Early Line Moves in Football

For the Early Line Moves, we seek out the earliest lines and compare them on late Tuesday nights numbers to see what the so-called Line Movers do. By and large their track record is solid and dependable. Last week in college football was not good at 2-5-1 on the sides and 3-3 in college totals. This makes season record 30-22-2, 57.6 percent on sides and 25-15, 62.5 percent on Totals in CFB. In the NFL, they were 0-3 on sides bringing the record to 9-7, 56.2 percent. On the Totals a 3-1 week makes the updated figure 9-9, 50 percent. I wouldn’t be surprised if these did well this week. Enjoy reading and closely follow these numbers for wagering portfolio.

College Sides
TCU +1.5 to -1.5 Winner
Conn. +3.5 to -1
Wake Forest Pick to -2.5
W. Mich +3.5 to -1
Nevada -18.5 to -21
Kentucky -10 to -7.5
Louis. Tech 17.5 to 20.5
Stanford +2.5 to -1
Flor. Atl +1 to -2

College Totals
BYU/TCU 47 to 44 Winner
Miami/Duke 46 to 43
Pur/Northw 42 to 45.5
Oreg.St./Wash 62.5 to 59.5
Ark.St/ULL 68.5 to 62

NFL Sides
Buffalo +2 to Pick
N.Y. Giants -13 to -11

NFL Totals
SD/Buff 46.5 to 44.5
Sea/TB 41.5 to 39
Den/NE 46 to 48

College Football Select Game Writeups

The Missouri and Texas matchup was close to being 1 vs 2, unfortunately the Tigers did not hold up their end of the deal. Vanderbilt and Oklahoma both suffered first loss of the season, each as favorites and will look to rebound in very different roles this Saturday. Michigan State and Arizona are both home underdogs this week and can make national noise with upset victories of which they are both capable. Defensive dogs like the Wildcats holding teams to under 275 yards of offense are dangerous. All the lines shown are from Bookmaker.com. To read the Game write-up click here.

Off the Red River Rivalry battle, Oklahoma looks to rebound with a tricky foe. The Sooners (5-1, 4-1 ATS) flunked their first true challenge against Texas. What has been seen is the purpose of which the Oklahoma offense has played with this season, borrowing from 70’s rock group Bachman-Turner Overdrive and later Office Depot; the Sooners have been taking care of business. Sam Bradford continues his amazing season, with more poise in 2008 and trio of running backs, led by DeMarco Murray run behind a nasty offensive line, averaging over a 157 yards per game.

College Football Betting for Saturday

Officially 3Daily Winners ended up 2-0 for Thursday, nonetheless it was good to have all readers hopefully take advantage of all four winning plays. Our top NHL guy was right on Buffalo Friday night. One small thought, what would be the outcry if Tom Brady had the same knee problem Peyton Manning has had and it had been kept equally as quiet as the Colts have done it.

Saturday’s Best System has two plays with a 90 percent spread record. The Top Trend ventures into the ACC to take a peek at the Turtles. A piping hot sports bettor ways in again with his Best Bet on Saturday’s card. Good Luck.

A thought to ponder, if the price of a barrel of oil is half of what it was in May, how come gas prices are not? Of that’s right, the oil companies are reinvesting in alternative fuels, forgot about that.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road favorites after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with five or more offensive starters back. How this works is enough offensive talent is available for this team to put up a better performance than what they had in last game. Seeing the oddsmakers still have enough faith in them to make road chalk, they should be good. This succulent system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent. The teams to consider are the U at Miami and Georgia Tech.

Free Football Trend -2) Maryland is 10-1 ATS at home after a loss of 28 or more points.

Free Football Selection -3) Last Saturday we gave you a member of the Left Coast Connection’s best bet on South Carolina, which was part of his picks that went 3-0 to raise his college football record to 14-2 the last month. This week his Top Play is Northern Illinois.

