Classic 1vs2 Confrontation in South Regional

If North Carolina and Oklahoma were any more impressive in Sweet 16 games, the NCAA in order to cut costs just would hand out a co-championship to both teams and move on. Fortunately for us, it doesn’t work that way and this matchup is as good as any you would find in the Final Four.

The Tar Heels (31-4, 15-19 ATS) showed their A-Game against Gonzaga, once again proving the value of a mostly healthy Ty Lawson. He’s the horsepower in the North Carolina engine, being able to accelerate past opponents with ease, scoring and finding open shooters. Wayne Ellington continues to play his best basketball of the year, taking full advantage of more wide open areas with Lawson buzzing around.

Another benefactor is Tyler Hansbrough, who is like a plow-horse, giving coach Roy Williams everything he has each time he takes the floor. The senior almost always finds a way to make a major contribution and is massive part of why the Tar Heels are 11-3 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite since last season.

Standing in their way is beast, not the vicious kind, at least outwardly. Soon to be player of the year Blake Griffin is averaging an overpowering 30.3 points and 14.7 boards while shooting a head-snapping 78.7 percent from the field in the tournament. (He’s missed 10 of 47 shots)
The guard tandem of Tony Crocker and Willie Warren has melded, though Crocker won’t have as many open looks against North Carolina’s defense, as he did against Syracuse 2-3 zone, in which he was 6 for 11. Warren will be expected to stay aggressive and attack the basket since UNC lacks shot-blockers and he gets good extension on jump shots. Oklahoma comes in 17-1 and 8-5 ATS in non-conference games this season.

Bookmaker.com has North Carolina a seven-point favorite with a total of 164. The total theoretically favors both teams, since the Tar Heels are 32-17 ATS when they score 81 or more points and Oklahoma is 50-22 ATS when they cross the same barrier. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in road games after two or more Overs, with Roy’s boys 6-13 ATS after three or more straight wins this season.

Each team can be had and be beaten. If Griffin has a decided edge over Hansbrough and Crocker can shoot like he did against the Orangemen, Oklahoma could deprive UNC of 18th trip to Final Four. If Hansbrough can secure a draw in the paint and Sooners point guard Austin Johnson becomes mistake prone against Tar Heel guards, North Carolina ends what has been a magical season in Norman.

The final dance card will be punched late Sunday with its fourth member, after a true heavyweight bout.