Big Monday is Back

With football relegated to weekends the rest of the season, college basketball is back on the front burner. That means a dose of Big East and Big 12 hoops for the next couple of months and wagering opportunities from two of the best conferences in the collegiate game. We start this Monday with a “Whiteout” in Louisville and “Bedlam” bash in Norman. Get Ready!

Cardinal red is white

Louisville (12-4, 5-6 ATS) spent the early part of the season learning to play without its two best players from a year ago and coach Rick Pitino has added responsibility with their hard work and maturity. He’s brought back different full-court defenses, that have man-to-man principles in the half court and the players love it. Guards Preston Knowles and Edgar Sosa are embracing the challenge and Samardo Samuels has become more dominant. The Cardinals are on 18-6 ATS run in Big East action the last two years.

The last couple of years, Louisville has added a special night when everyone in the arena wears white t-shirts, for the whiteout-effect and coach Rick Pitino has joined in the festivities wearing a pure white suit with a red tie, which led to coining the phrase “respect the suit”. The Cardinals have won seven of eight, including a non-cover over St. John’s 75-68 Saturday. Louisville is 23-12 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last three seasons.

After squeaking by Marquette twice in eight days by a total of four points, once beaten Villanova (14-1, 10-4 ATS) lands in Kentucky. The Wildcats have a number of ways to attack teams with its marvelous guard contingent and should not be vastly affected by the different types of presses Louisville likes to use. Few guards in the country have been through the wars like Scottie Reynolds and his team is 13-3 ATS vs. good offensive clubs averaging 77 or more points per game. Coach Jay Wright’s concern is defensive intensity, where he has seen unnecessary lapses.

When asked about having his team readiness to play after nipping Marquette 78-76 Saturday, Wright said. “We’ll be fired up to play”.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cardinals as three-point favorites, with total of 155. Villanova is averaging 84.3 points per game and Louisville is 5-15 ATS versus offensive teams -scoring 84 or more points game. The Wildcats have to contend with the Cards various defenses and are 6-16 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

These teams have split six engagements the last 12 years with the ‘Ville 5-1 ATS.

Bedlam to reign

Oklahoma (9-6, 4-8 ATS) figured to have problems with the departure of All-American Blake Griffin, but not to this extreme. The Sooners have lost five games by double digits and the last three have been a nightmare, being destroyed by 15, 24 and 31 respectively. Oklahoma brought in a number of new recruits that were supposed to blend with talented returnees like guard Willie Warren, but as coach Jeff Capel said about his underperforming squad, “Talent is overrated,”.

The Sooners are 0-6 ATS off a spread loss and defensive effort has been the biggest culprit. In their last three blowouts, they have allowed opposing teams to shoot 55.8 percent. Maybe a battle with in-state rival will stir their hearts.

Oklahoma State (13-2, 6-2-1 ATS) started Big 12 play with bang, burying then No.22 Texas Tech 81-52 two nights ago. James Anderson led the way with 28 points and they have done a superb job protecting the ball with just over 11 turnovers a game, which is on pace to break a school record. The Cowboys are averaging 75.1 points per game this season and are 10-1 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma State opened as a one-point favorite, with total of 146. The Cowboys have covered 10 of last 11 league games and are 13-5 UNDER after two or more consecutive wins. Oklahoma has taken nine of last 12 meetings at home, with 5-7 ATS mark and is 12-3 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.

The Sooners are dismal 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 Big Monday’s.

High Maintenance Friday Favorites

For Day Two of the first round, thought we would break the bracket down into two segments. The first portion is taking a look at the five major favorites and see how they might perform, having the burden of giving away so many points to teams that may or may not be able to use them for the purpose of those who might back them.

Louisville is the top ranked and top seeded team in tournament and has all the components to be a champion. The Cardinals press can stick to opponents like barbecue sauce on baby back ribs, creating numerous turnovers and easy baskets. Coach Rick Pitino has been preaching incessantly about playing as a team, saying the NBA can wait and the players finally listened. The Cardinals come in 8-1 ATS in road games after five or more consecutive wins and are 21-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com.

Morehead State with their opening game win over Alabama State, earned a four day stay in beautiful Dayton, Ohio. The Eagles have four starters that average double digits and are 13-5 ATS after one or more wins this season. One major conundrum for Morehead State, they committed 77 more turnover than assists coming into the tournament. Ouch. If they can keep their wits about them, the Eagles could cover, with Louisville 0-7 ATS after three straight wins by 10 points or more.

Also in the Midwest region is No.2 Michigan State, who is favored by 16.5 points. The Spartans ability to make a run depends on Raymar Morgan to play at expected level and point guard Kalin Lucas to be efficient, not mercurial. Michigan State laid an egg in Big Ten tourney and is 9-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. Robert Morris has Northeast Conference player of the year Jeremy Chappell, on a team that shoots 47.6 percent. Robert Morris, the person, signed the Declaration of Independence "Financier of the Revolution", because of his role in financing the American side in the Revolutionary War. Even he might have had to back Michigan State.

Pittsburgh is the top seed in the East and collectively could do a commercial for the American Beef Council. DeJuan Blair and Tyrell Biggs are wide bodies with tremendous skills and Sam Young is a triple threat on the wing. Levance Fields is underappreciated point guard with 4-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. The Panthers flamed out quickly in Big East Tournament, but should be ready and rested. They are 15-6 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. East Tennessee State loves to get up and down the floor, scoring 78.6 points per game and is fabulous 14-1 ATS in March games since 1997. Only chance for the Bucs to cover the 19.5 points is run and make shots.

On the subject of running, Missouri likes to get of the starting blocks playing 94-feet with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons leading a frenetic pace for the Tigers. Missouri is back in tournament for the first time in six seasons and will want to make a splash with its three senior starters. Misso is a 13-point favorite and has deep, productive bench, which should wear down Ivy champ Cornell. The Big Red doesn’t have great athletes; however is rare tall team from that conference, with frontline of 7’0, 6’7, and 6’6. Cornell shots the deep ball well at 41.5 percent and is 11-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less in last contest. Missouri is 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.

If Syracuse would have lost in first or second game of Big East tournament, would they even have been a fourth or fifth seed? Being listed among the top nine teams in the country seems a bit of a stretch, even if they won and covered seven of last eight. Jonny Flynn has proved he is one of the most dynamic point guards in the country and the Orangemen can tickle the twine with its array of shooters. Stephen F. Austin has a point guard that 5’3, yup it’s true. Eric Bell does a fine job distributing the ball and the Lumberjacks are an excellent defensive team, ranking third in the country in field goal percentage allowed at 37.4. Syracuse is favored by a dozen and is 9-4-1 ATS as neutral site game favorite. Stephen F. Austin can cover if they keep the games in the 60’s.