Wagers to consider for NFL Draft

The New Orleans Saints have been Super Bowl champions for two and half months and the time has come for their 31 competitors to replenish the resources with new faces, hopefully with some that can make a difference right out of college. That’s right, the NFL Draft has arrived and now ESPN and The NFL Network can send their armies of football gurus (66 at last count) into your living rooms for three days instead of two.

If you managed to keep a portion of your football winnings thru the basketball season, the NFL Draft is a fun and unique way to watch the festivities, since you are going to put in the time to watch, why not have a little something riding on it. (Not that were advocating gambling on sports –wink)

We checked out the latest at Sportsbook.com for a number of their props and here are the absolutely “Guaranteed” projected winners from wwwwweneverloseinfootballdotcon.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One

Over Two -650
Under Two +425

Only one way to bet this prop and that is the Over if at all. The St. Louis Rams made their intentions clear by releasing Marc Bulger and that Sam Bradford was their man. Jimmy Clausen in either headed to Oakland, Buffalo or San Francisco, with worst case scenario being Minnesota. That leaves Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. Neither is projected to go this high, unless somebody sees Tebow as multi-faceted performer, which is reach for the first round. A lot of extra juice for hard to win wager.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One

Over 1.5 -380
Under 1.5 +290

C.J. Spiller is a lock in this round with his explosive speed and able to catch the ball on wheel-routes and screens. The Houston Texans were disappointed in Steve Slaton last season and San Diego needs a dependable “every down” back and Ryan Mathews will fit one of their needs. Play the Over as easy winner.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One

Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100

Dez Bryant may have a few personality quirks but talent is what matters in the NFL and he should be first wide receiver taken. Demaryius Thomas is thought to have too much ability and Baltimore wouldn’t mind putting together a young pitch and catch combo with Joe Flacco. Unless there is an unknown issue concerning tight end Germaine Gresham from Oklahoma, Cincinnati or some other NFL team will take him as “best available player”. Bet the Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One

Over 6.5 -300
Under 6.5 +220

Within the first 20 selections, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis are presumed to be taken. Guard Mike Iupati of Idaho will fill a need in Green Bay, New York (Giants) or Pittsburgh, bringing the total to six. The means Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold, would have to be chosen and with the changes Dallas made to its roster, it is a sage bet they will take the seventh offensive linemen in the 2010 Draft. Remember, a lot of teams in the latter part of the first round will consider what happened earlier, take the Over.

Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One

Over 4.5 +160
Under 4.5 -200

It’s safe to assume Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will go two and three in the draft barring a trade and Dan Williams and Jared Odrick will be first-rounders. That leaves Terrance (Mount) Cody as the wild card. Blogger-speak has San Diego thinking about Cody, seeking a replacement for Jamal Williams. If the Chargers are serious about the boom-or-bust Alabama product, they would be wiser to package their second pick (40th overall) to either Detroit or Tampa Bay who are presumed to have taken defensive tackles already and move down just a few slots and maybe get another pick from San Diego to help them. The Under looks like the right choice.

Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One

Over Four -250
Under Four +190

Similar to the quarterback wager, we are working with even number, making this one-way wager. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are foregone conclusions and if both are gone, Atlanta will take Everson Griffen from Michigan with their first choice. Beyond this trio, everyone else at this position is considered a reach, thus good value on the Under.

Jimmy Clausen - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -115

Tough call on the former Domer, with Buffalo probably the best fit for Under play, however he could get killed like he did as a freshman in South Bend with the Bills O-Line. A small play on the Over, but it would be just like Oakland at No. 8 to pick the California raised QB.

Eric Berry - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 6.5 +140
Under 6.5 -180

Another challenging wager. Kansas City and Seattle will have to decide between Berry and an offensive lineman at five or six. The worst the Tennessee safety falls to is Cleveland at No. 7. Supporting the Under, with comparisons to Ed Reed fair and just too talented to pass up.

Russell Okung - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 4.5 +240
Under 4.5 -320

It’s either Okung or Trent Williams to help shore up offensive tackle position for Washington at No. 4 and will bet it is the former Okie State Cowboys that is taken. Bet Under.