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Free College Football Plays at 3Daily Winners

We’ll go a little more football intensive today, with all three plays covering various aspects. The system play is “a don’t make sense” one, but who cares if it goes to 31-8 record. We are giving out two trends today, with both being more obscure, yet potentially quite useful. The Left Coast Connection members chime in on the big BYU-TCU contest. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing defense allowing 125 or less rushing yards a game, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Not really sure why this system works, since the two aspects seem to have nothing in common, but who are we to argue with 30-8 ATS record. Florida State is the play against team.

Free Football Trends -2) Thou neither will be counted officially, here are two trends to consider tonight. TCU is 5-0 ATS the last decade when Top 25 teams visit Fort Worth and Florida State is 0-6 ATS after scoring 40 or more points.

Free Football Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection has 10 betting on TCU and two favoring BYU tonight.

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Betting on tonight's ACC Game

While this Atlantic Coast Conference contest is not even the most important game on Thursday night, there is more than enough intrigue for those surfing channels and college football bettors alike. Let’s start with the TMZ-like stuff first. Long time Florida State assistant coach Chuck Amato left Tallahassee to coach is alma mater N.C. State in 2000 and his teams were known for undisciplined play, winning when they shouldn’t and losing when they should. His most notable accomplishment (besides the weird sunglasses) was beating the Seminoles three times, twice in North Florida. After being fired in 2006 for a 3-9 season in Raleigh, Bobby Bowden brought him back as linebacker coach and the Chuckster returns to the Carter-Finley Stadium for the first time since.

The first really big question is how does the Wolfpack extend spread cover record to 7-1 against Florida State? For practical purposes let’s assume it won’t be from running the ball, with N.C. State 117th in the country toting the pigskin and the Seminoles fifth stopping opposing ball carriers. Maybe the Wolfpack players will all excited to play on Thursday night before the home crowd and unknowingly raise their record to 8-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Yea, that’s gonna happen, let’s get out the lipstick for the pig.

Passing the ball is not a great option, as Wolfpack quarterbacks complete less than 50 percent of their attempts. No wonder Bookmaker.com has N.C. State as a 10.5-point home underdog, their offense is downright offensive.

Moving on, can the Wolfpack defense help pull the upset? Looking at the numbers at face value, the answer would be unequivocal, NO. They give up 430 yards a game compared to the teams they’ve played that have averaged 359 yards a game. That’s a difference of 71 yards (those high school math classes paying off again) which makes this as likely to happen as Linda and Hulk Hogan getting back together.

Does this mean N.C. State has no shot? No, no, no, of course not. Were talking a hulking young men interested in women, video games, UFC and women (not necessarily in that order). The Florida State offensive line is WAY better than what they have had in the last five years, yet is won’t be mentioned among the best 20 in the country. Stoic coach Tom O’Brien defense has to jam up the middle and take away Florida State run game. The idea is to force frosh QB Christian Ponder to be a playmaker as passer. Ponder is completing 40 percent of his passes for 165 yards a game in last three outings. Bobby Bowden’s team is starting to look more like the Navy offense than the Noles. Make Ponder ponder about passing and maybe N.C. State can improve to 7-2 in ACC games.

Let’s not forget, Florida State has beaten two FCS teams, Colorado and the U (Miami), with the latter two both .500. Offensive prosperity has not officially returned just yet with head-coach-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher running the offense. The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS in next game if oddsmakers have a line on it after cracking the 40 point barrier. Bowden’s bunch is 4-10 against the spread after holding a team to under the century mark rushing the ball.

I’ll give very shaky support to the cranked up home team to cover. What I really prefer is the total which is at 47.5. Turnovers could turn this into a loser for this guest writer, but what the heck, I found out Florida State is 12-3 Under as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, with average score coming in at just a hair over 42 points. N.C. State is 12-3 Under playing on Thursday’s with average score a trifle beyond 44 total points.

In conclusion, I’m betting the Under and still thinking about a parlay with the total and Wolfpack and you can do whatever you like. Thanks for reading.

Red Wydley

Looking in the Rearview Mirror in Betting Football

Week 6 of the NFL saw a return of low scoring football, with 10 of the 14 games played going Under the number. That was the first time since week 1 the majority of games had followed that path. For the season, the record stands at 47-40-1 Over. On the topic of totals, one aspect bookmakers are getting crushed in is the Monday night total. After the Giants and Browns affair, the number is 7-0 Over to start a new work week.

