Doug's Thoughts from The Angry Chair

It was extraordinarily peculiar to see four wild card road teams open up as favorites last week and all but Atlanta held, with a deluge of money coming late on Arizona which saw them close as -2 home favorites at most wagering outlets. What struck me was the Indianapolis Colts and their performance in losing to San Diego in overtime.

To a large degree, Indianapolis was a fraud of a team even manufacturing a nine-game winning streak to close the regular season. They started slowing with Peyton Manning coming back from medical procedures, not having him mentally or physically ready to start the season. They had Christmas well before Dec. 25, as Minnesota and Houston gave away certain victories with fool-hardy play.

Of the 12 wins the Colts managed, they were hardly dominating, winning eight by a touchdown or less. During the broadcast of the wild card game, it was brought up Tony Dungy has taken the Colts to seven straight playoffs in his seven seasons in Indianapolis. No question that is a notable accomplishment, but has it REALLY been that successful a run? Dungy inherited a quarterback who has become a three-time MVP, which made his job a lot easier, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally, he’s had potential Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Jeff Saturday and very good players like Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. I’m not suggesting Dungy is a bad coach, nonetheless has he and his teams reached their potential?

In four of his seven playoff appearances, it has been one and done for the Colts, three times as favorites, like last Saturday. If you remember, the reason he was asked to leave Tampa Bay wasn’t because he was terrible person, rather the failures losing in the very first playoff game three years in a row from 1999-2001. Maybe the Buccaneers weren’t ready to win, yet the coincidence of them winning the Super Bowl the next year after he left is striking.

Contrast that with Andy Reid, who has a like/hate relationship in Philadelphia (who doesn’t for that matter). Reid makes little effort to be likeable and has seen his share of family issues on the front page of untold newspapers. Yet, with last week’s win at Minnesota, the Eagles have won seven straight (5-2 ATS) first games in the postseason.

Dungy does have a Super Bowl winners ring and Reid doesn’t as a head coach, but purely in the football sense, especially for a sports bettors like you and me, I’d rather have Reid coaching on my nickel than Dungy, who has lost first playoff game seven of 11 times as head coach.

Spoke to a noted college basketball handicapper back in December and me mentioned the Big East as conference that could produce a number of upsets. Much like the mythical beast “Hydra”, the Big East is a multi-headed monster, with nine teams in the Top 25 this week. In Greek mythology stories of Hydra, you cut off one of the heads of the beast and another appears, which is what is likely to happen in the Big East all season. Thus far favorites are 11-2 and 8-5 ATS in conference play; however the grueling affects of this league will surely have more underdog winners in the coming weeks.

I have to admit I haven’t looked at Oklahoma City much concerning betting, since I’m not a big supporter of wagering on teams that have no chance to win. Seeing the loud rumbling noise accompanying a lighting discharge (thunder) squad has the worst scoring margin record in the NBA at -8.0 points per game, I can’t lay down the cash on OKC very often. I was mildly surprised to learn after being bowl games intensive the last few weeks (making a few NBA wagers here and there) Oklahoma City was 21-13-1 ATS, however I wasn’t stunned considering how many points they typically receive.

One team that has me befuddled is the leader in making money in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks. Having lived in the land of brats and beer for years (only place I’ve ever heard of having a regional neighborhood called “Piggsville” and not have negative connotation), I’ve always had a soft spot for Bucks. Milwaukee is mere 17-19, with heart-thumping 24-11-1 ATS record. What I find most intriguing about the Bucks spread record is nearly half (9) of their losses have been by 10 or more points. Take away those games against the spread in which they are 2-7 ATS, that means in the rest of all of the games Milwaukee has played, they are 22-4-1 against the spread which is remarkable. From the handicapping perspective, right now, if Milwaukee looks like they might get whipped, either play against them or pass, otherwise, they are definite Play On team. (This last paragraph made Fox's Ben Maller's NBA rumor page)