Dez Bryant - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 11.5 -145
Under 11.5 +115

Could be wrong, but with Denver trading Brandon Marshall, they are planning on taking the much scrutinized Bryant or Demaryius Thomas with their 11th pick. If Eric Berry would fall to Cleveland, the Browns nab him; otherwise they will take Bryant, which the Broncos would prefer all things considered. Under is the winning side.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st

Ndamukong Suh -500
Gerald McCoy +350

McCoy got a few reporters excited listening to assistant coaches back in February, but once the dust settled Suh was the clear choice for Detroit.

Earl Thomas +120
Joe Haden -150

Going with the upset in this selection. Though Haden is cornerback, Thomas according to scouts is immediately prepared to make an impact at safety, possibly in Jacksonville.

Golden Tate +290
Demaryius Thomas -380

In terms of actual ability, Tate is more polished product with better hands and cleaner route runner. The difference is height, Thomas is 6’3 ½ and Tate is at 5’10 ½. Thomas earns the odd for that reason.

Eric Norwood +135
Jerry Hughes -170

This is almost stealing, Hughes is projected first round pick and Norwood is late second round at best.

Anthony Davis+170
Bryan Bulaga -220

This comes down to team opinions and needs. Davis is probably the better athlete and pass-blocker, however Bulaga is steadier, a better drive-blocker and graded out well in desire. Bulaga rings the bell as winner.

Brian Price - Will he be Selected in the 1st Round

Yes -130
No –Even

Going against the grain and voting No, here’s why. Though Price is elite interior pass rusher, he’s merely average against the run; this is where his instincts show up as ordinary. He has a good motor and doesn’t given up on plays when beaten and could eventually become a top line defensive tackle, with continued improvement. A chancy first rounder, but a solid pick in second round.

Longhorns and Yellow Jackets favored

The final two spots for the BCS will be locked up on Saturday night, with the Big 12 and ACC championships. Texas is a solid favorite and is predicted to be in BCS title game with a victory. The ACC game for all the marbles has a different flavor, as both teams are off disappointing losses to non-conference rivals and are in a rematch of earlier game. A double dip to close out Championship Saturday. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Nebraska vs Texas (-14.5, 47) 8:00E ABC

It wasn’t an easy trek, but Nebraska accomplished one of their goals this season, winning the Big 12 North. The next goal is more challenging aspiration, knocking off Texas for the conference crown. This is the Cornhuskers fifth appearance in the Big 12 championship and the third time they will face Texas. Nebraska (9-3, 7-5 ATS) has to this point stayed with a familiar script, using a conservative offense, a stingy defense and special teams play that consistently wins the field position battle. Only Texas Tech and lucky Colorado has managed to score more than 17 points against the Blackshirts, with Ndamukong Suh, a finalist for the Lombardi Award, leading the assault. The offense needs RB Roy Helu gaining yardage behind the offensive line, giving inaccordant quarterback Zac Lee a chance to complete passes. Nebraska is 25-10 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better.

After missing out on BCS title game a year ago, Texas (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) was expected to come in this season and have Texas-sized chip on their shoulder. One aspect overlooked is every year is divergent. Different players are starters along with backups and attitudes change for individuals still in college. The Longhorns had more than their share of slow starts and always came on to put way opponent in the last 30-45 minutes of game action. Since the close 16-13 victory over Oklahoma, the Texas players have played with greater purpose and man-handled everyone on the schedule. It’s evident the Longhorns are peaking but will face a determined Nebraska club that is has nothing to lose. Texas is 22-5 ATS when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play.

The Texas defense was sliced and diced by Texas A&M last week for 532 yards, but Nebraska lacks that kind of firepower to match those figures. Do expect Lee of the Cornhuskers to throw the ball, especially early, since the Longhorns have allowed 279.3 yards passing in last three contests. Nebraska has covered seven of last 10 against teams with winning records.

Against teams from BCS conferences, Nebraska has scored a whopping 18.3 points per game this season. That means a quick start for focused Mack Brown team has TV viewers heading over to ACC contest. This is attitude game for Longhorns, beat Huskers decidedly and folks start believing they can defeat SEC champion. Let Nebraska hang around playing great defense and people will ask what is wrong with TCU not being in Pasadena for last game of the season. The Horns are 13-4 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards.

