Texas and Ohio State Wagering Preview

Considering the circumstances involved, tons of plot lines for the Fiesta Bowl with these two heavyweights. One of the issues with the BCS games spread out over several days, it can sway the opinion of the public in a hurry and cause even more confusion. Who didn’t think USC was as good as or better than any team in the country after pummeling Penn State for the first three quarters of the Rose Bowl. The very next day unbeaten Utah ambushed Alabama at their own game, beating them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in decisive 31-17 victory. That night and the next day, it made everybody stop and realize the Utes just beat a team that was 15 minutes away for playing for national title having led Florida 20-17 entering the final quarter of the SEC championship game. The general consensus was Utah should finish no worse than number two in the polls.

This brings us to Texas (11-1, 9-3 ATS), who is the next flavor in line trying to regain the trust of the public and restate their argument, that yes it was them who was wronged, since neither USC or Utah beat Oklahoma in the first place. The Longhorn coaches for sure and likely the players realize fellow Big 12 partners Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have failed to hold up their end of the bargain in bowls in making the argument the Big 12 was the big cheese this last football campaign.

Texas really needs to come out and obliterate Ohio State (10-2, 5-6 ATS) to get back in the front of people minds and hope Oklahoma losses to make their case even stronger, so Longhorns fans and the media can whine for weeks. If Colt McCoy and rest of his teammates play like teams of the past with a 7-1 ATS record after a win by 21 or more points, they should be in good shape.

If you think about it, Texas is in a very similar situation to the 2004 Auburn team that got left behind, with Oklahoma and USC playing in the BCS title game that season. Everyone assumed Auburn who to fighting mad to go pound Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Instead the Tigers controlled the game behind Jason Campbell and a stout defense, but never put Virginia Tech away and the Hokies scored late to cover the six-points in 16-13 loss. Though USC crushed Oklahoma 55-19 and some wondered why Auburn wasn’t chosen instead of the Sooners, the unimpressive performance in the Sugar Bowl prevented an uprising. Does the same fate await Texas?

The Longhorns are terrible bowlers. Texas is 8-16 ATS all-time and even worse 5-12 ATS as favorites. Bookmaker.com opened Mack Brown’s team at 11.5-point favorites and after much scrutiny, has seen them fall all the way down to eight points.

Are you old enough to remember when the Big Ten used to be revered as football conference? Like most of the major cities in the Rust Belt area, with declining population, high unemployment and other maladies, the Big Ten isn’t even mentioned in conversations about the top conference in college football. Ohio State has been swept up in those very conversations with its recent failures. Jim Tressel’s teams have failed to come up in more big games than A-Rod.

This is the Buckeyes big opportunity to repair some of the pride of the Scarlet and Gray. Nobody at all is talking about Ohio State, eerily similar to discussion this time of year about the Indians and the Reds. Coach Tressel has to hope this club can improve upon18-9 ATS record vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.

The Big Ten is abysmal 1-5 and 2-4 ATS in bowl games, with the Buckeyes the last lone hope for their tattered banner to wave somewhat proudly. The defense that allowed 13.1 points per game has to play at a level that most expected all season, not the one that was shredded by USC. The Buckeyes will have to make life hard on McCoy and hope they give just yards and not points. Terrelle Pryor will need the game of his young life finding receivers against a mediocre Texas secondary. Beanie Wells can be a big confidence builder if he can bust a few long runs. Ohio State is 2-7 ATS in last nine non-conference games.

Coach Brown will sell his team on jumping hard and fast on Ohio State, trying to give them that, “Oh no, not this again” feeling. If they can rush the passer and control Wells, they choke off the Buckeyes offense. Protecting McCoy is imperative and the receivers have to be prepared to take some big hits from linebackers and secondary that likes to smack people. Texas is 9-3 ATS in last 12 favorite roles.

The Fiesta Bowl has seen the underdog win and cover five of last seven, with Ohio State participating in two of those victories.