Over the last four years betting against the bottom five teams in the Yards Per Point category has netted a winning percentage of 55 to 62 percent after week 3 of the season. In 2008, it has been completely the opposite, with these bottom feeders astonishing 9-1 ATS, the first three weeks. Based on the past, can’t say this trend will continue, however if Kansas City, St. Louis, Baltimore, Oakland or Minnesota make sense as potential plays this week, this might be one more reason to back them. Coincidently, all five are underdogs.

One of the most overlooked aspects of wagering on football is coaching. It’s not technical handicapping and not exactly like situational handicapping per se, since you can’t be sure when the light goes on for a coach and his staff. Two great examples were on prime time this past week. San Diego got off to another tough 0-2 start this season. No doubt injuries played a part. The Chargers flew by the Jets on a Monday night and beat Oakland with a sharp second half 28-18 to square record at 2-2.

San Diego traveled to Miami and Norv Turner and his offensive staff prepared a game plan of trying to run the ball down the throats of Miami, having determined they had a physical advantage to do so. On defense, the loss of Shawne Merriman had seen the Chargers return to a softer bend-but-don’t break approach. The Dolphins came into the game feeling spry after whipping New England and off a bye. Miami was the aggressor from the start and carried the game to San Diego, who quickly found out they were not going to have success running the ball and coach Turner was slow to react. The Chargers ended up losing 17-10 and were undermined by a poorly conceived game plan on both sides of the ball.

This past Sunday, Turner and his staff finally assembled a game plan that matched the situation, and better utilized the talents of the players on the team. New England might not have Tom Brady; however I don’t recall him taking a snap playing in the secondary. CB Delta O’Neal has played for a number of NFL teams for a reason, he’s adequate at best. The Chargers have big athletic receivers who can go get the ball. They attacked the Patriots from the opening play with the long pass and never relented. As John Madden pointed out, L.T. is not 100 percent and thus passing first, forced New England to not commit as many players to hang around the line of scrimmage, which gave the Bolts a better opportunity to run the ball.

Defensively, DC Ted Cottrell is known for playing tendencies of opponents, rather than attacking. In this game he understood the limitations of the Matt Cassel and attacked him. While Cottrell is obviously a smart man to stay employed in the NFL, he doesn’t always play to the players he has on hand. With or without Merriman, the Chargers players are more emotional lot and play their best when on the attack. He set up such a plan last week; watch to see if he does so in the coming weeks.

The Cleveland Browns were in the words of Tony Kornheiser, “A sexy pick to win the AFC North” and instead started 0-3. They limped past a skuzzy Cincinnati squad 20-12 and nearly benched quarterback Derek Anderson for being terrible. With two weeks to prepare for the Giants, Romeo Crennel and has coaching staff must have had an epiphany. The strength of the team is the offensive line and its receivers. Braylon Edwards had played dreadful, which undermined success, but like most prima-donna receivers in the NFL, he needs to be a focal point and has to have that confidence early in the game. Cleveland got the ball in his hands quickly and the offensive line took the challenge of going up against one of the best defensive fronts in football and ran for 144 yards along with providing superior pass blocking in what turned into a 35-14 rout.

The point is intelligent NFL coaches will devise aggressive game plans that utilize the strengths of their teams and attack the weaknesses of their opponents. It sounds like this is something they should do every week, yet as any football bettor or interested fan knows this is not the case. The players still have to play; nonetheless coaches have to place players in the best position for success.

Some might wonder about the other team making adjustments based on what they see on tape to counteract what an opponent had success at. That is a logical conclusion, which is exactly why the elite coaches come up with the right answers most of the time in a 16-game season and are paid handsomely to do so.

College Football Betting Thoughts

We are at the unofficial half way point of the college football season and this past week was a killer for two areas of college football teams from wagering perspective. Home teams that were favored by 10 or more points were abysmal 4-15-1 ATS, including five outright losses and Texas Tech holding on to win in overtime. On the season, home underdogs had been hovering around .500 against the spread. This past week they were sickly 6-14 ATS for a two week total of 11-25-3 against the spread. On the season home underdogs that have won outright, are 5-11 ATS in next game.

