Sunday NFL Wagering Outlook

Philadelphia at New York

It was talked about quite a bit last week how DC Jim Johnson trusts his safeties and he will lean on them again to stop New York. He’ll walk them up to be the eighth man in the box, unlikely to fear the Giants receivers on anything other than short or medium routes. Forcing the G-Men into second or third and long will be foundation of defense for Philadelphia. The Eagles offensive line for the most part was stout against Minnesota last week; they can expect to see almost anything from DC Steve Spagnuolo, who will want Donovan McNabb jumpy el pronto. Note to coach Reid - Running the ball helps win games as you are seeing, do so with desire and you move to 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and might grab upset.

If the Giants expect to make another run at consecutive Vince Lombardi trophies, they have to do what they did in the first game at Philadelphia. The Giants used domineering running game and controlled Brian Westbrook. New York has been out-rushed by the Eagles in seven of last eight meetings, accounting for 3-4 record. The offensive line has to keep Eli Manning vertical, as New York has to take some deep shops to Domenik Hixon to loosen Philly secondary. Expect Derrick Ward to be a bigger part of the passing game out in the flat to force Philadelphia secondary to account for him and possible create a missed assignment on Giants receivers. New York is fully rested and 7-1 ATS off a loss.

Road teams have been the hot bet of late in Divisional Round playoff games with 11-1 ATS mark, including both winners yesterday.

San Diego at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh’s needs couldn’t be any more noticeable. Start the running game with Willie Parker, to soften up San Diego front, which eases blitzes on Roethlisberger to throw the ball. Defensively, find and contain Darren Sproles, making the Bolts attack one-dimensional. The Chargers passing game was not impressive last week, with a gimpy Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson taken out of the game. No way San Diego wins without greater efficiency from all its passing game. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in the playoffs.

Philip Rivers has developed into a first rate NFL quarterback, by making better reads and protecting the ball under heavy pressure. No longer the hot-headed, sometimes out of control signal caller, his more even-tempered demeanor has helped his team to stay focused on what mattered late in the season, winning. Sproles has been a life-saver with L.T. injured, but he has to protect the pigskin with Pittsburgh’s aggressive defenders trying to pry the ball free. DC Ron Rivera has the Chargers playing more to their strengths, going full tilt and could use a couple of turnovers to turn the game in their favor. San Diego has covered 75 percent of their games as underdogs of late.

Teams like Pittsburgh that won their last game by 14 or more points playing first game in the postseason are 21-31-4 ATS. (Though 3-0 this year)