NFC Title Game Preview

Since adopting the 12-team playoff format in 1990, the National Football Conference has been a button-down affair. Last year the fifth seeded New York Giants were the lowest seed ever to make the NFC Championship game, being the first ever to be below a three seed to do so. This year, the NFC looks like a NCAA regional basketball bracket which has been loaded with upsets, as No. 4 Arizona will play host to No. 6 Philadelphia, with the winner advancing to the Super Bowl, unfathomable.

The Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs is hard enough to believe, but playing for the right to be NFC champions, it’s time to call the Ripley’s people. Against Atlanta two weeks ago, Arizona hosted its first playoff game since moving to the desert over 20 years ago and now this!

Why do the Cardinals suddenly have better than snow balls chance in Scottsdale to win this contest, considering they lost to Philadelphia by 28 on Thanksgiving night and were wiped out at New England 47-7 less then a month ago? Start with the quarterback Kurt Warner, who raised his record to 7-2 (4-4-1 ATS) in the postseason with upset of Carolina. Warner is the wily vet this team turns to for his experience. Coach Ken Whisenhunt deserves a 20-foot cactus size amount of credit, back from his days with Pittsburgh, for knowing you have to run to win in the playoffs and letting the past go, reinserting Edgerrin James. The 71 carries the last two weeks keeps defenses from just rushing Warner to stop the Cardinals prolific passing game. One defense, Arizona now looks like, well Philadelphia and has forced a dozen turnovers in last three games, with opponents averaging just 74 yards per game rushing in this stretch. The Cardinals have this unlikely home game, where they are 7-2 and 6-3 ATS this season.

If your surprised to see Arizona here, how about the Eagles? After tying Cincinnati and being bulldozed by Baltimore 36-7, Philadelphia had a short week to prepare for Arizona for Turkey Day night game. Donovan McNabb was benched and looked finished in Philly and though the Eagles coaches would never admit it, likely the only reason McNabb was not benched against Arizona was because they could not put in offense for backup Kevin Kolb on a short week. That game became the turning point as McNabb found a rhythm and the offense started to click. Coach Andy Reid went back to basics, relying on offensive line and Brian Westbrook and started running the ball, not worrying if every running play worked. The offense gelled, McNabb’s confidence and accuracy returned and everything fell into place. The Eagles defense has been almost impregnable in last six weeks, surrendering 11 points a game.

It is back to the road favorite role for Philadelphia, with the opening line showing them as three-point favorites, just like they were in wild card win over Minnesota. Since that time, Bookmaker.com has moved them to four-point play with total of 47. The Eagles are trying to become the third team in four years to win three consecutive road games in the postseason to make it to the Super Bowl. Philly is 12-12 ATS the last four seasons as road favorites. This will be Philadelphia’s fifth appearance in the NFC title game since 2002 and they are 1-3 and 2-2 ATS. The Eagles are 19-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game.

Arizona will of course be playing the “no respect” card this week, being home underdogs, which should provide additional fuel. Since moving to Glendale, the Cardinals have enjoyed a much better home field advantage and are 3-1 SU and against the spread on the receiving end of points under Whisenhunt. They are 28-12 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game.

No matter the outcome, history will be made, either the Cards as the lowest home seed to make the Super Bowl or the Eagles the lowest seed ever from the NFC.

What you Need to Know

For Philadelphia to win, they need to be physical with Arizona receivers, especially Larry Fitzgerald, trying to throw off timing of routes. Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter, must run the ball to setup passing offense. On defense, Jim Johnson knows the way to get Warner off his game is by pressure; he will certainly try to bring the heat.

Arizona has stuffed two outstanding running teams in Atlanta and Carolina and needs the trifecta to travel to Tampa. The defensive front has been terrific and has set the table for bad throws by opposing quarterbacks. The Cards O-Line has to win first down to keep Warner out of third and long, when the Eagles will fly around on defense.

Key System- Play Against any team that knocks off the defending Super Bowl champions if their next game is not in the Super Bowl. (9-1 ATS)