Favorites in the Big 12 title games are 8-4-1 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 15

Clemson vs Georgia Tech (Pick) 8:00E ESPN

It’s a rematch from Sept.10 for the ACC championship. In that contest, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Clemson, with RB Anthony Allen scoring on an 82-yard run and Jerrard Tarrant taking a punt back 85 yards. The Tigers weathered the storm and settled in and scored the game’s next 27 points to take the lead. The Yellow Jackets (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS) reestablished their option offense and put together two drives that resulted in field goals, including the winner with under a minute to escape 30-27. Georgia Tech is 5-1 and 3-3 ATS vs. Clemson last six meetings.

Georgia Tech’s option offense had stung opponents for 39 points per game during its eight game winning streak before losing to rival Georgia. One edge they have enjoyed is teams had only one week to prepare for unique offense. Though Clemson will have the same time frame having played South Carolina last week, they’ve had enough time to breakdown tape of their earlier matchup. Coach Paul Johnson, whose 19-6 (15-7 ATS) mark through two seasons is the best in Tech history, has shown his offense can work playing against better competition. The Yellow Jackets are perfect 8-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 310 or less yards a game over the last two seasons.

Clemson (8-4, 7-4 ATS) has finally broken thru, winning seven of eight contests and playing like a team which finally exceeded expectations. Coach Dabo Swinney was finally able to sell the upperclassmen on the idea of being accountable for actions. Seniors like C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford have been among the leaders that by example both verbally and by actions. One noticeable difference also has been the defense. Clemson’s had numerous players with all-ACC ability, but this group is No. 1 in total defense in the league and 14th nationally. The Tigers are 2-11 ATS when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards.

Clemson should have learned something from Georgia’s win, pound away at Yellow Jackets front seven. The Tigers have three running backs each with a different style, make it work and score touchdowns. If Clemson doesn’t run effectively and is forced to pass, they drop to 2-8 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in last game.

Interesting to note in common opponents Clemson is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) winning by almost 17 points a game, while Georgia Tech is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) with a winning margin of 4.2 PPG.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 1

Texas and Texas A&M in Turkey Day Texas Tussle

This has been an unusual season for Texas, who has gone about their business without a great deal of fanfare and is two games away from playing for the national championship. In many ways, the Longhorns (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) season has paralleled quarterback Colt McCoy’s.

Last season, Big 12 field generals were putting up gaudy figures and scoreboards moved like the numbers on the New York Stock Exchange. However this season, McCoy hasn’t always been sharp, Texas has had their share of slow starts, yet when you take away the Oklahoma defensive struggle, they have outscored teams 45-13, awfully impressive. Coach Mack Brown’s team is 5-1 ATS in last six contests as Big 12 road chalk.

The presumption is coach Mike Sherman is wise enough not to bring out the white helmets again, compared to traditional maroon, since Texas A&M is 0-2, losing by 83 points this season. For Aggies fans, it has been both feet in the stirrups and holding the reins tight, with losses of 65-10 and 62-14, mixed in with wins like 56-19 over UAB and 52-30 upset of Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Texas A&M (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) figures to get leveled by the Longhorns, however two years ago they won in College Station 38-30 as touchdown underdogs and in 2005, gave a game effort before falling 40-29 as 28-point underdogs to then # 2 Texas. Off last week’s 38-3 blowout of Baylor, it’s easy to understand that prosperity seldom takes comfort in Aggie-land, with Texas A&M 2-10 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.

The Aggies have covered four of last five at home vs. the Horns and have to have quarterback Jerrod Johnson supply a big game. Texas A&M has shown capacity to play well and if pressured, Johnson can test the Texas secondary with his big arm, which could make things interesting. Coach Sherman’s team averages 268.8 yards passing and Texas has surrendered 240 yards or more passing four times this season (2-1-1 ATS), which adds intrigue if nothing else. The Aggies are 18-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 21-point favorites with total of 62.5. The Longhorns should stop the Aggies running game, being first in the nation at 50.1 yards per game allowed. The Horns are 9-2 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last game. (53 total net rushing yards allowed in last two contests) McCoy should have no problems negotiating 100th ranked Texas A&M defense and they are 24-9 ATS off two or more consecutive Overs.

