers without going game by game, cross-referencing each contest, decided to use current standings, which ultimately is likely a better barometer, since all teams go through hot and cold spells. This does create a moving target of sorts as teams could move from one category to the next, altering records. In the end, based on complete schedule, it would all work out.

The Orlando Magic at the moment have the best spread record in the NBA at 27-12 ATS. Despite having the third-best overall record in the NBA at 31-8, they have not receiving much publicity, with the Lakers, Boston and LeBron James and Cleveland dominating most of the headlines. What is impressive about the Magic’s season is how consistent they have been against teams from all levels against the spread.

6-3 ATS - 61 percent or high
10-6 ATS - 40 to 60 percent
10-4 ATS - 39 percent or lower

The Cleveland Cavaliers have the best record in the league at 30-7 and second best mark versus the number at 26-11. The Cavs have been crushing bad teams with 10-3 ATS record and are 11-7 ATS against average or mid-level teams. What stands out is how few games they have played against the best competition. Cleveland have only had five games against teams with 61 percent or higher win percentage (4-1 ATS) and though they have done very well, it will be intriguing to watch what they do going forward.

The Boston Celtics had a recent dry spell in losing six of eight, yet have not been as domineering as last season as champs. Boston is .500 facing teams from the top two tiers and 8-7 ATS versus the poorer teams in the NBA, hardly a good wager.

The majority of better teams continue to be in the Western Conference, but that also means more wars to have to fight thru. The Los Angeles Lakers have the top record in their conference at 31-7 and continue to have oddsmakers pile numbers on them, which is why they are 18-20 ATS. The Lakers level of interest on nightly basis shows up in this exercise. When facing top competitors that can bring out the best in them, L.A. is 7-4 ATS. When playing ordinary clubs they are 8-7 ATS, however the dullards of the NBA bore the Lakers and it shows with 4-10 spread mark if they take on teams with 39 percent or lower win percentage.

Though San Antonio defeated the Lakers the other night, they at this point of the season are no longer an elite club. Before giving the current results, I’ll throw out the caveat of not having full team together early and Manu Ginobili still doesn’t look like the same player of a few years ago (my guess is he never will be) which has hurt the Spurs. Nevertheless, a 2-8 ATS mark against the best the NBA has to offer is more Memphis-like than San Antonio. Where the Spurs have done their best work is cleaning up on the bottom of the barrel with 10-4 ATS record versus bad teams.

Though Denver and New Orleans are still very solid clubs, they have deficiencies. The Nuggets are 6-8 ATS playing top tier teams and New Orleans is finding being the hunted, rather than the hunter much more challenging at 16-18-1 ATS overall and 7-8 ATS taking on the best.

These figures will change as the season moves along, yet is a good method to follow David Stern’s moneymakers, when taking on NBA teams of all abilities.