As opposed to what normally happens in the pro game, spread losses tend to snow ball in the college game. What we look for is teams off of exactly three spread losses. After another crummy 1-3-1 week, the season record on these squads in next game is 5-10-1 ATS, offering play against possibilities this week on Wisconsin, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Washington State, Washington, Southern Miss, Mid. Tenn. State and Colorado.

Though the timing was somewhat curious, Tommy Bowden being fired at Clemson does not come as a shock. Much like the cat with nine lives, Bowden had time and time again managed to survive disappointment from the Clemson faithful, with the Tigers rallying down the stretch. This year was different, as Clemson was the clear choice to conquer a winnable ACC. Their first game against Alabama taught us two things, how good the Crimson Tide really was and this Clemson team was not ready for prime time.

For most of Bowden’s tenure at Clemson, bettors rode the wave with the Tigers, play them when they’re hot and going the other way when they are not. The last straw was the Wake Forest loss, after a disappointing defeat to Maryland. A quality football team that believes in the coach and the staff comes out focused and wins that game. Instead, these Tigers yawned, with the message very clear the team wasn’t buying what Bowden was selling.

Remember when Oklahoma won the national championship in 2000? Those early years for Bob Stoops were defensive teams that popped opponents and let them know more was coming. Watching the Sooners against Texas, it was obvious in the first half, this team didn’t have that “pop” most top teams in the country have. Oklahoma made tackles just fine, but no gusto behind them. The best way to describe it is when you watch a minor bowl game between evenly matched teams and you end up thinking, these are two competent teams, you wonder how they ended up 7-5. Then on New Year’s Day, a matchup of two BCS teams takes place and you suddenly see the real difference. With how competitive the Big 12 is going to be the rest of the way, the Sooners are still very much in the hunt; nonetheless they will need a more physical presence to give themselves a chance.

On the topic of the Big 12, all those SEC snobs can stick your nose up to the rest of college football about your superiority, but I’m not backing you up this time. The Big 12 has better quarterbacks, enough speed and can play the power game. A few SEC know-it-alls who arrive at games to start tailgating on Thursday (actually I’m a little jealous about that idea) will point to the Texas and Oklahoma game as no defense being played, like they do in the South. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Florida hang on 51 on LSU? The overall quarterback play of the Big 12 is just better this season and I’ll rate the leagues as even.

Depending on when a bettor purchased Georgia against Tennessee, all three outcomes were possible. (Win, lose or push) If you are a Bulldogs fan or betting Georgia games with regularity, isn’t it shocking the number of bad (dumb) plays Mathew Stafford continues to make? Stafford had career day throwing for 310 yards against Tennessee, however made what looked liked two bad passes in the red zone costing the ‘Dogs a chance to bury Tennessee by 21 or more points. If this was the first time it had happened all year, I might have different opinion, yet watching him, he makes a couple of these decisions a game. Backing Georgia right now as favorite has risky feel.

Take this spread and shove it! That’s what Tommy Tuberville did at Auburn, sending offensive coordinator Tony Franklin away and about 110,000 and more Michigan football fans would like to do the same to Rich Rodriquez. Auburn is a mess and the timing could hardly be any worse for Tigers fans with Alabama a rising tide. With games still at Penn State and Ohio State, plus home to improving Michigan State, Rodriquez might become more famous for being the coach that engineered the Wolverines 33-year bowl streak coming to an end. Betting against these two offensive misfits is the only way to go today.

Hump Day Action at 3Daily Winners

We received a nice Free Winner on Minnesota in the NHL last night, if our guy from the Left Coast Connection has another we’ll post it later today. Yesterday’s trend was a loser, as it looks like Tampa Bay; (think about that for a second) is one game away from going to the World Series. Fox Sports worst nightmare is about to happen if it’s the Phillies and Rays. Speaking of the City of Brotherly Love, our Top Trend involves their team tonight. The System play looks at the total of an AFC North division encounter with a 32-8 track record. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY OVER on any team where the total is 35 or less after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games. This total system is 32-8, 80 percent since 2004 and Cincinnati is the team the matches this system as they get ready to host Pittsburgh.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Philadelphia and Los Angeles have played Over 11 of 12 times at Dodger Stadium the last three years.

