BCS Championship Wagering Preview

Finally! College football fans and football bettors have had to wait over a month for this day to arrive, the playing of the BCS national championship game. Along the way, we watched the Pac-10 surprise us, the Big Ten disappoint (again) and the elite of the Big 12 under whelm. We’ve listened to ESPN analysts give us mounds of information and been forced to stomach Dr. Lou and have been amazed at how little the Fox crew knows about college football. But none of that matters now, because Florida and Oklahoma are about to settle everything (we hope) on the field of play.

While the merits of one team having a shot for BCS title can be discussed vehemently, nobody can realistically argue these are not the two hottest teams to end the regular season. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow promised all of us after losing at home to Mississippi 31-30, nobody would play harder (You didn’t need YouTube to view this a thousand times) and he and his teammates made good on that promise as the Gators won last nine games by 36.4 points per game.

Oklahoma also had to show resolve and even when they did, it almost wasn’t enough. The Sooners lost to Texas (as everyone dressed in burnt orange is quick to remind the world) and had to do something the rest of the season that would make stand out, while keep on winning. All they did was average a sick 59.8 points per game the rest of the season, including passing the Big 6 0 in last five games. If you really think about, if Oklahoma had won the rest of their games, but averaged say 45 points a game, they probably would have never passed Texas.

We all know defense wins championships, but the best guess here is both coaches are setting up speed bumps or road blocks, knowing full well their is little either can do other than to cause confusion to slow down the other’s offense. Florida is stellar 10-2 ATS and 7-0 ATS against teams scoring 34 or more points and Oklahoma is 8-0 ATS after scoring 50 or more points.

On the year, Florida technically had a tougher schedule, meeting 10 bowl teams, compared to eight for Oklahoma. The Gators were 9-1 and 8-2 ATS, winning by 31.4 points per games. The Sooners were 7-1 and 6-2 ATS, winning by 29 PPG.

One absolutely delicious aspect of this matchup is the differences in the conferences during the regular season. In looking strictly at play within the conferences (excluding league championship games) the contrast couldn’t be any more stark. The SEC had two teams that scored 275 or more points in conference action (Florida and Alabama), compared to the Big 12, which saw seven schools pass the same point total. The average total score of a Southeast Conference contest was just over 46 points, while the Big 12 was 68 total points on the nose.

Bookmaker.com opened this title game at Florida at -3 and 72. After the wagering public got a look at how the each conference did in the bowls, they have moved the Gators up to five points, with the total dwindling to 69.5.

At this point, it becomes a matter of “what if”. This year’s Heisman winner Sam Bradford has been stupid good since losing to Texas, with 25 touchdowns and ONE interception. Only Texas and TCU “held” Oklahoma to 35 points and each was known for being able to pressure the quarterback. If Florida creates pressure up front with a few sacks and general steady pressure, Bradford might not be as confident in the pocket. Otherwise, the Sooners are 8-1 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.

Florida is in a similar, yet different battle to win this encounter. The Gators three lowest rushing total games came against Miami-Fl., Ole Miss and Alabama, all games Florida had difficulties getting the offense going. As great as it is to see Tebow scurrying around and trying to bulldoze people over, all it really means is the running game is not working and his receivers are covered. Chances are Bob Stoops would love to see Tebow as Florida’s leading rusher in this game. The Gators need to run the ball first and are 6-0 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt and 8-0 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.

Oklahoma’s coach Stoops used to be known as “Big Game Bob”, however four BCS losses later, his reputation has been run aground and is 4-5 bowling, with only three covers. His counterpart Urban Meyer is 3-1 SU and ATS in bowls.

If we have learned anything from the BCS bowl games, it’s about starting after a long layoff. Texas, Penn State and Alabama were all late to the party, with the latter two never recovering and the Longhorns taking to the final seconds to secure victory. Conversely, a hot start propelled USC and Utah to relatively easy wins.

Since they started using bowl games to determine the national champions, only once has one conference won three in a row, which was the SEC in 1978-80, can Oklahoma prevent history from repeating?