ESPN will have this Thanksgiving treat at 8:00 Eastern, with Texas is 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS vs. rival A&M, however the home team is 8-2-1 ATS.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It’s not panic time in New England, however things are amiss. Tom Brady is just like the rest of us, after being away from your job after major surgery, it takes awhile to get back in the flow and what you have repaired, you don’t trust 100 percent. Sure the New York Jets brought a lot of pressure, but it’s not anything Brady hasn’t seen before. Yet it was clear, he’s not willing to hang onto the ball the extra tick and has made throws the last two weeks that are un-Brady like. Tough tilt with 2-0 Atlanta next.

What’s the biggest difference in the Jets; they have a coach that believes in them. Yes, Mark Sanchez has played well, but Rex Ryan has convinced his players they are good and gives them the freedom to succeed. That never happened under ol’ happy pants Eric Mangini. By the way, how good is cornerback Derrelle Revis playing? He’s been matched up primarily against Andre Johnson and Randy Moss the last two weeks. The results – eight total catches for 59 yards.

The Green Bay Packers defense was shredded by Cincinnati. The worst part was Cedric “Boat Boy” Benson shredded them on the ground for 141 yards. Coach Mike McCarthy also had a bad game, giving up on the running game that included only 14 rush attempts by running backs in a contest that was either tied or a seven-point game for the first 58 minutes. Not giving more help to offensive tackle who was being destroyed by DE Antawan Odom (five sacks) was ludicrous. Pack at 0-2 St. Louis for first road game.

San Francisco has two division wins already and will be in the NFC West hunt. The 49ers have a defense that lacks big names other than LB Patrick Willis, but don’t be surprised if they are not in Top 10 all season. Offensively, Frank Gore is running with explosiveness again and Shaun Hill won’t make many plays to hurt them. Niners head to Minnesota where they are 0-7 ATS.

San Diego has line problems on both sides of the ball; unfortunately it looks like survival mode again for awhile near Mission Bay. Chargers have Miami on short week at home, however are 0-5 ATS vs the Fins.

Jay Cutler showed Bears fans why he could be great. Cutler hasn’t been in Chicago look enough to find chemistry with receivers, nevertheless against Pittsburgh he was patient and didn’t force plays, which ended up giving his team a chance to win at the end, which they did. Pittsburgh offense is among the many not finishing drives thus far. Chicago has rugged trip to Seattle next and are 5-1 ATS away off a SU dog win.

Did you know Oakland had more first downs (6) in game-winning drive with 2:48 left on the clock, than they had in the entire rest of the game? (5) Raiders playing hard, if not eye-pleasing, could go over .500 for the first time since beginning of 2004 season with a home win over Denver this week.

Dallas was set to secure a real rarity in the NFL until Eli Manning worked magic in two-minute drill. The Cowboys almost won despite 4-0 turnover margin against them. Tony Romo might need glasses since his peripheral vision is awful picking up defensive backs at times. Next week hosting 0-2 Carolina is no bargain for Cowboys who are 4-17-1 ATS off a home loss.

What can you say about Peyton Manning after he led his team to victory. In case you haven’t heard, the Colts only had the ball for 14 minutes and 53 seconds. That's the lowest time of possession for a winning team since the NFL began tracking that statistic in the 1970s. The Indianapolis defense was on the field for 84 plays. Now they have to travel on short week, changing three time zones to Arizona for Sunday. We’ll find out if Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt is really sharp, since it makes all the sense in the world to play hurry up offense to wear down tired Colts defensive legs.

Upon further review in college football

For all the hype about USC quarterback talent, Washington’s Jake Locker is far ahead of anything the Trojans have under center. The junior was the difference-maker along with the defense that stiffened when needed. Though USC may have Top 5 talent, this is rather unemotional bunch for a Pete Carroll team. Not enough leadership within the locker room yet.

So much for Notre Dame’s improved speed and blitzing after allowing 68 points to Michigan schools. Losing Michael Floyd will impact Irish offense again; they will need offensive line and running backs to step up. BCS berth is wishful thinking right now.

Give Iowa a chance to at least cover against Penn State this week. They have good history against the Nittany Lions (7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark) and defense will make Jo Pa’s work to score points.

Nebraska did everything but win the game at Virginia Tech. They ran for over 200 yards on 5.75 yards per carry on what is looking like over-rated Hokies squad. Kudos to Tyrod Taylor for improvisational touchdown pass, yet it’s looking more obvious all the time teams that comparable or better talented teams have a real shot to defeat Va Tech. Next up hot Miami club in Big East revival match.

