Villanova is the lowest seed to make the Final Four this season and has to fight the “just happy to be here” syndrome. If you noticed, head coach Jay Wright had the biggest smile of any of the sideline generals that appeared on television over the weekend. It is generally accepted that the coach has a chance at least for a day to relish the moment of taking a team to the elite of college basketball and it is personally satisfying to do so.Villanova (30-7, 19-14 ATS) was close three years ago, with another bunch of scintillating guards. In 2006, it was seniors Randy Foye and Allen Ray, along with Kyle Lowery. They were the number one seed and lost to eventual champion Florida. In fact, the Wildcats have been a terrific tournament team under Wright with 11-4 SU record, but three of their four losses have been to eventual champion.
What made this team better is stronger inside presence, led by Dante Cunningham. The senior gives them a hard-working rebounder with nose for the ball and Shane Clark is ravenous defender, who also crashes the glass. While Villanova has somewhat of a reputation for slow-down basketball, they can play all 94 feet expertly and are 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.
A lot of the attention is focused on the guards and it should be. Scottie Reynolds is the main man, but hardly the whole show. The Corey Fisher-Corey Stokes guard combo give the ‘Cats two scorers and defenders and Reggie Redding can lock an opponents best scorer, while adding points himself. Villanova comes is 10-3 ATS following a ATS win, which they had over Pittsburgh and you better not neglect Dwayne Anderson who also does many of the little things that have helped this team win games.
If you noticed, North Carolina (32-4, 16-19 ATS) had the most joy-less celebration of the four combatants that have made their way to the Motor City. The reason is simple; last year’s loss in the Final Four to Kansas left an empty void and the goal this year was to win six games in the tournament, not four.
Like every team in Detroit, the Tar Heels are peaking. North Carolina is 11-4 ATS away from Chapel Hill versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points an outing. Danny Green and Wayne Ellington have been finding the bottom of the net with exceptional regularity and Tyler Hansbrough is more dependable than a Swiss Army knife. As has been witnessed, Ty Lawson is playing not only like the ACC player of the year, but also like a first team All-American guard.
North Carolina’s offense is almost impossible to contain, scoring 90 points a game, converting on 48.3 percent of attempts and burying the three-ball 38.3 percent of the time. Though this team is more focused on offense than defense, that doesn’t mean they do not defend, ask Oklahoma who needed several baskets late just to reach 60 points. When the Heels hold opponents to 60 or less points they are 13-4 ATS in next contest.
For the second game of the day, Bookmaker.com has North Carolina as seven point favorite with a total of 158.5.
If North Carolina is hitting on all cylinders (a little Detroit talk), Villanova is only going to get run over with the Tar Heels taking record to 9-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament the last two years. UNC can match the play of the Wildcats guards and has more fire power and options to put them away. If they have a six point lead late, North Carolina can salt it away and cover, since they make 76 percent from the free throw line.
Villanova can shock the world in part because they are free of pressure. The so-called experts give Michigan State a shot to pull the upset, with nobody talking about coach Wright’s ‘Cats. Nova has to hit shots and avoid dead spots, where North Carolina can run off 10 straight in less than two minutes. They must always stay within contact. The defense has to play up on their man, especially Lawson, getting a hand in the face on every attempt and not have Cunningham get in foul trouble. Villanova has covered five of last six as tournament underdogs.
Teams like Villanova off back to back upsets are just 2-7 ATS when they make the Final Four, yet teams like the Tar Heels that are favored by seven or more points two days before the championship are 1-8 against the oddsmakers number.
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