No, it is not true that the city of Detroit has been invaded by an army of Gumby’s or space aliens (though Michigan fans might believe so), it’s just the green-clad Michigan State fans have over-ridden the Motor City with the hopes their team can become national champions for the second time this decade. As coach Tom Izzo continues to morph into his mentor and predecessor Judd Heathcote, he keeps churning out Final Four teams, nearly at the same pace as the octumom.There has been much discussion about what impact the huge crowd will have on the outcome of the Michigan State and Connecticut contest. In truth, the affect should be far less than anticipated and here is why. Because of the NCAA looking to expand revenue sources, they have set up new business model to play in stadiums that can hold 60,000 or more by centering the court itself. With your standard basketball court just under one-third the size of a regulation football field, the crowd itself is further removed from the action. Because the sound is less contained due to the size and a large portion of the crowd doesn’t have a rooting interest per se, this negates what would seem to be a big edge for Michigan State.
If you asked Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun if he rather play at Ford Field or at gym that holds 4,000 screaming fans tightly packed and rooting against his club, he would take the former.
Connecticut (31-4, 17-14 ATS) arrives in the Motor City 8-1 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season. The Huskies main attributes are their ability to control the paint on defense and score easy baskets in transition. Hasheem Thabeet is the ruler in the lane, swatting away and altering shots whenever he is on the floor. Stanley Robinson is another player that plays help defense near the rim and generally cleans up what Thabeet can’t reach. Robinson became the missing piece when Jerome Dyson was sidelined, becoming more of a scorer along with his talents to rebound and play defense.
UConn scores 78.5 points per game on the season and is averaging 87.2 PPG in the tournament, including the 82 against Missouri in the Elite Eight encounter. Connecticut is 8-2 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more and follows the lead of guard A.J. Price.
The senior guard has a lot of responsibility. When the offense is running smoothly, Jeff Adrien, Craig Austrie and others are positioned properly to score and Price finds his spots. When the halfcourt offense becomes choppy or stifled, which will happen frequently against Michigan State, Price is expected to bail them out. If Kemba Walker can maintain the same confidence he displayed again Missouri, he could be wild card for coach Calhoun, however that seems unlikely since game should not be as free-flowing.
It took a couple of years, but coach Izzo knew and understood the changes in college basketball. His 2000 title team and many others he had were power teams, much like a football team that runs the ball and stuffs the run. Izzo later saw in non-conference play and in the tournament, this style wasn’t going to work and changed his recruiting to more athletic players, teaching them his principles. For a few seasons, he has players not willing to work as hard as he wanted and the results showed.
Things started to change with last year’s recruiting class led by Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers. These two were quick and contrarian to typical Big Ten guards and could run out on the break. Seniors Goran Suton and Travis Walton saw that this type of basketball could work in East Lansing and with Raymar Morgan, the Spartans had the ability to easier adapt to more than one style of play, which is why they are 14-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons.
Michigan State (30-6, 19-13-1 ATS) doesn’t play the sticky defense of years ago, holding teams to under 40 percent; instead they just don’t allow many points. Throw out the non-caring performance against Ohio State in the Big Ten tourney and the Spartans have surrendered just 58 points per game in last 10 tries.
Betjamaica.com has Connecticut as four-point favorites with a total of 133.5.
The Huskies win and cover if Thabeet and Price in particular stay out of foul trouble. Connecticut can take away a Spartans strength being the second-best rebounding team in the nation (regular season). They are 8-2 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or points a game and are 11-2 OVER in all neutral court games. If Adrien and Robinson score, the Huskies should be expected to advance to Monday night.
Michigan State pulls the upset if they hit their outside shots. Connecticut has shown they won’t foul much and the lane will be clogged. If Suton can step out like he did against Louisville, that has to pull Thabeet away from the basket, opening up lanes for others to exploit. The Spartans are 16-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less and do a terrific job defending the perimeter, but since UConn is nothing special beyond the arc, the defense has to stop Connecticut’s mid-range game and limit dunks by their big folks to win. Sparty is 18-6 UNDER as an underdog.
In Final Four games the top seeds are 7-4 and 8-3 ATS, with the straight winner 19-3 against the spread.
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