California might be good enough to beat USC at home in just under two weeks. Jahvid Best is the best runner in the country. The Bears defense can attack the passer and their biggest weakness on defense is at one corner, which USC quarterbacks might not be skilled enough to attack regularly. First for Cal is important matchup in Eugene, where the Ducks are 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

Great setting for Minnesota at home in new stadium, which will improve home field advantage dramatically.

Purdue chewed on the scheduling sandwich and was overrun by Northern Illinois 28-21 as 11.5-point home faves. The Boilermakers were off quality loss at Oregon and have home night game with rival Notre Dame next. The Huskies rushed for 280 yards at 4.9 YPC. First win over Big Ten school for NIU in 21 years. Purdue has won four of last six at home against the Fighting Irish.

Can a team that returns ONE defensive starter really be Top 20 material? It appears so with Cincinnati’s impressive 28-18 dismantling of Oregon State on the road. If the Heisman race wasn’t about all about the hype, QB Tony Pike would be in every discussion right now. Coach Brian Kelly is about to land big time job if the Bearcats finish 9-3 or 10-2 off BCS berth. The speculation starts here, Kelly to Colorado for right contract.

Quick Hitters- Georgia will need new defensive coordinator, but have to be impressed with Bulldogs win at Arkansas. The Hogs QB Ryan Mallet has a gun, but has to become better decision-maker. ---West Virginia is doomed with Bill Stewart as coach. It will close but no cigar for the Mountaineers, with some reason why they ALMOST win against similar teams. ---Reports had Colt McCoy not feeling feel, however, mechanically he’s not sound after being one of the best last season. It appears he’s trying to live up to someone’s expectations.

Study the numbers

It was a pedestrian weekend overall in college football, with underdogs 27-25 ATS and the totals split right down the middle of the 52 games played. Most sportsbooks did quite well with two public favorites BYU and Texas failing to cover. Maybe it’s a fluke, but following totals until game time is quite profitable at the moment. In games where the total has moved three or more points in one direction, betting the trend is 39-19-1, 65.5 percent on the college gridiron. (The NFL is 4-2 on moves of 2.5-points or more)

Touchdown or greater favorites in the NFL were heinous 0-3 ATS, with favorites 7-9 overall. Home underdogs were again losers at 2-3 and are 3-6 ATS on the season.

Dressed for Sunday Success

We came up 1.5-points short of going 4-0 in CFB this week and instead settled for 3-1. I searched everywhere but couldn’t find a great system, but found a damn good one at 78.4 percent. The Top Trend is in division dandy and Ken off a brilliant Saturday looks to continue winning ways with his Top Play as Free Pick. Good luck

What I thought yesterday – What the hell happened to Colt McCoy, the Notre Dame defense, the USC offense, the Georgia defense, BYU and when does a team bring back ONE starter on defense start 3-0 (Cincinnati)? Special thanks to the Mangino’s for the late cover over Duke.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This non-qualifying system is 40-11, ATS over the last 26 years at 78.4 percent and shows Kansas City and Jacksonville as the Play Against teams.

Free Football Trend -2) The Atlanta Falcons are 1-12 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LLC was perfect 6-0 yesterday and is playing Da Raaiders today with the +3.

Check out today’s Guaranteed NFL Plays.

The Platinum Sheet Forecaster was 14-2 ATS last week in NFL.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Ten College Football Bets to Consider in 2009

When the college football schedules were officially released, it is a terrific time to go through the various leagues and forecast what the potentially lucrative spots are to profit from. The factors may include revenge, scheduling and look-aheads. Here is ten specific dates on the calendar which are worthy of consideration for wagers.

September 3
South Carolina at N. C. State

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. The Wolfpack were embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina last year and have return engagement in Raleigh this go-round. The Gamecocks lost a number of talented defenders and last year’s offense was a mess, rushing for just 94.1 yards per game. This matchup will once again be on ESPN and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 ATS in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on Sept. 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. Motivated Wolfpack do the job.

