Michigan State almost Home in Midwest Regional

I’m not sure Tom Izzo would want it any other way, as his Spartans are an underdog against the number one team in college basketball. Michigan State has won two terrific basketball games against USC and Kansas, in which they were able to make plays at the end of each game and the opposing team was not. This Elite Eight game has a secondary meaning to coach Izzo and seniors Goran Suton and Travis Walton, since with a victory it, would continue the tradition of every senior class making at least one visit to Final Four under Izzo.

Michigan State (29-6, 18-13-1 ATS) would also having something waiting for them once they made it to Detroit, a throng of Spartans fans at Ford Field, making it a virtual home game for the team from East Lansing.

In order for Michigan State to upset Louisville, they will have to do a better job handling the ball than they did in the first 20 minutes against Kansas where they has 10 turnovers. In the second half, they regained control and committed just three miscues. The Spartans can’t play at frenetic pace and have to control the tempo. That means attacking press when openings appear, while being choosy enough to run offense when necessary.

Michigan State raised their record to 13-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons and will need Suton and the guards to do what they did in last 20 minutes to limit Louisville. The backcourt attacked the Kansas guards and didn’t allow them to make entry passes into the post. After surrendering 20 points to the Jayhawks in the paint in the first half, they choked them off to just one basket in the final stanza, with Suton offering other support.

This type of defense could affect the Cards long-range shooting also, with the Spartans 8-1 ATS in road games versus teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game on the season.
Michigan State would have to believe Louisville (31-5, 22-14 ATS) couldn’t possibly play any better than they did against Arizona. Watching the energy and the confidence the Cardinals exuded from the tap, you didn’t need the sound on to see what Arizona was in for. What’s scary about Louisville is how they are playing.

Rick Pitino’s team is the hottest in the country with 13 consecutive wins (9-4 ATS), playing devastating defense. What makes them almost impossible to defeat is when they shoot the ball proficiently. During this winning streak, they have made 48 percent or more of attempts 10 times, including last four games. They have more quality depth coming off the bench than the Chinese Red Army and even Earl Clark seems to understand the moment. "We came out with more intensity, and that's what you've got to do when you're up big because it's hard to play with a lead," Clark said.

Louisville is 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points a game after 15 or more contests and has been established as a seven-point favorite with a total of 138.5 at Betjamaica.com. The Cardinals have to stay aggressive on offense and defense. They are 22-12 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game and perfect 9-0 ATS when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game.

The Spartans are 12-4 ATS versus excellent teams who shoot better than 45 percent with a defense holding opponents to less than 42 percent shots made. Like always, Michigan State must control the glass and Louisville is 2-9 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams, outrebounding opponents by seven or more per game.

Something will have to give since Sparty is 8-0 SU as a No.2 seed and the ‘Ville is 17-1 SU as a one or two seed. Next stop, the Motor City.