Free Selection -3) Pass today

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Understanding Valuable Football Betting Aspects

With most teams at the mid-point of the college football campaign, conference races are taking shape and meaningful data is being accumulated. Those wagering on college football should be gearing up for a successful second half of the season, no matter what the earlier results were.

In order to be successful you have to be extremely savvy. Too many bettors in any sport focus on too few aspects that can help them win. Some focus on statistical data, which is great way to understand how teams play. Here you can view how teams run the ball and pass the pigskin. At the same time you can see how they do defensively in the same areas. As the season continues, searching for similar opponents can be a big advantage, pitting one team against another in head to head comparison. This can show the strengths and weaknesses of teams against a given foe.

The negative to this type of comparison is placing absolute value on the predictive nature of the next game. How does a team like Michigan State that had averaged 234 yards rushing in its four previous games, run for just 91 yards at home against Iowa on Oct.4, in a game the Spartans should have lost (Iowa in the end zone –awful) and barely managed to cover at six-point favorites 16-13? This is where the sports bettor has to be armed with more then on the surface knowledge and be ready to take the next step.

Situational handicapping is needed to be blended with technical material. Michigan State was off four satisfying wins and could have covered the spread in all four games, except for inclement weather at home against Florida Atlantic. Iowa was off a pair of losses, mostly due to inferior quarterback play that prevented them from scoring more points. The Hawkeyes had the motivational edge in desire, wanting to break losing skid and Michigan State might be a little satisfied after playing quite well.

In studying statistics, Iowa had held its earlier opponents to about three yards per carry. A look at the numbers saw the Spartans had only rushed for 91 yards at California in their only loss. A quick check of the stats shows the Bears are allowing 2.5 yards per carry.

The final piece to this puzzle is the play of guarterback Brian Hoyer. The numbers suggest Hoyer is having a decent season; however Michigan State is built around the running game. Hoyer has the ability to throw the ball, but is not a great playmaker. He’s more suited to lead a team into scoring position and then the running game takes over. Despite a 4-1 record (at the time), Hoyer had three touchdown passes and three interceptions coming into first Spartans Big 10 home game.

Let’s review why Iowa was great underdog play. They needed to win after a pair of losses and Michigan State was at home hearing about how well they are playing. The Hawkeyes run defense is quite good and the Spartans had shown they could be stopped rushing the ball. In spite of a quarterback edge for Michigan State, their signal caller had not made “difference” plays most of the season.

This type of analysis might seem overwhelming or very time consuming. The fact is once the proper routine is setup, a schedule of 40-50 games can be knocked off in an evening. Studying your stats lays down a solid foundation of understanding teams, yet I have never seen a number that tells me when a team might be more or less motivated for a specific game. Winning isn’t supposed to be easy, that’s why most bettors lose.

In today’s world, where everything is seemingly going wrong, people are looking to those who have substantive answers (not those seeking to be elected officials) that can get the world back on track. Betting football changes every year, as home underdogs are super one year and not the next. This is where it pays to look beyond the curtain and see what else is available.

One of my colleagues at the Platinum Sheet is a big supporter in Yards Per Play. Most of our discussions have centered on the NFL, however this statistic can work in the college game as well.

Yards Per Play can work for a number of reasons, starting with a team like Missouri for example. The Tigers are led by Heisman contender Chase Daniel. With his skill and weaponry in the Missouri offense, they average 7.9 YPP. In is simplest form, the Tigers have shown the ability to create a first down every other play. Of course a number of teams would have that same ability by using that scale. But why it works for Missouri and other teams of its ilk, they have good first down gain, typically have short third down conversions to be made and make big plays that lead to points.

