Baltimore at Tennessee (-3, 34)Kerry Collins started to look like a quarterback getting up in years late in the season. Maybe the break will recharge him, but against this Baltimore defense, that might be so easy, as road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 15-5 ATS in the playoffs. The Ravens held Tennessee to just 34 yards rushing in the earlier meeting and have to like their chances if they put up similar numbers, even on the road. This should be like prize fight and if Baltimore wants to knock off the top seed in the AFC, they must knock them out. On offense that means passing when you should run and vice versa. Ray Lewis and his teammates have a lot of confidence working and are 9-2 ATS off a win.
Tennessee has the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL, thus scoring first is a priority for Jeff Fisher’s club. It is imperative to establish some semblance of running game or short passes that are like runs to keep Baltimore from dictating defensive tempo. Otherwise, they could fall into same trap Miami did, even being a ball security team. Joe Flacco was serviceable last week; the Titans defensive job is to make feel like he was at University of Pittsburgh before transferring, unwanted. The mantra has to be -Frustrate Flacco. Though they seemingly didn’t care about losing to Indianapolis to close the season, being shutout is embarrassing and Tennessee is 8-2 ATS after losing by two touchdowns or more.
Tennessee has the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL, thus scoring first is a priority for Jeff Fisher’s club. It is imperative to establish some semblance of running game or short passes that are like runs to keep Baltimore from dictating defensive tempo. Otherwise, they could fall into same trap Miami did, even being a ball security team. Joe Flacco was serviceable last week; the Titans defensive job is to make feel like he was at University of Pittsburgh before transferring, unwanted. The mantra has to be -Frustrate Flacco. Though they seemingly didn’t care about losing to Indianapolis to close the season, being shutout is embarrassing and Tennessee is 8-2 ATS after losing by two touchdowns or more.
With the total at 34, Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last two seasons, but Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in the Volunteer state.
Arizona at Carolina (-9.5, 48.5)
Arizona at Carolina (-9.5, 48.5)
Though Arizona won big playoff game, Carolina has to make them feel very unwelcome traveling into the Eastern Time zone where the Cardinals are 2-19 and 7-14 ATS over the past six years. The Panthers can’t stroll into this divisional playoff game, they need to shake Arizona up quickly and have Kurt Warner wearing that frown he has when things are not going his way. Chances are Anquan Bolden will be limited at best, put your best corner, Chris Gamble on Larry Fitzgerald and create over the top help on his side. Arizona gained respect by stopping Atlanta’s running game, test to see how they perform against rested DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Cards are 1-4 ATS after allowing 90 or less yards rushing.
The most striking aspect of Arizona’s defensive effort last week was crisp tackling, something in short supply all season long. With Carolina averaging 194.8 yards per game rushing the last seven games, the Cardinals defense has to tackle even better. On offense, running the ball has proven to work, just keep up the effort, as the Panthers are nothing special in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Keep Edgerrin James with that big smile on his face and don’t be afraid to use the tight ends like last week to move the chains. The Cards players have to listen to vets like Warner and not be overwhelmed by the moment. If they fall behind by 10 or 14 points early, realize you have enough offense to overcome deficit. Arizona is 9-4 ATS as dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
The most striking aspect of Arizona’s defensive effort last week was crisp tackling, something in short supply all season long. With Carolina averaging 194.8 yards per game rushing the last seven games, the Cardinals defense has to tackle even better. On offense, running the ball has proven to work, just keep up the effort, as the Panthers are nothing special in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Keep Edgerrin James with that big smile on his face and don’t be afraid to use the tight ends like last week to move the chains. The Cards players have to listen to vets like Warner and not be overwhelmed by the moment. If they fall behind by 10 or 14 points early, realize you have enough offense to overcome deficit. Arizona is 9-4 ATS as dogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
Teams like Arizona that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years and won their first postseason contest, are 7-15-1 ATS in next outing.
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