September 19
Texas Tech at Texas

The first month of the season has only one game that truly matters to returning Texas players, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders kept the Longhorns out of the BCS title game in 2008 and its payback time. Senior QB Colt McCoy has a veteran offensive line and experienced receiving corps, led by Jordan Shipley. Normally coach Mike Leach’s offense does not slow down much when new signal caller is brought in, however expected starter Taylor Potts will be starting on the road for the first time in Austin on a Saturday night, after facing softies North Dakota and Rice. The home team is 8-3 ATS in last 11, add one more W to that total with team in burnt orange burning in-state rival.

September 26
South Florida at Florida State

South Florida returns its two stars; quarterback Matt Grothe and defensive lineman George Selvie. Coach Jim Leavitt has been scheduling softer since joining the Big East and has three milk cartons (Wofford, @ West. Ky. and Charleston Southern) before facing Florida State. Even with quality players like Grothe and Selvie, the lack of big time competition will hurt USF at Tallahassee. The Seminoles will have already played Miami-Fl. and at BYU and be better prepared. Florida State isn’t about to let an in-state squad build reputation at their expense and buries the Bulls with skill and depth.

October 17
Wake Florida at Clemson

More than anything, this is nefarious scheduling slot for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons suffered four ACC losses last season and their first three conference games are against teams they lost to. The last one is a home game against Maryland, whom they were white-washed by 24-0 last season at College Park. Clemson on the other hand will be off a bye and should be ready after losing as a favorite last year 12-7 at Wake Forest. With the visitor 2-6-2 ATS the last decade, emotionally worn-out Wake doesn’t fire against rested foe.

October 24
Oregon State at USC

The line on this Pac-10 clash probably won’t be fair, however it might not matter. By the end of October, the quarterback will be well-situated, behind a stellar offensive line for perennial power USC and pursuing revenge will be utmost on the Trojans mind after last season’s debacle. Oregon State has holes to fill on the defensive and offensive lines and though the Beavers should be settled, the wave of emotion will be too much to overcome. The visitor is 3-8 ATS and coach Pete Carroll will have his Cheshire cat grin after encounter.

November 7
Houston at Tulsa

The Tulsa offense won’t be as potent as the last several seasons, nevertheless the defense brought back eight starters and they have long memories. The Golden Hurricane started 8-0 in 2008 and had BCS talk swirling around them until they lost at Arkansas 30-23. Two weeks later, still afflicted with pang of first loss, Tulsa ran into hot Houston club who hung 70 points on them, in 40-point loss. (That’s 7 followed by zero) The Cougars are favored to end Tulsa’s claim to C-USA West title this campaign, however they are off huge Southern Miss home game and are stymied by rare November Hurricane in Oklahoma.

November 14
Utah at TCU

Utah grabbed all the headlines in the Mountain West Conference in 2008, with perfect 13-0 season. The Utes won three games by three points or less last season and arguably the toughest was against TCU, who led almost the entire way. The Horned Frogs did everything right, but could not stop Utah on their final deciding drive in 13-10 loss. TCU is the host this campaign and the core players that led to 11-2 season return. With Utah looking for its road legs after three straight home games, the Horned Frogs will be well prepared and are 17-7-1 as single digit conference favorites at Amon G. Cater Stadium.

November 21
Penn State at Michigan State

Penn State will start the season as the #6 team in The Edge, but not too far down the line is Michigan State at 20th. Third year coach Mark Dantonio has upgraded the talent at East Lansing to where the Spartans will have legitimate chance to finish second in the Big Ten, if the cards fall their way. Dantonio is a very serious type and expects his players not to accept losing. Michigan State was pummeled at Penn State 49-18 as 16.5-point underdogs and set up to be home dogs this time around. With excess provocation and the home team 9-3 ATS, expect Sparty to retake the Land Grant Trophy in 2009.

November 27
Rutgers at Louisville

The last Thursday night game of last season was memorable for Rutgers and an absolute nightmare for Louisville. The Scarlet Knights crushed the Cardinals 63-14, out-gaining them 671 to 318. Many are not that optimistic about Louisville’s chances of regaining recent past glory, yet if coach Steve Kragthorpe expects to be coaching beyond this season at present location, he needs his team to watch film of last season for this day after Thanksgiving contest. If the Big East plays out as presumed, Rutgers might take the ‘Ville for granted, looking ahead to season ending encounter at home against West Virginia.