Here are the Top 10 teams in Yards Per Play (Regular and Spread Records)

Tulsa 6-0 4-1
Missouri 5-1 3-2
Texas Tech 6-0 2-1-1
UL-Louisiana 3-3 5-1
Oklahoma State 6-0 5-0
Arkansas State 4-2 2-3
Penn State 7-0 4-1-1
Ball State 7-0 5-0-1
Houston 3-3 2-3
Oklahoma 5-1 4-1

Total 52-10, 36-13-3 ATS

Rest assured these numbers will change since the Big 12 has four teams in the Top 10 in this category and many will face off against one another before the end of the regular season.

A question that comes to mind is will all these teams continue to be good wagers? Obviously defense, special teams and the schedule will all impact how these teams perform, however looking purely offensively, relative balance would seem to be imperative. Texas Tech is fine example. The Red Raiders passing game has been unsurpassed since Mike Leach has been the coach. For Texas Tech, 74.2 percent of their offense is generated thru the air. Now having to face stiffer competition in the Big 12, stronger defenses will try to take away the Red Raiders running game and limit the pass, making them even more one-dimensional and beatable.

Penn State seems well-suited for success, gaining able yardage per play and rushing accounting for 48.5 percent of their total yards gained and passing the rest.

What we are shown is pays well (sometimes very well) to be a multi-talented handicapper understanding several points to make you a winner. Plus, being able to do research to find hidden treasure can be worth its weight in gold.

Wagering info for Tuesday October 14

Our only official play yesterday was a winner on the trend with Cleveland. We’d like to thank Bill from Indiana for supplying us that fantastic angle. Today’s Top Trend is from the world of baseball and applies to tonight’s Game 4 contest. Our Best System is a first half play on one of Thursday night’s college football games and comes from Statfox.com. A few of the guys from the Left Coast Connection wager on the NHL and we’ll post their plays from time to time on slow days like today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 and the school is an excellent offensive team scoring 35 or more points a game, after a win by 17 or more points. BYU fits this profile for Thursday night on a system that is 25-4, 86.2 percent. This makes the play UNDER for the first half.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 1-13 against the money line in road games after scoring seven runs or more two straight games.

Free Selections -3) Eddie from the LCC bets football and hockey period. We'll give him a try with Minnesota tonight on the money line against Atlanta.

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Free Football Betting info for Columbus Day

Another good day with 2-1 record here, as Kendall missed on Oakland and was “only” 3-2 yesterday dropping him to 23-5 on the season. (Don’t we all wish we were doing this poorly) The only official play will be today’s Top Trend and it is a good one. Our system play doesn’t meet our standards, but is thought provoking on its own merit. On a personal note, I was 4-0 yesterday, hopefully I’ll get moving on all plays with momentum. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) Our Monday night system states its best to play on a team that rushed for 200 or more yards last week and won by more than seven points. This system is 16-7 ATS, 69.5 percent and is saying the Giants are the play.

Free Football Trend -2) Teams off a bye, playing at home and on the receiving end of six or more points are 24-3 ATS in this situation. That would be Cleveland tonight.

Free Selections -3) We are all over the place from our members of the Left Coast Connection, but here is what the majority of these guys are doing today. On the basepaths the Dodgers and Red Sox are the choices and Cleveland in the NFL. None of these plays will be rated by our standards.

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NFL Wagering Info from 3Daily Winners

It was one heck a day at 3Daily Winners and in fact a great college football week. Yesterday, all three of our selections were correct and if you review Friday’s system and trend we ended up 5-0, love to see those kind of numbers. Let’s try and do it again. Our Top System is an oldie but goodie at 85.7 percent dating back to 1983. Today’s Top Trend involves where numbers fall concerning Denver. Kendall from the Left Coast Connection is blistering bookies with a remarkable 20-3 record and has his Best Bet here today. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game against opponent after a loss by three or less points. In the last 25 years, this system is 24-4 ATS, 85.7 percent and suggests playing against Carolina today.

Free Football Trend -2) Denver is 0-10 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last two seasons.

Free Football Selection -3) The hottest handicapper in the NFL world we know of is Kendall at 20-3 and today his best play is on Oakland plus the points.

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