November 28
Rice at Houston

The Cougars may have a tough time in Tulsa, but this offensive juggernaut has some dishing out to do them selves. Houston only needed to win at fellow city disputant Rice, for right to play in C-USA title game, instead was blasted 56-42, in a game that wasn’t that close. Quarterback Case Keenum is dynamic and the Cougars should be right back in same position this time on home turf. Rice loses all its important offensive weapons and these Owls are not going to be noted for defense. Houston may use 70+ point calling card again versus Rice. The home team is 7-3 ATS.

Texas and Ohio State Wagering Preview

Considering the circumstances involved, tons of plot lines for the Fiesta Bowl with these two heavyweights. One of the issues with the BCS games spread out over several days, it can sway the opinion of the public in a hurry and cause even more confusion. Who didn’t think USC was as good as or better than any team in the country after pummeling Penn State for the first three quarters of the Rose Bowl. The very next day unbeaten Utah ambushed Alabama at their own game, beating them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in decisive 31-17 victory. That night and the next day, it made everybody stop and realize the Utes just beat a team that was 15 minutes away for playing for national title having led Florida 20-17 entering the final quarter of the SEC championship game. The general consensus was Utah should finish no worse than number two in the polls.

This brings us to Texas (11-1, 9-3 ATS), who is the next flavor in line trying to regain the trust of the public and restate their argument, that yes it was them who was wronged, since neither USC or Utah beat Oklahoma in the first place. The Longhorn coaches for sure and likely the players realize fellow Big 12 partners Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have failed to hold up their end of the bargain in bowls in making the argument the Big 12 was the big cheese this last football campaign.

Texas really needs to come out and obliterate Ohio State (10-2, 5-6 ATS) to get back in the front of people minds and hope Oklahoma losses to make their case even stronger, so Longhorns fans and the media can whine for weeks. If Colt McCoy and rest of his teammates play like teams of the past with a 7-1 ATS record after a win by 21 or more points, they should be in good shape.

If you think about it, Texas is in a very similar situation to the 2004 Auburn team that got left behind, with Oklahoma and USC playing in the BCS title game that season. Everyone assumed Auburn who to fighting mad to go pound Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Instead the Tigers controlled the game behind Jason Campbell and a stout defense, but never put Virginia Tech away and the Hokies scored late to cover the six-points in 16-13 loss. Though USC crushed Oklahoma 55-19 and some wondered why Auburn wasn’t chosen instead of the Sooners, the unimpressive performance in the Sugar Bowl prevented an uprising. Does the same fate await Texas?

The Longhorns are terrible bowlers. Texas is 8-16 ATS all-time and even worse 5-12 ATS as favorites. Bookmaker.com opened Mack Brown’s team at 11.5-point favorites and after much scrutiny, has seen them fall all the way down to eight points.

Are you old enough to remember when the Big Ten used to be revered as football conference? Like most of the major cities in the Rust Belt area, with declining population, high unemployment and other maladies, the Big Ten isn’t even mentioned in conversations about the top conference in college football. Ohio State has been swept up in those very conversations with its recent failures. Jim Tressel’s teams have failed to come up in more big games than A-Rod.

This is the Buckeyes big opportunity to repair some of the pride of the Scarlet and Gray. Nobody at all is talking about Ohio State, eerily similar to discussion this time of year about the Indians and the Reds. Coach Tressel has to hope this club can improve upon18-9 ATS record vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more points per game.

The Big Ten is abysmal 1-5 and 2-4 ATS in bowl games, with the Buckeyes the last lone hope for their tattered banner to wave somewhat proudly. The defense that allowed 13.1 points per game has to play at a level that most expected all season, not the one that was shredded by USC. The Buckeyes will have to make life hard on McCoy and hope they give just yards and not points. Terrelle Pryor will need the game of his young life finding receivers against a mediocre Texas secondary. Beanie Wells can be a big confidence builder if he can bust a few long runs. Ohio State is 2-7 ATS in last nine non-conference games.

Coach Brown will sell his team on jumping hard and fast on Ohio State, trying to give them that, “Oh no, not this again” feeling. If they can rush the passer and control Wells, they choke off the Buckeyes offense. Protecting McCoy is imperative and the receivers have to be prepared to take some big hits from linebackers and secondary that likes to smack people. Texas is 9-3 ATS in last 12 favorite roles.

The Fiesta Bowl has seen the underdog win and cover five of last seven, with Ohio State participating in two of those victories.